This file is part of IDEAS, which uses RePEc data


[ Papers | Articles | Software | Books | Chapters | Authors | Institutions | JEL Classification | NEP reports | Search | New papers by email | Author registration | Rankings | Volunteers | FAQ | Blog | Help! ]

The Production Smoothing Model Is Alive and Well

Author info | Abstract | Publisher info | Download info | Related research | Statistics
Author Info
Ray C. Fair () (Cowles Foundation, Yale University)

Additional information is available for the following registered author(s):

Abstract

Monthly data in physical units for seven industries are used to examine the production smoothing hypothesis. The results strongly support this hypothesis. Significant effects of expected future sales on current production are found for four industries, and the estimated decision equations for all seven industries imply production smoothing behavior. The previous negative results regarding the hypothesis appear to be due to the use of poor data, particularly the shipments and inventory data of the Department of Commerce.

Download Info
To download:

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. Information about this may be contained in the File-Format links below. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL: http://cowles.econ.yale.edu/P/cp/p07a/p0740.pdf
File Format: application/pdf
File Function:
Download Restriction: no
File URL: http://cowles.econ.yale.edu/P/cd/d08b/d0896.pdf
File Format: application/pdf
File Function:
Download Restriction: no

Publisher Info
Paper provided by Cowles Foundation, Yale University in its series Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers with number 896.

Download reference. The following formats are available: HTML (with abstract), plain text (with abstract), BibTeX, RIS (EndNote, RefMan, ProCite), ReDIF
Length: 21 pages
Date of creation: Feb 1989
Date of revision:
Publication status: Published in Journal of Monetary Economics (1989), 24: 353-370
Handle: RePEc:cwl:cwldpp:896

Note: CFP 740.
Contact details of provider:
Postal: Yale University, Box 208281, New Haven, CT 06520-8281 USA
Phone: (203) 432-3702
Fax: (203) 432-6167
Web page: http://cowles.econ.yale.edu/
More information through EDIRC

Order Information:
Postal: Cowles Foundation, Yale University, Box 208281, New Haven, CT 06520-8281 USA

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its listing, contact: (Glena Ames).

Related research
Keywords: Production smoothing; investment; inventories;

Other versions of this item:

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Blanchard, Olivier J, 1983. "The Production and Inventory Behavior of the American Automobile Industry," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 91(3), pages 365-400, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  2. Andrews, Donald W K & Fair, Ray C, 1988. "Inference in Nonlinear Econometric Models with Structural Change," Review of Economic Studies, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 55(4), pages 615-39, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Hansen, Lars Peter, 1982. "Large Sample Properties of Generalized Method of Moments Estimators," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(4), pages 1029-54, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Alan S. Blinder, 1981. "Retail Inventory Behavior and Business Fluctuations," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 12(1981-2), pages 443-520. [Downloadable!]
  5. Hayashi, Fumio & Sims, Christopher A, 1983. "Nearly Efficient Estimation of Time Series Models with Predetermined, but Not Exogenous, Instruments," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 51(3), pages 783-98, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Miron, Jeffrey A & Zeldes, Stephen P, 1988. "Seasonality, Cost Shocks, and the Production Smoothing Models of Inventories," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 56(4), pages 877-908, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  7. Ghali, Moheb A, 1987. "Seasonality, Aggregation and the Testing of the Production Smoothing Hypothesis," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 77(3), pages 464-69, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. West, Kenneth D, 1986. "A Variance Bounds Test of the Linear Quadratic Inventory Model," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 94(2), pages 374-401, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
Full references

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Jonathan McCarthy & Egon Zakrajsek, 1998. "Microeconomic inventory adjustment and aggregate dynamics," Staff Reports 54, Federal Reserve Bank of New York. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. Mark Bils & James A. Kahn, 2000. "What Inventory Behavior Tells Us about Business Cycles," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 90(3), pages 458-481, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  3. Pindyck, Robert S., 1990. "Inventories and the short-run dynamics of commodity prices," Working papers 3133-90., Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Sloan School of Management. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  4. Donald S. Allen, 1997. "Do inventories moderate fluctuations in output?," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Jul, pages 39-50. [Downloadable!]
  5. Jonas D.M. Fisher & Andreas Hornstein, 1998. "(S,s) Inventory policies in general equilibrium," Working Paper 97-07, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  6. Levy, Daniel & Müller, Georg & Chen, Allan (Haipeng) & Bergen, Mark & Dutta, Shantanu, 2008. "Holiday Price Rigidity and Cost of Price Adjustment," MPRA Paper 13095, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  7. Jonathan McCarthy & Egon Zakrajsek, 2000. "Microeconomic inventory adjustment: evidence from U.S. firm-level data," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2000-24, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  8. Robert E. Carpenter & Steven M. Fazzari & Bruce C. Petersen, 1994. "Inventory (Dis)Investment, Internal Finance Fluctuations, and the Business Cycle," Macroeconomics 9401001, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
  9. Donald S. Allen, 1999. "Seasonal production smoothing," Working Papers 1999-004, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. [Downloadable!]
  10. Brad R. Humphreys & Louis J. Maccini & Scott Schuh, 1997. "Input and output inventories," Working Papers 97-7, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  11. Lai, Richard, 2005. "Bullwhip in a Spanish Shop," MPRA Paper 4758, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
  12. Considine, Timothy J. & Larson, Donald F., 1996. "Uncertainty and the price for crude oil reserves," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1655, The World Bank. [Downloadable!]
  13. J. Joseph Beaulieu & Jeffrey A. Miron, 1990. "A Cross Country Comparison of Seasonal Cycles and Business Cycles," NBER Working Papers 3459, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  14. Stephen G. Cecchetti & Anil Kashyap & David Wilcox, 1995. "Why Firms Smooth Seasonals in a Boom," Working Papers 001, Ohio State University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  15. Scott Schuh, 1996. "Evidence on the link between firm-level and aggregate inventory behavior," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 96-46, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
  16. Donald S. Allen, 1999. "Seasonal production smoothing," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Sep, pages 21-40. [Downloadable!]
  17. Steven N. Durlauf & Louis J. Maccini, 1993. "Measuring Noise in Inventory Models," NBER Working Papers 4487, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  18. George J. Hall & John Rust, 1999. "An Empirical Model of Inventory Investment by Durable Commodity Intermediaries," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1228, Cowles Foundation, Yale University. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  19. George J. Hall, 1996. "Non-convex costs and capital utilization: a study of production and inventories at automobile assembly plants," Working Paper Series, Macroeconomic Issues WP-96-25, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago. [Downloadable!]
  20. Stephen G. Cecchetti & Anil K Kashyap & David W. Wilcox, 1995. "Do Firms Smooth the Seasonal in Production in a Boom? Theory and Evidence," NBER Working Papers 5011, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Statistics
Access and download statistics

Did you know? IDEAS was launched in September 1997.

This page was last updated on 2009-11-12.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Department of Economics, College of Liberal Arts and Sciences, University of Connecticut using RePEc data on a server sponsored by the Society for Economic Dynamics.