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The Interest Rate, Learning, and Inventory Investment

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  • Louis J. Maccini
  • Bartholomew J. Moore
  • Huntley Schaller

Abstract

This paper presents a model that provides an explanation, based on regime switching in the real interest rate and learning, of why tests based on stock adjustment models, Euler equations, or decision rules—which emphasize short-run fluctuations in inventories and the interest rate—are unlikely to uncover a negative relationship between inventories and the real interest rate. The model, however, predicts that inventories will respond to long-run movements, that is, to regime shifts in the real interest rate. Tests emphasizing cointegration techniques confirm this prediction and show a significant long-run relationship between inventories and the real interest rate.

Suggested Citation

  • Louis J. Maccini & Bartholomew J. Moore & Huntley Schaller, 2004. "The Interest Rate, Learning, and Inventory Investment," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 94(5), pages 1303-1327, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:aea:aecrev:v:94:y:2004:i:5:p:1303-1327
    Note: DOI: 10.1257/0002828043052295
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    Cited by:

    1. Christoph Görtz & Christopher Gunn & Thomas Lubik, "undated". "What Drives Inventory Accumulation? News on Rates of Return and Marginal Costs," Carleton Economic Papers 19-09, Carleton University, Department of Economics.
    2. Mark Lasky, 2018. "CBO’s Model for Forecasting Business Investment: Working Paper 2018-09," Working Papers 54871, Congressional Budget Office.
    3. Jason Barr, 2013. "Skyscrapers And Skylines: New York And Chicago, 1885–2007," Journal of Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 53(3), pages 369-391, August.
    4. Schaller, Huntley, 2006. "Econometric Issues in Estimating User Cost Elasticity," Economics Series 194, Institute for Advanced Studies.
    5. Kosacoff, Bernardo & Ramos, Adrián, 2006. "Microeconomic behavior in high uncertainty environments: the case of Argentina," Documentos de Proyectos 3538, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL).
    6. Maccini, Louis J. & Moore, Bartholomew & Schaller, Huntley, 2015. "Inventory behavior with permanent sales shocks," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 290-313.
    7. Khakbaz, Amir & Mensi, Walid & Tirkolaee, Erfan Babaee & Hammoudeh, Shawkat & Simic, Vladimir, 2023. "The combined effects of interest and inflation rates on inventory systems: A comparative analysis across countries," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 266(C).
    8. Mr. Daniel Leigh, 2005. "Estimating the Implicit Inflation Target: An Application to U.S. Monetary Policy," IMF Working Papers 2005/077, International Monetary Fund.
    9. Leigh, Daniel, 2008. "Estimating the Federal Reserve's implicit inflation target: A state space approach," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 32(6), pages 2013-2030, June.
    10. Jason Barr, 2013. "Skyscrapers And Skylines: New York And Chicago, 1885–2007," Journal of Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 53(3), pages 369-391, August.
    11. Thomas A. Lubik & Wing Leong Teo, 2009. "Inventories and optimal monetary policy," Economic Quarterly, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, vol. 95(Fall), pages 357-382.
    12. Bustos, Emil, 2023. "The Effect of Financial Constraints on Inventory Holdings," Working Paper Series 1463, Research Institute of Industrial Economics.
    13. Luca Benati & Thomas A. Lubik, 2014. "Sales, Inventories And Real Interest Rates: A Century Of Stylized Facts," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 29(7), pages 1210-1222, November.
    14. Selale Tuzel & Christopher S. Jones, 2009. "Inventory Investment and the Cost of Capital," 2009 Meeting Papers 298, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    15. Junayed, Sadaquat & Khan, Hashmat, 2009. "Inventory investment and the real interest rate," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal (2007-2020), Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel), vol. 3, pages 1-5.
    16. Schwartzman, Felipe, 2014. "Time to produce and emerging market crises," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 37-52.
    17. Steven J. Davis & James A. Kahn, 2008. "Interpreting the Great Moderation: Changes in the Volatility of Economic Activity at the Macro and Micro Levels," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 22(4), pages 155-180, Fall.
    18. Ahmad, Munir & Zhu, Xiwei & Wu, Yiyun, 2022. "The criticality of international tourism and technological innovation for carbon neutrality across regional development levels," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 182(C).
    19. Jones, Christopher S. & Tuzel, Selale, 2013. "Inventory investment and the cost of capital," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 107(3), pages 557-579.

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