Making a match: combining theory and evidence in policy-oriented macroeconomic modelling
AbstractA persistent question arising in the development of models for the analysis of macroeconomic policy has been the relative role of economic theory and evidence (data) in their construction. This paper looks at some strategies for transforming a Conceptual Model to become a Data-Adjusted Model, and how to adjust further to an Operational Model for policy analysis. Using a typical dynamic GE small open economy calibrated to UK data, we examine how some simple but formal econometric tests can be applied to test the match of the CM to the data. We also use the CM as a laboratory to assess model-building strategies. Our example suggests that, since one will never be sure that the choice of variables is appropriate, it is better to start with a CM and work towards making it match the data than attempting the converse
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Society for Computational Economics in its series Computing in Economics and Finance 2005 with number 462.
Date of creation: 11 Nov 2005
Date of revision:
Other versions of this item:
- Kapetanios, G. & Pagan, A. & Scott, A., 2007. "Making a match: Combining theory and evidence in policy-oriented macroeconomic modeling," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 136(2), pages 565-594, February.
- C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2005-11-19 (All new papers)
- NEP-DGE-2005-11-19 (Dynamic General Equilibrium)
- NEP-MAC-2005-11-19 (Macroeconomics)
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Stephanie Schmitt-Grohe & Martin Uribe, 2001.
"Closing Small Open Economy Models,"
Departmental Working Papers
200115, Rutgers University, Department of Economics.
- Burnside, Craig & Eichenbaum, Martin, 1996.
"Factor-Hoarding and the Propagation of Business-Cycle Shocks,"
American Economic Review,
American Economic Association, vol. 86(5), pages 1154-74, December.
- Craig Burnside & Martin Eichenbaum, 1994. "Factor Hoarding and the Propagation of Business Cycles Shocks," NBER Working Papers 4675, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Zellner, Arnold & Palm, Franz, 1974.
"Time series analysis and simultaneous equation econometric models,"
Journal of Econometrics,
Elsevier, vol. 2(1), pages 17-54, May.
- ZELLNER, Arnold & PALM, Franz, . "Time series analysis and simultaneous equation econometric models," CORE Discussion Papers RP -173, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
- Garratt, A. & Lee, K. & Pesaran, M. H. & Shin, Y., 1998.
"A Long-run Structural Macro-econometric Model of the UK,"
Cambridge Working Papers in Economics
9812, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
- Anthony Garratt & Kevin Lee & M. Hashem Pesaran & Yongcheol Shin, 2003. "A Long run structural macroeconometric model of the UK," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 113(487), pages 412-455, 04.
- A Garratt & K Lee & M Pesaran & Yongcheol Shin, 2004. "A long run structural macroeconometric model of the UK," ESE Discussion Papers 35, Edinburgh School of Economics, University of Edinburgh.
- Ireland, Peter N., 2004.
"A method for taking models to the data,"
Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control,
Elsevier, vol. 28(6), pages 1205-1226, March.
- Peter Ireland, 1999. "A Method for Taking Models to the Data," Computing in Economics and Finance 1999 1233, Society for Computational Economics.
- Peter N. Ireland, 1999. "A Method for Taking Models to the Data," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 421, Boston College Department of Economics.
- Tom Doan, . "RATS programs to replicate Ireland's JEDC 2004 estimation of DSGE model," Statistical Software Components RTZ00104, Boston College Department of Economics.
- Peter N. Ireland, 1999. "A method for taking models to the data," Working Paper 9903, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
- Vahid, F. & Issler, J.V., 2001.
"The Importance Of Common Cyclical Features in VAR Analysis: A Monte-Carlo Study,"
Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers
2/01, Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics.
- Vahid, Farshid & Issler, Joao Victor, 2002. "The importance of common cyclical features in VAR analysis: a Monte-Carlo study," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 109(2), pages 341-363, August.
- Vahid, Farshid & Issler, João Victor, 2001. "The Importance of Common Cyclical Features in VAR Analysis: A Monte-Carlo Study," Economics Working Papers (Ensaios Economicos da EPGE) 417, FGV/EPGE Escola Brasileira de Economia e Finanças, Getulio Vargas Foundation (Brazil).
- Forni, Mario & Lippi, Marco & Reichlin, Lucrezia, 2003. "Opening the Black Box: Structural Factor Models versus Structural VARs," CEPR Discussion Papers 4133, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Altug, Sumru, 1989.
"Time-to-Build and Aggregate Fluctuations: Some New Evidence,"
International Economic Review,
Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 30(4), pages 889-920, November.
- Sumru Altug, 1986. "Time to build and aggregate fluctuations: some new evidence," Working Papers 277, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
- Coletti, D. & Hunt, B. & Rose, D. & Tetlow, R., 1996. "The Bank of Canada's New Quarterly Projection Model. Part 3 , the Dynamic Model : QPM," Technical Reports 75, Bank of Canada.
- Michael P. Clements & David F. Hendry, 2001. "Forecasting Non-Stationary Economic Time Series," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262531895, January.
- Stephen Murchison & Andrew Rennison & Zhenhua Zhu, 2004. "A Structural Small Open-Economy Model for Canada," Working Papers 04-4, Bank of Canada.
- Forni, Mario & Giannone, Domenico & Lippi, Marco & Reichlin, Lucrezia, 2007.
"Opening the black box: structural factor models with large cross-sections,"
Working Paper Series
0712, European Central Bank.
