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The Sources of Fluctuations in Aggregate Inventories and GNP

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  • Kenneth D. West

Abstract

A simple real linear-quadratic inventory model is used to determine how cost and demand shocks interacted to cause fluctuations in aggregate GNP and inventories in the U.S., 1947-1986. Cost shocks appear to be the predominant source of fluctuations in inventories, and are largely responsible for the well known fact that GNP is more variable than final sales. Cost and demand shocks are of roughly equal importance for GNP. These estimates are, however, imprecise. With a different, but plausible, value for a certain target inventory-sales ratio, cost shocks are less important than demand shocks for GNP fluctuations.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 2992.

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Date of creation: Jun 1989
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Publication status: published as The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Vol. CV, No. 423, pp. 939-971, (November 1990).
Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:2992

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Cited by:
  1. Pedro Albuquerque, 2006. "BAD taxation: Disintermediation and illiquidity in a bank account debits tax model," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer, vol. 13(5), pages 601-624, September.
  2. Sangalli, Ilaria, 2013. "Inventory investment and financial constraints in the Italian manufacturing industry: A panel data GMM approach," Research in Economics, Elsevier, vol. 67(2), pages 157-178.
  3. Louis J. Maccini & Bartholomew Moore & Huntley Schaller, 2013. "Inventory Behavior with Permanent Sales Shocks," Fordham Economics Discussion Paper Series dp2013-03, Fordham University, Department of Economics.
  4. Collard, F., 1994. "Inventories Cycle in an Augmented R.B.C. Model," Papiers d'Economie Mathématique et Applications 94.37, Université Panthéon-Sorbonne (Paris 1).
  5. Holly, Sean & Turner, Paul, 2001. "Inventory investment and asymmetric adjustment: Some evidence for the UK," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 72(3), pages 251-260, August.
  6. Jeffrey Fuhrer & George Moore & Scott Schuh, 1993. "Estimating the linear-quadratic inventory model: maximum likelihood versus generalized method of moments," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 93-11, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  7. Keating, John W., 1996. "Structural information in recursive VAR orderings," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 20(9-10), pages 1557-1580.
  8. Keating, John W., 2000. "Macroeconomic Modeling with Asymmetric Vector Autoregressions," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 1-28, January.
  9. Yungsan Kim & Woon Gyu Choi, 2001. "Has Inventory Investment Been Liquidity-Constrained? Evidence From U.S. Panel Data," IMF Working Papers 01/122, International Monetary Fund.
  10. Kollintzas, Tryphon, 1995. "A generalized variance bounds test with an application to the Holt et al. inventory model," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 19(1-2), pages 59-89.
  11. Barrera, Carlos R., 2011. "Impacto amplificador del ajuste de inventarios ante choques de demanda según especificaciones flexibles," Working Papers 2011-009, Banco Central de Reserva del Perú.
  12. Laffargue, Jean-Pierre & Malgrange, Pierre & Pujol, Thierry, 1992. "Une maquette trimestrielle de l’économie française avec anticipations rationnelles et concurrence monopolistique," L'Actualité Economique, Société Canadienne de Science Economique, vol. 68(1), pages 225-261, mars et j.
  13. Kenneth D. West, 1993. "Inventory Models," NBER Technical Working Papers 0143, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  14. Dimelis, Sophia P., 2001. "Inventory investment over the business cycle in the EU and the US," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 71(1-3), pages 1-8, May.
  15. Ronayne, David, 2011. "Which Impulse Response Function?," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) 971, University of Warwick, Department of Economics.

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