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Measuring Noise in Inventory Models

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Author Info
Steven N. Durlauf
Louis J. Maccini

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Abstract

This paper has two purposes. One is to assess different models of inventory behavior in terms of their ability to well approximate the realized data on inventories. We do this initially for the pure production smoothing model and then for a sequence of generalizations of the model. Our analysis both performs specification tests as well as measures the deviations of the data from each null model, which we refer to as model noise. This involves the introduction of a noise ratio which provides a metric for measuring the magnitude of the noise component of the data. A second purpose is to explore whether observed cost shocks, including in particular carefully measured series on raw materials prices, can be helpful in explaining inventory movements. We find that the basic production level smoothing model of inventories, augmented by buffer stock motives, observed cost shocks, properly measured, and to a lesser extent stockout avoidance motives, appears to well approximate monthly inventory data.

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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 4487.

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Date of creation: Oct 1993
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Publication status: published as Journal of Monetary Economics, Vol. 36, no. 1 (1995): 65-89.
Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:4487

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
E22 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomics: Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Capital; Investment; Capacity

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

  1. Blanchard, Olivier J, 1983. "The Production and Inventory Behavior of the American Automobile Industry," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 91(3), pages 365-400, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  2. Rossana, Robert J, 1990. "Interrelated Demands for Buffer Stocks and Productive Inputs: Estimates for Two-Digit Manufacturing Industries," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 72(1), pages 19-29, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Eichenbaum, Martin, 1983. "A rational expectations equilibrium model of inventories of finished goods and employment," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 12(2), pages 259-277. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Hansen, Lars Peter, 1982. "Large Sample Properties of Generalized Method of Moments Estimators," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(4), pages 1029-54, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Blinder, Alan S & Maccini, Louis J, 1991. " The Resurgence of Inventory Research: What Have We Learned?," Journal of Economic Surveys, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 5(4), pages 291-328.
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  6. Kenneth D. West, 1989. "Order Backlogs and Production Smoothing," NBER Working Papers 2385, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Blinder, Alan S, 1986. "More on the Speed of Adjustment in Inventory Models," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 18(3), pages 355-65, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  8. Ray C. Fair, 1989. "The Production Smoothing Model Is Alive and Well," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 896, Cowles Foundation, Yale University. [Downloadable!]
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  9. Kahn, James A, 1992. "Why Is Production More Volatile Than Sales? Theory and Evidence on the Stockout-Avoidance Motive for Inventory-Holding," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 107(2), pages 481-510, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  10. Kenneth D. West, 1993. "Inventory Models," NBER Technical Working Papers 0143, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  11. West, Kenneth D., 1983. "A note on the econometric use of constant dollar inventory series," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 13(4), pages 337-341. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  12. Maccini, Louis J & Rossana, Robert J, 1984. "Joint Production, Quasi-Fixed Factors of Production, and Investement in Finished Goods Inventories," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 16(2), pages 218-36, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  13. Miron, Jeffrey A & Zeldes, Stephen P, 1988. "Seasonality, Cost Shocks, and the Production Smoothing Models of Inventories," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 56(4), pages 877-908, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  14. Ramey, Valerie A, 1991. "Nonconvex Costs and the Behavior of Inventories," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 99(2), pages 306-34, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  15. Eichenbaum, Martin, 1989. "Some Empirical Evidence on the Production Level and Production Cost Smoothing Models of Inventory Investment," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 79(4), pages 853-64, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  16. West, Kenneth D, 1986. "A Variance Bounds Test of the Linear Quadratic Inventory Model," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 94(2), pages 374-401, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  17. Haltiwanger, John C. & Maccini, Louis J., 1989. "Inventories, orders, temporary and permanent layoffs: An econometric analysis," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 30, pages 301-366. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Marzio Galeotti & Louis J Maccini & Fabio Schiantarelli, 2002. "Inventories Employment and Hours," Economics Working Paper Archive 473, The Johns Hopkins University,Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. David G. Bivin, 2005. "Gauging the performance of the linear-quadratic inventory model," Applied Economics, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 37(11), pages 1215-1231, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Mark Bils & James A. Kahn, 2000. "What Inventory Behavior Tells Us about Business Cycles," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 90(3), pages 458-481, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  4. Adrian Pagan, 1999. "The Getting of Macroeconomic Wisdom," CEPR Discussion Papers 412, Centre for Economic Policy Research, Research School of Social Sciences, Australian National University. [Downloadable!]
  5. Bartholomew Moore & Louis J Maccini & Huntley Schaller, 2002. "The Interest Rate Learning and Inventory Investment," Economics Working Paper Archive 512, The Johns Hopkins University,Department of Economics, revised Apr 2004. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  6. Kenneth D. West, 1993. "Inventory Models," NBER Technical Working Papers 0143, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Andreas Hornstein, 1998. "Inventory investment and the business cycle," Economic Quarterly, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, issue Spr, pages 49-71. [Downloadable!]
  8. Richard D. Farmer, 2006. "Risk-Smoothing Across Time and the Demand for Inventories: A Mean-Variance Approach," Eastern Economic Journal, Eastern Economic Association, vol. 32(4), pages 699-722, Fall. [Downloadable!]
  9. Yungsan Kim & Woon Gyu Choi, 2001. "Has Inventory Investment Been Liquidity-Constrained? Evidence from U.S. Panel Data," IMF Working Papers 01/122, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  10. Brad R. Humphreys & Louis J. Maccini & Scott Schuh, 1997. "Input and output inventories," Working Papers 97-7, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  11. Richard D. Farmer, 2006. "Risk-Smoothing Across Time and the Demand for Inventories: A Mean-Variance Approach," Eastern Economic Journal, Palgrave Macmillan Journals, vol. 32(4), pages 699-722, Fall. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  12. Scott Schuh, 1996. "Evidence on the link between firm-level and aggregate inventory behavior," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 96-46, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
  13. Alastair R. Hall & Atsushi Inoue, 2005. "The Large Sample Behaviour of the Generalized Method of Moments Estimator in Misspecified Models," Econometrics 0505002, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
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