- Forni, Mario & Giannone, Domenico & Lippi, Marco & Reichlin, Lucrezia, 2009. "Opening The Black Box: Structural Factor Models With Large Cross Sections," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 25(05), pages 1319-1347, October.
- Mario Forni & Domenico Giannone & Marco Lippi & Lucrezia Reichlin, 2007. "Opening the Black Box: Structural Factor Models with Large Cross-Sections," Center for Economic Research (RECent) 008, University of Modena and Reggio E., Dept. of Economics.
- Mario Forni & Domenico Giannone & Marco Lippi & Lucrezia Reichlin, 2008. "Opening the Black Box: Structural Factor Models with Large Cross-Sections," Working Papers ECARES 2008_036, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
- Binder,M. & Pesaran,H.M., 1995.
"Multivariate Rational Expectations Models and Macroeconomic Modelling: A Review and Some New Results,"
Cambridge Working Papers in Economics
9415, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
- Michael Binder & M. Hashem Pesaran, 1994. "GAUSS and Matlab codes for Multivariate Rational Expectations Models and Macroeconometric Modelling: A Review and Some New Results," QM&RBC Codes 74, Quantitative Macroeconomics & Real Business Cycles.
- Blanchard, Olivier Jean & Kiyotaki, Nobuhiro, 1987. "Monopolistic Competition and the Effects of Aggregate Demand," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 77(4), pages 647-66, September.
- Gali, Jordi, 1996. "Unemployment in dynamic general equilibrium economies," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 40(3-5), pages 839-845, April.
- Frank Smets & Raf Wouters, 2003.
"An Estimated Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Model of the Euro Area,"
Journal of the European Economic Association,
MIT Press, vol. 1(5), pages 1123-1175, 09.
- Frank Smets & Raf Wouters, 2002. "An estimated dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model of the euro area," Working Paper Research 35, National Bank of Belgium.
- Engle, Robert F & Kozicki, Sharon, 1993. "Testing for Common Features: Reply," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 11(4), pages 393-95, October.
- A. R. Pagan & J. C. Robertson, 1998.
"Structural Models Of The Liquidity Effect,"
The Review of Economics and Statistics,
MIT Press, vol. 80(2), pages 202-217, May.
- Wallis, Kenneth F, 1977. "Multiple Time Series Analysis and the Final Form of Econometric Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 45(6), pages 1481-97, September.
- Robert F. Engle & Sharon Kozicki, 1990.
"Testing For Common Features,"
NBER Technical Working Papers
0091, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Rotemberg, Julio J, 1982. "Sticky Prices in the United States," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 90(6), pages 1187-1211, December.
- Basher, Syed Abul & Haug, Alfred A. & Sadorsky, Perry, 2012.
"Oil prices, exchange rates and emerging stock markets,"
Elsevier, vol. 34(1), pages 227-240.
- Syed Abul Basher & Alfred Haug & Perry Sadorsky, 2010. "Oil Prices, Exchange Rates and Emerging Stock Markets," Working Papers 1014, University of Otago, Department of Economics, revised Sep 2010.
- Basher, Syed Abul & Haug, Alfred A. & Sadorsky, Perry, 2011. "Oil prices, exchange rates and emerging stock markets," MPRA Paper 30140, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Jääskelä, Jarkko P. & Jennings, David, 2011. "Monetary policy and the exchange rate: Evaluation of VAR models," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(7), pages 1358-1374.
- Mala Raghavan & George Athanasopoulos & Param Silvapulle, 2013. "Canadian Monetary Policy Analysis using a Structural VARMA Model," Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers 4/13, Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics.
- Dufour, Jean-Marie & Taamouti, Abderrahim, 2010.
"Short and long run causality measures: Theory and inference,"
Journal of Econometrics,
Elsevier, vol. 154(1), pages 42-58, January.
- Jean-Marie Dufour & Abderrahim Taamouti, 2008. "Short and long run causality measures: theory and inference," Economics Working Papers we083720, Universidad Carlos III, Departamento de Economía.
- Martin Fukac & Adrian Pagan, 2010.
"Limited information estimation and evaluation of DSGE models,"
Journal of Applied Econometrics,
John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 25(1), pages 55-70.
- Martin Fukac & Adrian Pagan, 2008. "Limited Information Estimation and Evaluation of DSGE Models," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series DP2008/11, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
- Liu, Philip & Theodoridis, Konstantinos, 2010.
"DSGE model restrictions for structural VAR identification,"
Bank of England working papers
402, Bank of England.
- Philip Liu & Konstantinos Theodoridis, 2012. "DSGE Model Restrictions for Structural VAR Identification," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 8(4), pages 61-95, December.
- Massimo Franchi & Anna Vidotto, 2012. "A simple check for VAR representations of DSGE models," DSS Empirical Economics and Econometrics Working Papers Series 2012/5, Centre for Empirical Economics and Econometrics, Department of Statistics, "Sapienza" University of Rome.
- Jarkko Jääskelä & David Jennings, 2010. "Monetary Policy and the Exchange Rate: Evaluation of VAR Models," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp2010-07, Reserve Bank of Australia.
- Franchi, Massimo & Vidotto, Anna, 2013. "A check for finite order VAR representations of DSGE models," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 120(1), pages 100-103.
- D.S. Poskitt & Wenying Yao, 2012. "VAR Modeling and Business Cycle Analysis: A Taxonomy of Errors," Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers 11/12, Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Christopher F. Baum).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.