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Futures Markets: A Consequences of Risk Aversion or Transactions Costs?

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  • Williams, Jeffrey

Abstract

A two-period model of an industry of risk-neutral processors who have nonlinear production costs and who face transact ions costs in the spot and futures markets is put forth as a countere xample to the models of commodity markets in which processors' risk a version plays the major role. The model's equilibrium exhibits the sa lient endogenous features of actual commodity markets, namely, that t he futures price is below the current spot price, that processors hol d inventories despite this opportunity cost, that those holding inven tories are short in futures, and that processors as a group hold an u nbalanced, usually net short, position in the futures market. Copyright 1987 by University of Chicago Press.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by University of Chicago Press in its journal Journal of Political Economy.

Volume (Year): 95 (1987)
Issue (Month): 5 (October)
Pages: 1000-1023

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Handle: RePEc:ucp:jpolec:v:95:y:1987:i:5:p:1000-1023

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Cited by:
  1. Pindyck, Robert S. & Rotemberg, Julio., 1987. "The excess co-movement of commodity prices," Working papers 1969-87., Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Sloan School of Management.
  2. Adilov, Nodir, 2012. "Strategic use of forward contracts and capacity constraints," International Journal of Industrial Organization, Elsevier, vol. 30(2), pages 164-173.
  3. Ron Alquist & Lutz Kilian, 2010. "What do we learn from the price of crude oil futures?," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 25(4), pages 539-573.
  4. Robert S. Pindyck, 1990. "Inventories and the Short-Run Dynamics of Commodity Prices," NBER Working Papers 3295, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  5. Sykuta, Michael E., 1996. "Futures trading and supply contracting in the oil refining industry," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 2(4), pages 317-334, July.
  6. Carter, Colin A. & Smith, Aaron D., 2004. "The Market Effect of a Food Scare: The Case of Genetically Modified StarLink Corn," Working Papers 11997, University of California, Davis, Department of Agricultural and Resource Economics.
  7. Smith, Aaron D., 2004. "Partially Overlapping Time Series: A New Model for Volatility Dynamics in Commodity Futures," Working Papers 11978, University of California, Davis, Department of Agricultural and Resource Economics.
  8. Hansen, Kristiana & Howitt, Richard E. & Williams, Jeffrey C., 2005. "An Econometric Test of the Endogeneity of Institutions: Water Markets in the Western United States," 2005 Annual meeting, July 24-27, Providence, RI 19548, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).

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