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Markups, Aggregation, and Inventory Adjustment

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Author Info
Daniele Coen-Pirani

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Abstract

In this paper I suggest a unified explanation for two puzzles in the inventory literature: first, estimates of inventory speeds of adjustment in aggregate data are very small relative to the apparent rapid reaction of stocks to unanticipated variations in sales. Second, estimates of inventory speeds of adjustment in firm level data are significantly higher than in aggregate data. The paper develops a multi-sector model where inventories are held to avoid stock-outs, and price markups vary along the business cycle. The omission of countercyclical markup variations from inventory targets introduces a downward bias in estimates of adjustment speeds obtained from partial adjustment models. When the cyclicality of markups differs across sectors, this downward bias is shown to be more severe with aggregate rather than firm-level data. Similar results apply not only to inventories, but also to labor and prices. Monte Carlo simulations of a calibrated version of the model suggest that these biases are quantitatively significant.

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Publisher Info
Article provided by American Economic Association in its journal American Economic Review.

Volume (Year): 94 (2004)
Issue (Month): 5 (December)
Pages: 1328-1353
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Handle: RePEc:aea:aecrev:v:94:y:2004:i:5:p:1328-1353

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Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Bils, Mark, 1987. "The Cyclical Behavior of Marginal Cost and Price," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 77(5), pages 838-55, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Mark Bils & James A. Kahn, 2000. "What Inventory Behavior Tells Us about Business Cycles," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 90(3), pages 458-481, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  3. Martin Feldstein & Alan Auerbach, 1976. "Inventory Behavior in Durable-Goods Manufacturing: The Target-Adjustment Model," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 7(1976-2), pages 351-408. [Downloadable!]
  4. Aubhik Khan & Julie K. Thomas, 2003. "Inventories and the business cycle: an equilibrium analysis of (S,s) policies," Staff Report 329, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis. [Downloadable!]
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  5. Julio J. Rotemberg & Michael Woodford, 1999. "The Cyclical Behavior of Prices and Costs," NBER Working Papers 6909, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  6. Scott Schuh, 1996. "Evidence on the link between firm-level and aggregate inventory behavior," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 96-46, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
  7. Ramey, Valerie A, 1989. "Inventories as Factors of Production and Economic Fluctuations," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 79(3), pages 338-54, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Christiano, Lawrence J, 2002. "Solving Dynamic Equilibrium Models by a Method of Undetermined Coefficients," Computational Economics, Springer, vol. 20(1-2), pages 21-55, October. [Downloadable!]
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  12. Blinder, Alan S, 1986. "More on the Speed of Adjustment in Inventory Models," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 18(3), pages 355-65, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  13. Norrbin, S.C., 1993. "The Relation Between Price and Marginal Cost in U.S. Industry: A Contradiction," Working Papers 1993_05_04, Department of Economics, Florida State University.
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  14. Kahn, James A, 1992. "Why Is Production More Volatile Than Sales? Theory and Evidence on the Stockout-Avoidance Motive for Inventory-Holding," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 107(2), pages 481-510, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  15. Ricardo J. Caballero & Eduardo Engel, 2003. "Adjustment is Much Slower than You Think," NBER Working Papers 9898, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  16. Domowitz, Ian & Hubbard, R Glenn & Petersen, Bruce C, 1987. "Oligopoly Supergames: Some Empirical Evidence on Prices and Margins," Journal of Industrial Economics, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 35(4), pages 379-98, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  17. Robert E. Hall, 1988. "The Relation Between Price and Marginal Cost in U.S. Industry," NBER Working Papers 1785, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  18. Blinder, Alan S & Maccini, Louis J, 1991. "Taking Stock: A Critical Assessment of Recent Research on Inventories," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 5(1), pages 73-96, Winter. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  19. Hall, Robert E, 1988. "The Relation between Price and Marginal Cost in U.S. Industry," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 96(5), pages 921-47, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  20. Miron, Jeffrey A & Zeldes, Stephen P, 1988. "Seasonality, Cost Shocks, and the Production Smoothing Models of Inventories," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 56(4), pages 877-908, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  21. Eichenbaum, Martin S., 1984. "Rational expectations and the smoothing properties of inventories of finished goods," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(1), pages 71-96, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  22. Kahn, James A, 1987. "Inventories and the Volatility of Production," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 77(4), pages 667-79, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  23. Blinder, Alan S, 1986. "Can the Production Smoothing Model of Inventory Behavior Be Saved?," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 101(3), pages 431-53, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  24. Seitz, Helmut, 1993. "Still More on the Speed of Adjustment in Inventory Models: A Lesson in Aggregation," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 18(1), pages 103-27.
  25. Ramey, Valerie A, 1991. "Nonconvex Costs and the Behavior of Inventories," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 99(2), pages 306-34, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  26. Eichenbaum, Martin, 1989. "Some Empirical Evidence on the Production Level and Production Cost Smoothing Models of Inventory Investment," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 79(4), pages 853-64, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  27. West, Kenneth D, 1986. "A Variance Bounds Test of the Linear Quadratic Inventory Model," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 94(2), pages 374-401, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  28. Haltiwanger, John C. & Maccini, Louis J., 1989. "Inventories, orders, temporary and permanent layoffs: An econometric analysis," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 30, pages 301-366. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  1. Matteo Iacoviello & Fabio Schiantarelli & Scott Schuh, 2007. "Input and output inventories in general equilibrium," Working Papers 07-16, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston. [Downloadable!]
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