Most analyses of the macroeconomic adjustment required to correct global imbalances ignore net exports of new varieties of goods and services and do not account for firms' net entry in the product market. In this paper we revisit the macroeconomics of trade adjustment in the context of the classic `transfer problem,' using a model where the set of exportables, importables and nontraded goods is endogenous. We show that exchange rate movements associated with adjustment are dramatically lower when the above features are accounted for, relative to traditional macromodels. We also find that, for reasonable parameterizations, consumption and employment (hence welfare) are not highly sensitive to product differentiation, and change little regardless of whether adjustment occurs through movements in relative prices or quantities. This result warns against interpreting the size of real depreciation associated with trade rebalancing as an index of macroeconomic distress.
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Paper provided by C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers in its series CEPR Discussion Papers with number
6660.
Find related papers by JEL classification: F32 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics
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Robert Dekle & Jonathan Eaton & Samuel Kortum, 2007.
"Unbalanced Trade,"
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Other versions:
Robert Dekle & Jonathan Eaton & Samuel Kortum, 2007.
"Unbalanced Trade,"
NBER Working Papers
13035, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
[Downloadable!] (restricted)
James E. Anderson & Eric van Wincoop, 2004.
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NBER Working Papers
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[Downloadable!] (restricted)
Other versions:
James E. Anderson & Eric van Wincoop, 2004.
"Trade Costs,"
Journal of Economic Literature,
American Economic Association, vol. 42(3), pages 691-751, September.
[Downloadable!] (restricted)