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Inventories and the Short-Run Dynamics of Commodity Prices

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Author Info
Robert S. Pindyck

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Abstract

The idea that wages rise relative to alternatives as job seniority accumulates is the foundation of the theory of specific human capital, as well as other widely accepted theories of compensation. The fact that persons with longer job tenures typically earn higher wages tends to support these views, yet this çvidence ignores the decisions that have brought individuals to the combination of wages, job tenure, and experience that are observed in survey data. Allowing for sources of bias generated by these decisions, this paper uses longitudinal data to estimate a lower bound on the avenge return to job seniority among adult men. I find that 10 years of current job seniority raises the wage of the typical male worker in the U.S. by over 25 percent. This is an estimate of what the typical worker would lose if his job were to end exogenously. Overall, the evidence implies that accumulation of specific capital is an important ingredient of the typical employment relationship, and of life-cycle earnings and productivity as well. Continuation of these relationships has substantial specific value for workers.

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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 3295.

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Date of creation: May 1994
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Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:3295

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Blanchard, Olivier J, 1983. "The Production and Inventory Behavior of the American Automobile Industry," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 91(3), pages 365-400, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  2. Fama, Eugene F & French, Kenneth R, 1988. " Business Cycles and the Behavior of Metals Prices," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 43(5), pages 1075-93, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. French, Kenneth R., 1983. "A comparison of futures and forward prices," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 12(3), pages 311-342, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Eichenbaum, Martin, 1983. "A rational expectations equilibrium model of inventories of finished goods and employment," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 12(2), pages 259-277. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Williams, Jeffrey, 1987. "Futures Markets: A Consequences of Risk Aversion or Transactions Costs?," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 95(5), pages 1000-1023, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Ramey, Valerie A, 1989. "Inventories as Factors of Production and Economic Fluctuations," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 79(3), pages 338-54, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Valerie A. Ramey & Kenneth D. West, 1997. "Inventories," NBER Working Papers 6315, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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    • Ramey, Valerie A. & West, Kenneth D., 1999. "Inventories," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & M. Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 13, pages 863-923 Elsevier. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Ray C. Fair, 1989. "The Production Smoothing Model Is Alive and Well," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 896, Cowles Foundation, Yale University. [Downloadable!]
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  9. Cox, John C. & Ingersoll, Jonathan Jr. & Ross, Stephen A., 1981. "The relation between forward prices and futures prices," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 9(4), pages 321-346, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. Miron, Jeffrey A & Zeldes, Stephen P, 1988. "Seasonality, Cost Shocks, and the Production Smoothing Models of Inventories," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 56(4), pages 877-908, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  11. Eichenbaum, Martin S., 1984. "Rational expectations and the smoothing properties of inventories of finished goods," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(1), pages 71-96, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  12. Brennan, Michael J & Schwartz, Eduardo S, 1985. "Evaluating Natural Resource Investments," Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 58(2), pages 135-57, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  13. Kahn, James A, 1987. "Inventories and the Volatility of Production," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 77(4), pages 667-79, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  14. Blinder, Alan S, 1986. "Can the Production Smoothing Model of Inventory Behavior Be Saved?," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 101(3), pages 431-53, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  15. Blinder, Alan S, 1982. "Inventories and Sticky Prices: More on the Microfoundations of Macroeconomics," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 72(3), pages 334-48, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  16. Bresnahan, Timothy F & Suslow, Valerie Y, 1985. "Inventories as an Asset: The Volatility of Copper Prices," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 26(2), pages 409-24, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  17. Eichenbaum, Martin, 1989. "Some Empirical Evidence on the Production Level and Production Cost Smoothing Models of Inventory Investment," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 79(4), pages 853-64, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  18. Walter N. Thurman, 1988. "Speculative Carryover: An Empirical Examination of the U.S. Refined Copper Market," RAND Journal of Economics, The RAND Corporation, vol. 19(3), pages 420-437, Autumn. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  19. Lester G. Telser, 1958. "Futures Trading and the Storage of Cotton and Wheat," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 66, pages 233. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  20. West, Kenneth D, 1986. "A Variance Bounds Test of the Linear Quadratic Inventory Model," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 94(2), pages 374-401, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
Full references

