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The Seasonal Cycle in U.S. Manufacturing

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Author Info
J. Joseph Beaulieu
Jeffrey A. Miron

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Abstract

This paper examines the seasonal cycle in the manufacturing sector of the U.S. economy. we present estimates of the seasonal patterns in monthly data for 2-digit industries, and we demonstrate the similarity of the seasonal cycle and the business cycle in manufacturing with respect to several key stylized facts about business cycles. The results are an important addition to those in Barsky and Miron (1989) because the monthly data for manufacturing display interesting seasonal fluctuations that are hidden in the quarterly data examined by Barsky and Miron. The most significant is a sharp slowdown in July followed by a significant rebound in August. We argue that this event is not easily explained by technology or preference shifts but instead results from synergies across economic agents.

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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 3450.

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Date of creation: Sep 1990
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Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:3450

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  1. P. A. Tinsley & Reva Krieger, 1997. "Asymmetric adjustments of price and output," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 1997-31, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. Stephen G. Cecchetti & Anil K Kashyap & David W. Wilcox, 1995. "Do Firms Smooth the Seasonal in Production in a Boom? Theory and Evidence," NBER Working Papers 5011, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Eric Ghysels & Denise R. Osborn & Paulo M. M. Rodrigues, 1999. "Seasonal Nonstationarity and Near-Nonstationarity," CIRANO Working Papers 99s-05, CIRANO. [Downloadable!]
  4. John Haltiwanger & Russell Cooper, 1992. "The Aggregate Implications Of Machine Replacement: Theory And Evidence," Working Papers 92-12, Center for Economic Studies, U.S. Census Bureau. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
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