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The Excess Co-Movement of Commodity Prices

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  • Robert S. Pindyck
  • Julio J. Rotemberg

Abstract

This paper tests and confirms the existence of a puzzling phenomenon - the prices of largely unrelated raw commodities have a persistent tendency to move together. We show that this comovement of prices is well in excess of anything that can be explained by the common effects of past, current, or expected future values of macroeconomic variables such as inflation, industrial production, interest rates, and exchange rates. These results are a rejection of the standard competitive model of commodity price formation with storage.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 2671.

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Date of creation: Jul 1988
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Publication status: published as The Economic Journal, Dec. 1990
Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:2671

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  1. Williams, Jeffrey, 1987. "Futures Markets: A Consequences of Risk Aversion or Transactions Costs?," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, University of Chicago Press, vol. 95(5), pages 1000-1023, October.
  2. Eichenbaum, Martin S., 1984. "Rational expectations and the smoothing properties of inventories of finished goods," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 14(1), pages 71-96, July.
  3. Turnovsky, Stephen J, 1983. "The Determination of Spot and Futures Prices with Storable Commodities," Econometrica, Econometric Society, Econometric Society, vol. 51(5), pages 1363-87, September.
  4. Goldberger, Arthur S, 1972. "Maximum-Likelihood Estimation of Regressions Containing Unobservable Independent Variables," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 13(1), pages 1-15, February.
  5. Eichenbaum, Martin, 1983. "A rational expectations equilibrium model of inventories of finished goods and employment," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 12(2), pages 259-277.
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  1. La crise 2007-2008 : le marché du riz
    by geoffreylorre@gmail.com (Geoffrey Lorre) in BS Initiative on 2014-04-22 00:00:00
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