The Seasonal Cycle in U.S. Manufacturing
AbstractThis paper examines the seasonal cycle in the manufacturing sector of the U.S. economy. we present estimates of the seasonal patterns in monthly data for 2-digit industries, and we demonstrate the similarity of the seasonal cycle and the business cycle in manufacturing with respect to several key stylized facts about business cycles. The results are an important addition to those in Barsky and Miron (1989) because the monthly data for manufacturing display interesting seasonal fluctuations that are hidden in the quarterly data examined by Barsky and Miron. The most significant is a sharp slowdown in July followed by a significant rebound in August. We argue that this event is not easily explained by technology or preference shifts but instead results from synergies across economic agents.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 3450.
Date of creation: Sep 1990
Date of revision:
Contact details of provider:
Postal: National Bureau of Economic Research, 1050 Massachusetts Avenue Cambridge, MA 02138, U.S.A.
Web page: http://www.nber.org
More information through EDIRC
Other versions of this item:
You can help add them by filling out this form.
CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
- Hall, George J., 2000.
"Non-convex costs and capital utilization: A study of production scheduling at automobile assembly plants,"
Journal of Monetary Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 45(3), pages 681-716, June.
- George J. Hall, 1997. "Non-Convex Costs and Capital Utilization: A Study of Production Scheduling at Automobile Assembly Plants," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1169, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
- John Haltiwanger & Russell Cooper, 1992.
"The Aggregate Implications Of Machine Replacement: Theory And Evidence,"
92-12, Center for Economic Studies, U.S. Census Bureau.
- Cooper, Russell & Haltiwanger, John, 1993. "The Aggregate Implications of Machine Replacement: Theory and Evidence," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 83(3), pages 360-82, June.
- Russell Cooper & John Haltiwanger, 1993. "The Aggregate Implications of Machine Replacement: Theory and Evidence," NBER Working Papers 3552, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Stephen G. Cecchetti & Anil K Kashyap & David W. Wilcox, 1995. "Do Firms Smooth the Seasonal in Production in a Boom? Theory and Evidence," NBER Working Papers 5011, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Tinsley, P A & Krieger, Reva, 1997.
"Asymmetric Adjustments of Price and Output,"
Western Economic Association International, vol. 35(3), pages 631-52, July.
- P. A. Tinsley & Reva Krieger, 1997. "Asymmetric adjustments of price and output," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 1997-31, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Peter A. Tinsley & Reva Krieger, . "Asymmetric Adjustments of Price and Output," Computing in Economics and Finance 1996 _059, Society for Computational Economics.
- Franses, Philip Hans & Hylleberg, Svend & Lee, Hahn S., 1995. "Spurious deterministic seasonality," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 48(3-4), pages 249-256, June.
- Eric Ghysels & Denise R. Osborn & Paulo M. M. Rodrigues, 1999. "Seasonal Nonstationarity and Near-Nonstationarity," CIRANO Working Papers 99s-05, CIRANO.
- Johri, Alok, 2001. "Markups and the Seasonal Cycle," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 23(3), pages 367-395, July.
- Darne, Olivier, 2004. "Seasonal cointegration for monthly data," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 82(3), pages 349-356, March.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ().
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.