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Luca Pieroni & Matteo Ricciarelli, 2005. "Modelling Dynamic Storage Function in Commodity Markets:Theory and Evidence," Quaderni del Dipartimento di Economia, Finanza e Statistica 11/2005, Università di Perugia, Dipartimento Economia, Finanza e Statistica. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. Alquist, Ron & Kilian, Lutz, 2007. "What Do We Learn from the Price of Crude Oil Futures?," CEPR Discussion Papers 6548, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Antonio Spilimbergo, 1995. "Prueba de la hipótesis de comportamiento colusivo entre los miembros de la OPEP," RES Working Papers 4017, Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department. [Downloadable!]
  4. Matteo Iacoviello & Fabio Schiantarelli & Scott Schuh, 2007. "Input and output inventories in general equilibrium," Working Papers 07-16, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  5. Karali, Berna & Power, Gabriel J., 2009. "What Explains High Commodity Price Volatility? Estimating a Unified Model of Common and Commodity-Specific, High- and Low-Frequency Factors," 2009 Annual Meeting, July 26-28, 2009, Milwaukee, Wisconsin 49576, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association. [Downloadable!]
  6. Mark Bils & James A. Kahn, 2000. "What Inventory Behavior Tells Us about Business Cycles," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 90(3), pages 458-481, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  7. Severin Borenstein & Andrea Shepard, 1996. "Sticky Prices, Inventories, and Market Power in Wholesale Gasoline Markets," NBER Working Papers 5468, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  8. Bukenya, James & Labys, Walter C., 2007. "Do fluctuations in wine stocks affect wine prices?," Working Papers 37317, American Association of Wine Economists. [Downloadable!]
  9. Stanislav Radchenko, 2004. "Anticipated and unanticipated effects of crude oil prices and oil inventory changes on gasoline prices," Microeconomics 0406001, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
  10. Melisso Boschi & Luca Pieroni, 2008. "Aluminium market and the macroeconomy," Quaderni del Dipartimento di Economia, Finanza e Statistica 42/2008, Università di Perugia, Dipartimento Economia, Finanza e Statistica. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  11. Richard D. Farmer, 2006. "Risk-Smoothing Across Time and the Demand for Inventories: A Mean-Variance Approach," Eastern Economic Journal, Eastern Economic Association, vol. 32(4), pages 699-722, Fall. [Downloadable!]
  12. Antonio Spilimbergo, 1995. "Testing the Hypothesis of Collusive Behavior Among OPEC Members," RES Working Papers 4016, Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  13. Yungsan Kim & Woon Gyu Choi, 2001. "Has Inventory Investment Been Liquidity-Constrained? Evidence from U.S. Panel Data," IMF Working Papers 01/122, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  14. Considine, Timothy J. & Larson, Donald F., 1996. "Uncertainty and the price for crude oil reserves," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1655, The World Bank. [Downloadable!]
  15. Robert S. Pindyck, 2003. "Volatility In Natural Gas And Oil Markets," Working Papers 0312, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Center for Energy and Environmental Policy Research. [Downloadable!]
  16. Thille, H., 2002. "Inventions & Price Volatility in a Cournot Duopoly," Working Papers 2002-4, University of Guelph, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  17. Michael Ye & John Zyren & Joanne Shore, 2003. "Elasticity of demand for relative petroleum inventory in the short run," Atlantic Economic Journal, International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 31(1), pages 87-102, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  18. Pindyck, Robert S., 1998. "The long-run evolution of energy prices," Working papers WP 4044-98., Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Sloan School of Management. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  19. Robert S. Pindyck, 1993. "The Present Value Model of Rational Commodity Pricing," NBER Working Papers 4083, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  20. Karali, Berna & Dorfman, Jeffrey H. & Thurman, Walter N., 2008. "Do Inventory and Time-to-Delivery Effects Vary Across Futures Contracts? Insights from a Smoothed Bayesian Estimator," 2008 Annual Meeting, July 27-29, 2008, Orlando, Florida 6084, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association). [Downloadable!]
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