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The Economics of Seasonal Cycles

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  • Jeffrey A. Miron

    ()
    (Harvard University)

Abstract

Historically, economists sought to understand the economic significance of macro fluctuations associated with seasons. During the 1920s and 1930s, the focus shifted to business cycles, and seasonal fluctuations were treated as noise that could be removed from data before analysis. Jeffrey Miron seeks to reverse this trend, arguing that seasonal fluctuations have much to teach macroeconomists. He analyzes the economic forces that produce seasonality and discusses the lessons about economic behavior that result from this analysis. Compared to existing work on seasonality, Miron's book focuses on economic rather than purely statistical issues, looking at which of the alternative statistical models of seasonality are plausible for economic variables, and asking why seasonal fluctuations in economic variables require special treatment relative to other kinds of fluctuations. Miron first addresses the question of why macroeconomists should be interested in seasonal as opposed to business cycle fluctuations. In Part I he identifies restrictions that are uniquely available for seasonal fluctuations; reviews evidence suggesting that seasonal and business cycle fluctuations are driven by similar economic propagation mechanisms; and shows that seasonal fluctuations raise many of the same questions for welfare and policy analysis as do business cycle fluctuations. In Part II, Miron provides a useful summary of results in the literature that analyzes specific examples of seasonal fluctuations to shed light on the nature of aggregate fluctuations in general. Topics covered include the production smoothing model of inventories, the relation between seasonal fluctuations in interest rates and the founding of the Federal Reserve, and the design of seasonal monetary policy.

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Bibliographic Info

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This book is provided by The MIT Press in its series MIT Press Books with number 0262133237 and published in 1996.

Volume: 1
Edition: 1
ISBN: 0-262-13323-7
Handle: RePEc:mtp:titles:0262133237

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Web page: http://mitpress.mit.edu

