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Seasonal production smoothing

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  • Donald S. Allen

Abstract

Empirical tests of the production-smoothing hypothesis have yielded mixed results. In this paper, Donald Allen looks for, and finds evidence of, seasonal production smoothing in 15 out of 25 manufacturing series and 8 out of 10 retail series, using detrended seasonally unadjusted data. The equivalent test using seasonally adjusted data were negative for all 35 series. The results suggest that seasonally adjusted data obscure short-term production-smoothing.

Suggested Citation

  • Donald S. Allen, 1999. "Seasonal production smoothing," Working Papers 1999-004, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedlwp:1999-004
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Fair, Ray C., 1989. "The production-smoothing model is alive and well," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 24(3), pages 353-370, November.
    2. Miron, Jeffrey A & Zeldes, Stephen P, 1988. "Seasonality, Cost Shocks, and the Production Smoothing Models of Inventories," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 56(4), pages 877-908, July.
    3. Allen, Donald S., 1997. "A multi-sector inventory model," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 32(1), pages 55-87, January.
    4. Jeffrey A. Miron, 1996. "The Economics of Seasonal Cycles," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262133237, December.
    5. Kollintzas, Tryphon, 1995. "A generalized variance bounds test with an application to the Holt et al. inventory model," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 19(1-2), pages 59-89.
    6. Dimelis, Sophia P. & Ghali, Moheb A., 1994. "Classical and variance bounds tests of the production smoothing hypothesis," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 35(1-3), pages 15-22, June.
    7. West, Kenneth D, 1986. "A Variance Bounds Test of the Linear Quadratic Inventory Model," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 94(2), pages 374-401, April.
    8. Krane, Spencer D & Braun, Stephen N, 1991. "Production Smoothing Evidence from Physical-Product Data," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 99(3), pages 558-581, June.
    9. Carpenter, Robert E & Levy, Daniel, 1998. "Seasonal Cycles, Business Cycles, and the Comovement of Inventory Investment and Output," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 30(3), pages 331-346, August.
    10. Ramey, Valerie A, 1991. "Nonconvex Costs and the Behavior of Inventories," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 99(2), pages 306-334, April.
    11. Alan S. Blinder, 1981. "Retail Inventory Behavior and Business Fluctuations," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 12(2), pages 443-520.
    12. Beason, Richard, 1993. "Tests of production smoothing in selected Japanese industries," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 381-394, June.
    13. Lai, Kon S, 1991. "Aggregation and Testing of the Production Smoothing Hypothesis," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 32(2), pages 391-403, May.
    14. Ghali, Moheb A, 1987. "Seasonality, Aggregation and the Testing of the Production Smoothing Hypothesis," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 77(3), pages 464-469, June.
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    Cited by:

    1. Mollick, Andre Varella, 2004. "Production smoothing in the Japanese vehicle industry," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 91(1), pages 63-74, September.
    2. Wang, Xun & Disney, Stephen M., 2016. "The bullwhip effect: Progress, trends and directions," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 250(3), pages 691-701.

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    Keywords

    Business cycles; Productivity; Seasonal variations (Economics);
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