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Input and output inventory dynamics

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  • Yi Wen
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Abstract

This paper develops an analytically-tractable general-equilibrium model of inventory dynamics based on a precautionary stockout-avoidance motive. The model’s predictions are broadly consistent with the U.S. business cycle and key features of inventory behavior, including (i) a large inventory stock-to-sales ratio and a small inventory investment-to-sales ratio in the long run, (ii) excess volatility of production relative to sales, (iii) procyclical inventory investment but countercyclical stock-to-sales ratio over the business cycle, and (iv) more volatile input inventories than output inventories. It is also shown that technological improvement of inventory management (that eliminates production/ordering lags) can increase, rather than decrease, the volatility of aggregate output. Key to this seemingly counter-intuitive result is that a stockout- avoidance motive leads to procyclical liquidity-value of inventories (hence, procyclical relative prices of output), which acts as an automatic stabilizer that discourages final sales in a boom and encourages final sales during a recession, thereby reducing the variability of GDP.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis in its series Working Papers with number 2008-008.

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Date of creation: 2009
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Handle: RePEc:fip:fedlwp:2008-008

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Keywords: Inventories ; Business cycles;

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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Marcel Förster, 2014. "An Empirical Analysis of Business Cycles in a New Keynesian Model with Inventories," MAGKS Papers on Economics 201413, Philipps-Universität Marburg, Faculty of Business Administration and Economics, Department of Economics (Volkswirtschaftliche Abteilung).
  2. Louis J. Maccini & Bartholomew Moore & Huntley Schaller, 2013. "Inventory Behavior with Permanent Sales Shocks," Fordham Economics Discussion Paper Series dp2013-03, Fordham University, Department of Economics.
  3. James A. Kahn, 2008. "Durable goods inventories and the Great Moderation," Staff Reports 325, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
  4. Hyunseung Oh & Nicolas Crouzet, 2013. "Can news shocks account for the business-cycle dynamics of inventories?," 2013 Meeting Papers 504, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  5. Zhiwei Xu & Yi Wen & pengfei Wang, 2012. "When Do Inventories Destabilize the Economy? ---A Tractable Approach to (S,s) Policies," 2012 Meeting Papers 288, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  6. Lubik, Thomas A. & Sarte, Pierre-Daniel G. & Schwartzman, Felipe, 2014. "What Inventory Behavior Tells Us About How Business Cycles Have Changed," Working Paper 14-6, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond.
  7. Yi Pengfei Wang & Wen & Zhiwei Xu, 2012. "What inventories tell us about aggregate fluctuations -- a tractable approach to (S,s) policies," Working Papers 2012-059, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
  8. Yi Wen, 2011. "Input and output inventory dynamics," Working Papers 2011-008, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
  9. Simona Mateut & Paul Mizen & Ydriss Ziane, . "No Going Back: How the Production Process Affects Access to Short-term Credit," Discussion Papers 12/14, University of Nottingham, Centre for Finance, Credit and Macroeconomics (CFCM).
  10. Jochen Güntner, 2013. "The federal funds market, excess reserves, and unconventional monetary policy," Economics working papers 2013-12, Department of Economics, Johannes Kepler University Linz, Austria.

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