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Abstract

Shocks to the real price of oil may reflect oil supply shocks, shocks to the global demand for all industrial commodities, or demand shocks that are specific to the crude oil market. Each shock has different effects on the real price of oil and on US macroeconomic aggregates. Changes in the composition of shocks help explain why regressions of macroeconomic aggregates on oil prices tend to be unstable. Evidence that the recent surge in oil prices was driven primarily by global demand shocks helps explain why this shock so far has failed to cause a major recession in the United States. (JEL E31, E32, Q41, Q43)

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File URL: http://www.aeaweb.org/articles.php?doi=10.1257/aer.99.3.1053
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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by American Economic Association in its journal American Economic Review.

Volume (Year): 99 (2009)
Issue (Month): 3 (June)
Pages: 1053-69

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Handle: RePEc:aea:aecrev:v:99:y:2009:i:3:p:1053-69

Note: DOI: 10.1257/aer.99.3.1053
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Find related papers by JEL classification:

• E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
• E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
• Q41 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Demand and Supply
• Q43 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Energy and the Macroeconomy

References

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1. den Haan, Wouter J. & Sumner, Steven W., 2004. "The comovement between real activity and prices in the G7," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 48(6), pages 1333-1347, December.
   
   • Den Haan, Wouter & Sumner, Steven, 2001. "The Comovements between Real Activity and Prices in the G7," CEPR Discussion Papers 2801, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
   • Wouter J. Den Haan & Steven Sumner, 2001. "The Comovements between Real Activity and Prices in the G7," NBER Working Papers 8195, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
2. Kilian, Lutz & Gonçalves, Sílvia, 2002. "Bootstrapping Autoregressions with Conditional Heteroskedasticity of Unknown Form," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2002,26, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre.
   
   • Goncalves, Silvia & Kilian, Lutz, 2004. "Bootstrapping autoregressions with conditional heteroskedasticity of unknown form," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 123(1), pages 89-120, November.
   • Lutz Kilian & Silvia Goncalves, 2002. "Bootstrapping autoregressions with conditional heteroskedasticity of unknown form," Working Paper Series 196, European Central Bank.
   • GONÇALVES, Silvia & KILIAN, Lutz, 2003. "Bootstrapping Autoregressions with Conditional Heteroskedasticity of Unknown Form," Cahiers de recherche 2003-01, Universite de Montreal, Departement de sciences economiques.
   • Gonçalves, Sílvia & KILIAN, Lutz, 2003. "Bootstrapping Autoregressions with Conditional Heteroskedasticity of Unknown Form," Cahiers de recherche 01-2003, Centre interuniversitaire de recherche en économie quantitative, CIREQ.
   • Sílvia Gonçalves & Lutz Kilian, 2003. "Bootstrapping Autoregressions with Conditional Heteroskedasticity of Unknown Form," CIRANO Working Papers 2003s-17, CIRANO.
3. Cooley, Thomas F. & Leroy, Stephen F., 1985. "Atheoretical macroeconometrics: A critique," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 16(3), pages 283-308, November.
4. Kilian, Lutz, 2005. "Exogenous Oil Supply Shocks: How Big Are They and How Much do they Matter for the US Economy?," CEPR Discussion Papers 5131, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
   
   • Lutz Kilian, 2008. "Exogenous Oil Supply Shocks: How Big Are They and How Much Do They Matter for the U.S. Economy?," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 90(2), pages 216-240, May.
5. James D. Hamilton, 2000. "What is an Oil Shock?," NBER Working Papers 7755, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
   
   • Hamilton, James D., 2003. "What is an oil shock?," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 113(2), pages 363-398, April.
6. den Haan, Wouter J., 2000. "The comovement between output and prices," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(1), pages 3-30, August.
   
   • Tom Doan, . "RATS programs to replicate Den Haan JME(2000) correlation of comovements," Statistical Software Components RTZ00042, Boston College Department of Economics.

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