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Oil prices, exchange rates and emerging stock markets

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  • Basher, Syed Abul
  • Haug, Alfred A.
  • Sadorsky, Perry

Abstract

While two different streams of literature exist investigating 1) the relationship between oil prices and emerging market stock prices and 2) the relationship between oil prices and exchange rates, relatively little is known about the dynamic relationship between oil prices, exchange rates and emerging market stock prices. This paper proposes and estimates a structural vector autoregression model to investigate the dynamic relationship between these variables. Impulse responses are calculated in two ways (standard and projection based methods). The model supports stylized facts. In particular, positive shocks to oil prices tend to depress emerging market stock prices and US dollar exchange rates in the short run. The model also captures stylized facts regarding movements in oil prices. A positive oil production shock lowers oil prices while a positive shock to real economic activity increases oil prices. There is also evidence that increases in emerging market stock prices increases oil prices.

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Paper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 30140.

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Date of creation: 05 Apr 2011
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Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:30140

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Keywords: Emerging market stock prices; oil prices; exchange rates;

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Cited by:
  1. Wang, Yudong & Wu, Chongfeng & Yang, Li, 2013. "Oil price shocks and stock market activities: Evidence from oil-importing and oil-exporting countries," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(4), pages 1220-1239.
  2. Krenar Avdulaj & Jozef Barunik, 2013. "Are benefits from oil - stocks diversification gone? A new evidence from a dynamic copulas and high frequency data," Papers 1307.5981, arXiv.org.
  3. Shahbaz, Muhammad & Tiwari, Aviral Kumar & Tahir, Mohammad Iqbal, 2013. "Analyzing Time-Frequency Relationship between Oil Price and Exchange Rate in Pakistan through Wavelets," MPRA Paper 48086, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 05 Jul 2013.
  4. M. Ibrahim Turhan & Erk Hacihasanoglu & Ugur Soytas, 2012. "Oil Prices and Emerging Market Exchange Rates," Working Papers 1201, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey.
  5. Bülent Alta & Mert Topcu & Ebru Erdoðan, 2013. "Nevsehir University, Department of Economics, Nevsehir, Turkey," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, Econjournals, vol. 3(Special), pages 7 - 13.
  6. Lóránd István KRÁLIK, 2012. "Macroeconomic Variables and Stock Market Evolution," Romanian Statistical Review Supplement, Romanian Statistical Review, vol. 60(2), pages 197-203, May.
  7. Chen, Wei-Peng & Choudhry, Taufiq & Wu, Chih-Chiang, 2013. "The extreme value in crude oil and US dollar markets," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 191-210.
  8. Buetzer, Sascha & Habib, Maurizio Michael & Stracca, Livio, 2012. "Global exchange rate configurations: Do oil shocks matter?," Working Paper Series 1442, European Central Bank.
  9. Lin, Boqiang & Wesseh, Presley K. & Appiah, Michael Owusu, 2014. "Oil price fluctuation, volatility spillover and the Ghanaian equity market: Implication for portfolio management and hedging effectiveness," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 172-182.
  10. Syed Abul, Basher, 2014. "Stock markets and energy prices," MPRA Paper 53863, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  11. Beckmann, Joscha & Czudaj, Robert, 2013. "Is there a homogeneous causality pattern between oil prices and currencies of oil importers and exporters?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 665-678.
  12. Natanelov, Valeri & McKenzie, Andrew M. & Van Huylenbroeck, Guido, 2013. "Crude oil–corn–ethanol – nexus: A contextual approach," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 504-513.
  13. Stavros Degiannakis & George Filis & Renatas Kizys, 2013. "Oil price shocks and stock market volatility: evidence from European data," Working Papers 161, Bank of Greece.
  14. Ronayne, David, 2011. "Which Impulse Response Function?," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) 971, University of Warwick, Department of Economics.
  15. Yanan He & Jing Zhao, . "Extreme Dependence between Crude Oil and the Stock Markets in China: A Sector," Papers 2013-12-05, Working Paper.
  16. Chen, Wang & Hamori, Shigeyuki & Kinkyo, Takuji, 2014. "Macroeconomic impacts of oil prices and underlying financial shocks," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 1-12.
  17. Śmiech, Sławomir & Papież, Monika, 2013. "Fossil fuel prices, exchange rate, and stock market: A dynamic causality analysis on the European market," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 118(1), pages 199-202.
  18. Tiwari, Aviral Kumar & Mutascu, Mihai Ioan & Albulescu, Claudiu Tiberiu, 2013. "The influence of the international oil prices on the real effective exchange rate in Romania in a wavelet transform framework," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 714-733.
  19. Reboredo, Juan Carlos & Rivera-Castro, Miguel A. & Zebende, Gilney F., 2014. "Oil and US dollar exchange rate dependence: A detrended cross-correlation approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 132-139.
  20. Mohammad Joarder & Monir Ahmed & Tahsina Haque & Syed Hasanuzzaman, 2014. "An empirical testing of informational efficiency in Bangladesh capital market," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 47(1), pages 63-87, February.
  21. Gazi Salah Uddin & Ilhan Ozturk & Ahmed Taneem Muzaffar & Duc Khuong Nguyen, 2014. "The time scale behavior of oil-stock relationships: what we learn from the ASEAN-5 countries," Working Papers 2014-441, Department of Research, Ipag Business School.

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