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Seasonality, Cost Shocks, and the Production Smoothing Models of Inventories

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Author Info
Miron, Jeffrey A
Zeldes, Stephen P

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Abstract

This paper examines whether the negative assessment of the production smoothin g model of inventories in the existing literature is due to inadequat e treatment of cost shocks or seasonal fluctuations. The results of t he authors' empirical work provide a strong negative report on the pr oduction smoothing model, even when it includes cost shocks and seaso nal fluctuations. A striking piece of evidence is that in most indust ries the seasonal pattern in production is similar to the seasonal pa ttern in shipments, even after accounting for the seasonal movements in interest rates, input prices, and the weather. Copyright 1988 by The Econometric Society.

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Publisher Info
Article provided by Econometric Society in its journal Econometrica.

Volume (Year): 56 (1988)
Issue (Month): 4 (July)
Pages: 877-908
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Handle: RePEc:ecm:emetrp:v:56:y:1988:i:4:p:877-908

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Edward C. Prescott, 1986. "Theory ahead of business cycle measurement," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, issue Fall, pages 9-22. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. Blanchard, Olivier J, 1983. "The Production and Inventory Behavior of the American Automobile Industry," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 91(3), pages 365-400, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  3. Lawrence J. Christiano & Martin S. Eichenbaum, 1986. "Temporal Aggregation and Structural Inference in Macroeconomics," NBER Technical Working Papers 0060, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  4. Blinder, Alan S, 1986. "More on the Speed of Adjustment in Inventory Models," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 18(3), pages 355-65, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  5. Schutte, David P, 1983. "Inventories and Sticky Prices: Note," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 73(4), pages 815-16, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. West, Kenneth D., 1983. "A note on the econometric use of constant dollar inventory series," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 13(4), pages 337-341. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Maccini, Louis J & Rossana, Robert J, 1984. "Joint Production, Quasi-Fixed Factors of Production, and Investement in Finished Goods Inventories," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 16(2), pages 218-36, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Hansen, Lars Peter & Singleton, Kenneth J, 1983. "Stochastic Consumption, Risk Aversion, and the Temporal Behavior of Asset Returns," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 91(2), pages 249-65, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Irvine, F Owen, Jr, 1981. "Retail Inventory Investment and the Cost of Capital," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 71(4), pages 633-48, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. Stephen Zeldes, . "Consumption and Liquidity Constraints: An Empirical Investigation," Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research Working Papers 24-85, Wharton School Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research.
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  11. Mankiw, N. Gregory, 1981. "The permanent income hypothesis and the real interest rate," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 7(4), pages 307-311. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  12. Kahn, James A, 1987. "Inventories and the Volatility of Production," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 77(4), pages 667-79, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  13. Blinder, Alan S, 1986. "Can the Production Smoothing Model of Inventory Behavior Be Saved?," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 101(3), pages 431-53, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  14. Ghali, Moheb A, 1987. "Seasonality, Aggregation and the Testing of the Production Smoothing Hypothesis," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 77(3), pages 464-69, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  15. Blinder, Alan S. & Fischer, Stanley, 1981. "Inventories, rational expectations, and the business cycle," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 8(3), pages 277-304. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  16. West, Kenneth D, 1986. "A Variance Bounds Test of the Linear Quadratic Inventory Model," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 94(2), pages 374-401, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  17. Sargent, Thomas J, 1978. "Rational Expectations, Econometric Exogeneity, and Consumption," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 86(4), pages 673-700, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Full references

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Donald S. Allen, 1997. "Do inventories moderate fluctuations in output?," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Jul, pages 39-50. [Downloadable!]
  2. Marzio Galeotti & Louis J Maccini & Fabio Schiantarelli, 2002. "Inventories Employment and Hours," Economics Working Paper Archive 473, The Johns Hopkins University,Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  3. Marcel Fafchamps Jan Willem Gunning & Remco Oostendorp, . "Inventories, Liquidity, and Contractual Risk in African Manufacturing," Working Papers 97020, Stanford University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  4. Bartholomew Moore & Louis J Maccini & Huntley Schaller, 2002. "The Interest Rate Learning and Inventory Investment," Economics Working Paper Archive 512, The Johns Hopkins University,Department of Economics, revised Apr 2004. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  5. Kenneth D. West, 1993. "Inventory Models," NBER Technical Working Papers 0143, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Darren Flood & Philip Lowe, 1993. "Inventories and the Business Cycle," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp9306, Reserve Bank of Australia. [Downloadable!]
  7. Pindyck, Robert S., 1990. "Inventories and the short-run dynamics of commodity prices," Working papers 3133-90., Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Sloan School of Management. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  8. Donald S. Allen, 1999. "Seasonal production smoothing," Working Papers 1999-004, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. [Downloadable!]
  9. Daniele Coen-Pirani, 2004. "Markups, Aggregation, and Inventory Adjustment," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 94(5), pages 1328-1353, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. Ray C. Fair, 1990. "The Production Smoothing Model is Alive and Well," NBER Working Papers 2877, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  11. Kenneth D. West, 1989. "Order Backlogs and Production Smoothing," NBER Working Papers 2385, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  12. Svend Hylleberg, 2006. "Seasonal Adjustment," Economics Working Papers 2006-04, School of Economics and Management, University of Aarhus. [Downloadable!]
  13. Scott Schuh, 1996. "Evidence on the link between firm-level and aggregate inventory behavior," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 96-46, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
  14. John Shea, 1996. "Instrument Relevance in Multivariate Linear Models: A Simple Measure," NBER Technical Working Papers 0193, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  15. Steven N. Durlauf & Louis J. Maccini, 1993. "Measuring Noise in Inventory Models," NBER Working Papers 4487, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  16. George J. Hall & John Rust, 1999. "An Empirical Model of Inventory Investment by Durable Commodity Intermediaries," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1228, Cowles Foundation, Yale University. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  17. Antonio Matas-Mir & Denise R. Osborn & Marco Lombardi, 2005. "The Effect of Seasonal Adjustment on the Properties of Business Cycle Regimes," Econometrics Working Papers Archive wp2005_15, Universita' degli Studi di Firenze, Dipartimento di Statistica "G. Parenti". [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
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