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Do inventories moderate fluctuations in output?

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Author Info
Donald S. Allen
Abstract

Inventories are widely believed to serve as a buffer stock against unexpected fluctuations in demand, allowing firms to plan production more efficiently. If so, we would expect production to vary less than sales and inventory to move in the opposite direction to sales. However, research finds that production varies more than sales and that there is a positive correlation between changes in inventory and changes in sales. These findings imply that inventories are not being used to smooth production and do not serve as a buffer for uncertain demand. Donald S. Allen examines firm-level data and finds that firms may use inventories to smooth production, but only partially.

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Article provided by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis in its journal Review.

Volume (Year): (1997)
Issue (Month): Jul ()
Pages: 39-50
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Handle: RePEc:fip:fedlrv:y:1997:i:jul:p:39-50

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Keywords: Inventories ; Business cycles;

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Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Fair, Ray C., 1989. "The production-smoothing model is alive and well," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 24(3), pages 353-370, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  2. Donald S. Allen, 1995. "Changes in inventory management and the business cycle," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Jul, pages 17-26. [Downloadable!]
  3. Jeffrey A. Miron & Stephen P. Zeldes, . "Seasonality, Cost Shocks and the Production Smoothing Model of Inventories," Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research Working Papers 01-87, Wharton School Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research.
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  4. Krane, Spencer D & Braun, Stephen N, 1991. "Production Smoothing Evidence from Physical-Product Data," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 99(3), pages 558-81, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Blinder, Alan S, 1986. "Can the Production Smoothing Model of Inventory Behavior Be Saved?," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 101(3), pages 431-53, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  6. Lovell, Michael C., 1994. "Researching inventories: Why haven't we learned more?," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 35(1-3), pages 33-41, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Ghali, Moheb A, 1987. "Seasonality, Aggregation and the Testing of the Production Smoothing Hypothesis," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 77(3), pages 464-69, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. West, Kenneth D, 1986. "A Variance Bounds Test of the Linear Quadratic Inventory Model," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 94(2), pages 374-401, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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