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Temporal Aggregation and Structural Inference in Macroeconomics

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  • Lawrence J. Christiano
  • Martin S. Eichenbaum

Abstract

This paper examines the quantitative importance of temporal aggregation bias in distorting parameter estimates and hypothesis tests. Our strategy is to consider two empirical examples in which temporal aggregation bias has the potential to account for results which are widely viewed as being anomalous from the perspective of particular economic models. Our first example investigates the possibility that temporal aggregation bias can lead to spurious Granger causality relationships. The quantitative importance of this possibility is examined in the context of Granger causal relations between the growth rates of money and various measures of aggregate output. Our second example investigates the possibility that temporal aggregation bias can account for the slow speeds of adjustment typically obtained with stock adjustment models. The quantitative importance of this possibility is examined in the context of a particular class of continuous and discrete time equilibriurn models of inventories and sales. The different models are compared on the basis of the behavioral implications of the estimated values of the structural parameters which we obtain and their overall statistical performance. The empirical results from both examples provide support for the view that temporal aggregation bias can be quantitatively important in the sense of Significantly distorting inference.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Technical Working Papers with number 0060.

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Date of creation: Sep 1986
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Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberte:0060

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  1. Maccini, Louis J & Rossana, Robert J, 1984. "Joint Production, Quasi-Fixed Factors of Production, and Investement in Finished Goods Inventories," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 16(2), pages 218-36, May.
  2. Lars Peter Hansen & Thomas J. Sargent, 1979. "Formulating and estimating dynamic linear rational expectations models," Working Papers 127, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
  3. Goodfriend, Marvin, 1985. "Reinterpreting money demand regressions," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 207-241, January.
  4. Alan S. Blinder, 1981. "Inventories and the Structure of Macro Models," NBER Working Papers 0515, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  5. Lucas, Robert E, Jr & Prescott, Edward C, 1971. "Investment Under Uncertainty," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 39(5), pages 659-81, September.
  6. Joseph Altonji, 1984. "Intertemporal Substitution in Labor Supply: Evidence from Micro Data," Working Papers 562, Princeton University, Department of Economics, Industrial Relations Section..
  7. Eichenbaum, Martin S., 1984. "Rational expectations and the smoothing properties of inventories of finished goods," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(1), pages 71-96, July.
  8. Lars Peter Hansen & Thomas J. Sargent, 1980. "Methods for estimating continuous time Rational Expectations models from discrete time data," Staff Report 59, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
  9. Lars Peter Hansen & Thomas J. Sargent, 1982. "Formulating and estimating continuous time rational expectations models," Staff Report 75, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
  10. Sims, Christopher A, 1980. "Macroeconomics and Reality," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(1), pages 1-48, January.
  11. Hansen, Lars Peter & Sargent, Thomas J, 1983. "Aggregation over Time and the Inverse Optimal Predictor Problem for Adaptive Expectations in Conginuous Time," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 24(1), pages 1-20, February.
  12. Zellner, Arnold & Montmarquette, Claude, 1971. "A Study of Some Aspects of Temporal Aggregation Problems in Econometric Analyses," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 53(4), pages 335-42, November.
  13. Rogerson, Richard, 1988. "Indivisible labor, lotteries and equilibrium," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 21(1), pages 3-16, January.
  14. West, Kenneth D, 1986. "A Variance Bounds Test of the Linear Quadratic Inventory Model," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 94(2), pages 374-401, April.
  15. Lawrence J. Christiano., 1985. "A method for estimating the timing interval in a linear econometric model, with an application to Taylor's model of staggered contracts," Staff Report 101, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
  16. Gary Hansen, 2010. "Indivisible Labor and the Business Cycle," Levine's Working Paper Archive 233, David K. Levine.
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