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References

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  1. N. Gregory Mankiw & Jeffrey A. Miron, 1991. "Should The Fed Smooth Interest Rates? The Case of Seasonal Monetary Policy," NBER Working Papers 3388, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Faig, Miquel, 1989. "Seasonal Fluctuations and the Demand for Money," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 104(4), pages 847-61, November.
  3. Diamond, Peter & Fudenberg, Drew, 1989. "Rational Expectations Business Cycles in Search Equilibrium," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 97(3), pages 606-19, June.
  4. Barsky, Robert B & Miron, Jeffrey A, 1989. "The Seasonal Cycle and the Business Cycle," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 97(3), pages 503-34, June.
  5. Osborn, Denise R & Smith, Jeremy P, 1989. "The Performance of Periodic Autoregressive Models in Forecasting Seasonal U. K. Consumption," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 7(1), pages 117-27, January.
  6. Boldrin, Michele & Woodford, Michael, 1990. "Equilibrium models displaying endogenous fluctuations and chaos : A survey," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 25(2), pages 189-222, March.
  7. Topel, Robert H, 1984. "Experience Rating of Unemployment Insurance and the Incidence of Unemployment," Journal of Law and Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 27(1), pages 61-90, April.
  8. Cooper, Russell W. & Haltiwanger, John Jr., 1992. "Macroeconomic implications of production bunching : Factor demand linkages," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(1), pages 107-127, October.
  9. Mankiw, N Gregory & Miron, Jeffrey A, 1986. "The Changing Behavior of the Term Structure of Interest Rates," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 101(2), pages 211-28, May.
  10. Eichenbaum, Martin, 1989. "Some Empirical Evidence on the Production Level and Production Cost Smoothing Models of Inventory Investment," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 79(4), pages 853-64, September.
  11. Long, John B, Jr & Plosser, Charles I, 1983. "Real Business Cycles," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 91(1), pages 39-69, February.
  12. Edward C. Prescott, 1986. "Theory ahead of business cycle measurement," Staff Report 102, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
  13. R. Anton Braun & Charles L. Evans, 1991. "Seasonality and equilibrium business cycle theories," Working Paper Series, Macroeconomic Issues 91-23, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
  14. Feldstein, Martin S, 1978. "The Effect of Unemployment Insurance on Temporary Layoff Unemployment," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 68(5), pages 834-46, December.
  15. Davidson, James E H, et al, 1978. "Econometric Modelling of the Aggregate Time-Series Relationship between Consumers' Expenditure and Income in the United Kingdom," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 88(352), pages 661-92, December.
  16. Bell, William R & Hillmer, Steven C, 1984. "Issues Involved with the Seasonal Adjustment of Economic Time Series," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 2(4), pages 291-320, October.
  17. Krane, Spencer D & Braun, Stephen N, 1991. "Production Smoothing Evidence from Physical-Product Data," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 99(3), pages 558-81, June.
  18. Shleifer, Andrei, 1986. "Implementation Cycles," Scholarly Articles 3451303, Harvard University Department of Economics.
  19. Simon Kuznets, 1933. "Seasonal Variations in Industry and Trade," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number kuzn33-1, October.
  20. Hyllerberg, S. & Engle, R.F. & Granger, C.W.J. & Yoo, B.S., 1988. "Seasonal Integration And Cointegration," Papers 0-88-2, Pennsylvania State - Department of Economics.
  21. Osborn, Denise R, 1988. "Seasonality and Habit Persistence in a Life Cycle Model of Consumptio n," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 3(4), pages 255-66, October-D.
  22. Dixit, Avinash K & Stiglitz, Joseph E, 1977. "Monopolistic Competition and Optimum Product Diversity," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 67(3), pages 297-308, June.
  23. repec:fth:calaec:27-89 is not listed on IDEAS
  24. Kahn, J.A., 1990. "The Seasonal And Cyclical Behavior Of Inventories," RCER Working Papers 223, University of Rochester - Center for Economic Research (RCER).
  25. Ghysels, E., 1990. "The Business Cycle, The Seasonal Cycle Or Just Any Cycle," Cahiers de recherche 9036, Centre interuniversitaire de recherche en ├ęconomie quantitative, CIREQ.
  26. Beaulieu, J Joseph & MacKie-Mason, Jeffrey K & Miron, Jeffrey A, 1992. "Why Do Countries and Industries with Large Seasonal Cycles also Have Large Business Cycles?," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 107(2), pages 621-56, May.
  27. N. Gregory Mankiw & Michael D. Whinston, 1986. "Free Entry and Social Inefficiency," RAND Journal of Economics, The RAND Corporation, vol. 17(1), pages 48-58, Spring.
  28. Cooper, Russell & John, Andrew, 1988. "Coordinating Coordination Failures in Keynesian Models," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 103(3), pages 441-63, August.
  29. King, Robert G & Plosser, Charles I, 1984. "Money, Credit, and Prices in a Real Business Cycle," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 74(3), pages 363-80, June.
  30. Newey, Whitney & West, Kenneth, 2014. "A simple, positive semi-definite, heteroscedasticity and autocorrelation consistent covariance matrix," Applied Econometrics, Publishing House "SINERGIA PRESS", vol. 33(1), pages 125-132.
  31. Ghysels, E., 1986. "A Study Towards a Dynamic Theory of Seasonality for Economic Time Series," Cahiers de recherche 8612, Universite de Montreal, Departement de sciences economiques.
  32. Bell, William R. & Wilcox, David W., 1993. "The effect of sampling error on the time series behavior of consumption data," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 55(1-2), pages 235-265.
  33. Lucas, Robert E., 1977. "Understanding business cycles," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 5(1), pages 7-29, January.
  34. A. Michael Spence, 1977. "Entry, Capacity, Investment and Oligopolistic Pricing," Bell Journal of Economics, The RAND Corporation, vol. 8(2), pages 534-544, Autumn.
  35. Kydland, Finn E & Prescott, Edward C, 1982. "Time to Build and Aggregate Fluctuations," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(6), pages 1345-70, November.
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