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The Seasonal Cycle in U.S. Manufacturing

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  • J. Joseph Beaulieu
  • Jeffrey A. Miron

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Abstract

This paper examines the seasonal cycle in the manufacturing sector of the U.S. economy. we present estimates of the seasonal patterns in monthly data for 2-digit industries, and we demonstrate the similarity of the seasonal cycle and the business cycle in manufacturing with respect to several key stylized facts about business cycles. The results are an important addition to those in Barsky and Miron (1989) because the monthly data for manufacturing display interesting seasonal fluctuations that are hidden in the quarterly data examined by Barsky and Miron. The most significant is a sharp slowdown in July followed by a significant rebound in August. We argue that this event is not easily explained by technology or preference shifts but instead results from synergies across economic agents.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Boston University - Industry Studies Programme in its series Papers with number 0012.

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Date of creation: Aug 1990
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Handle: RePEc:fth:bostin:0012

Contact details of provider:
Postal: Boston University, Industry Studies Program; Department of Economics, 270 Bay Road, Boston, Massachusetts 02215.
Phone: 617-353-4389
Fax: 617-353-444
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Web page: http://www.bu.edu/econ/isp/
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Cited by:
  1. Peter A. Tinsley & Reva Krieger, . "Asymmetric Adjustments of Price and Output," Computing in Economics and Finance 1996 _059, Society for Computational Economics.
  2. J. Joseph Beaulieu & Jeffrey A. Miron, 1992. "Seasonal Unit Roots in Aggregate U.S. Data," NBER Technical Working Papers 0126, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Franses, Philip Hans & Hylleberg, Svend & Lee, Hahn S., 1995. "Spurious deterministic seasonality," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 48(3-4), pages 249-256, June.
  4. Jeffrey A. Miron, 1996. "The Economics of Seasonal Cycles," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262133237, December.
  5. Johri, Alok, 2001. "Markups and the Seasonal Cycle," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 23(3), pages 367-395, July.
  6. George J. Hall, 1997. "Non-Convex Costs and Capital Utilization: A Study of Production Scheduling at Automobile Assembly Plants," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1169, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
  7. Stephen G. Cecchetti & Anil K Kashyap & David W. Wilcox, 1995. "Do Firms Smooth the Seasonal in Production in a Boom? Theory and Evidence," NBER Working Papers 5011, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  8. Darne, Olivier, 2004. "Seasonal cointegration for monthly data," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 82(3), pages 349-356, March.
  9. Miron, Jeffrey A & Beaulieu, J Joseph, 1996. "What Have Macroeconomists Learned about Business Cycles form the Study of Seasonal Cycles?," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 78(1), pages 54-66, February.
  10. Cooper, Russell & Haltiwanger, John, 1993. "The Aggregate Implications of Machine Replacement: Theory and Evidence," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 83(3), pages 360-82, June.
  11. Michael F. Bryan & Stephen G. Cecchetti, 1995. "The seasonality of consumer prices," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, issue Q II, pages 12-23.
  12. Eric Ghysels & Denise R. Osborn & Paulo M. M. Rodrigues, 1999. "Seasonal Nonstationarity and Near-Nonstationarity," CIRANO Working Papers 99s-05, CIRANO.

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