Advanced Search
MyIDEAS: Login to save this paper or follow this series

Formulating and estimating continuous time rational expectations models

Contents:

Author Info

  • Lars Peter Hansen
  • Thomas J. Sargent

Abstract

This paper proposes a method for estimating the parameters of continuous time, stochastic rational expectations models from discrete time observations. The method is important since various heuristic procedures for deducing the implications for discrete time data of continuous time models, such as replacing derivatives with first differences, can sometimes give rise to very misleading conclusions about parameters. Our proposal is to express the restrictions imposed by the rational expectations model on the continuous time process generating the observable variables. Then the likelihood function of a discrete time sample of observations from this process is obtained. Parameter estimates are computed by maximizing the likelihood function with respect to the free parameters of the continuous time model.

Download Info

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
File URL: http://www.minneapolisfed.org/research/common/pub_detail.cfm?pb_autonum_id=356
Download Restriction: no

File URL: http://minneapolisfed.org/research/sr/sr75.pdf
Download Restriction: no

Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis in its series Staff Report with number 75.

as in new window
Length:
Date of creation: 1982
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:fip:fedmsr:75

Contact details of provider:
Postal: 90 Hennepin Avenue, P.O. Box 291, Minneapolis, MN 55480-0291
Phone: (612) 204-5000
Web page: http://minneapolisfed.org/
More information through EDIRC

Order Information:
Email:
Web: http://www.minneapolisfed.org/pubs/

Related research

Keywords:

This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

References

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
as in new window
  1. Lars Peter Hansen & Thomas J. Sargent, 1980. "Methods for estimating continuous time Rational Expectations models from discrete time data," Staff Report 59, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
  2. Phillips, P C B, 1974. "The Estimation of Some Continuous Time Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 42(5), pages 803-23, September.
  3. Granger, C W J, 1969. "Investigating Causal Relations by Econometric Models and Cross-Spectral Methods," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 37(3), pages 424-38, July.
  4. Wilson, Charles A, 1979. "Anticipated Shocks and Exchange Rate Dynamics," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 87(3), pages 639-47, June.
  5. Lars Peter Hansen & Thomas J. Sargent, 1981. "The dimensionality of the aliasing problem in models with rational spectral densities," Staff Report 72, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
  6. Taylor, John B., 1980. "Output and price stability: An international comparison," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 2(1), pages 109-132, May.
  7. Sargent, Thomas J, 1981. "Interpreting Economic Time Series," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 89(2), pages 213-48, April.
  8. Treadway, Arthur B., 1970. "Adjustment costs and variable inputs in the theory of the competitive firm," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 2(4), pages 329-347, December.
  9. Hansen, Lars Peter & Sargent, Thomas J, 1983. "Aggregation over Time and the Inverse Optimal Predictor Problem for Adaptive Expectations in Conginuous Time," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 24(1), pages 1-20, February.
  10. Lars Peter Hansen & Thomas J. Sargent, 1981. "A note on Wiener-Kolmogorov prediction formulas for rational expectations models," Staff Report 69, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
  11. Hansen, Lars Peter & Sargent, Thomas J., 1980. "Formulating and estimating dynamic linear rational expectations models," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 2(1), pages 7-46, May.
  12. Lars Peter Hansen & Thomas J. Sargent, 1983. "Identification of continuous time rational expectations models from discrete time data," Staff Report 73, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
  13. Lars Peter Hansen & Thomas J. Sargent, 1980. "Linear rational expectations models for dynamically interrelated variables," Working Papers 135, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
  14. Mortensen, Dale T, 1973. "Generalized Costs of Adjustment and Dynamic Factor Demand Theory," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 41(4), pages 657-65, July.
  15. Taylor, John B, 1979. "Staggered Wage Setting in a Macro Model," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 69(2), pages 108-13, May.
  16. Lucas, Robert E, Jr & Prescott, Edward C, 1971. "Investment Under Uncertainty," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 39(5), pages 659-81, September.
  17. Rusdu Saracoglu & Thomas J. Sargent, 1976. "Seasonality and portfolio balance under rational expectations," Working Papers 58, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
  18. Phillips, P. C. B., 1973. "The problem of identification in finite parameter continuous time models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 1(4), pages 351-362, December.
  19. R. Dornbusch, 1975. "Exchange Rate Dynamics," Working papers 167, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Department of Economics.
  20. Sims, Christopher A, 1971. "Discrete Approximations to Continuous Time Distributed Lags in Econometrics," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 39(3), pages 545-63, May.
  21. Chow, Gregory C & Lin, An-loh, 1971. "Best Linear Unbiased Interpolation, Distribution, and Extrapolation of Time Series by Related Series," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 53(4), pages 372-75, November.
  22. Wymer, C R, 1972. "Econometric Estimation of Stochastic Differential Equation Systems," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 40(3), pages 565-77, May.
  23. Lars Peter Hansen & Thomas J. Sargent, 1981. "Exact linear rational expectations models: specification and estimation," Staff Report 71, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
  24. Phillips, P C B, 1972. "The Structural Estimation of a Stochastic Differential Equation System," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 40(6), pages 1021-41, November.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

Citations

Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
as in new window

Cited by:
  1. Andrew W. Lo, . "Maximum Likelihood Estimation of Generalized Ito Processes with Discretely Sampled Data," Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research Working Papers 15-86, Wharton School Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research.
  2. Christiano, Lawrence J. & Eichenbaum, Martin, 1987. "Temporal aggregation and structural inference in macroeconomics," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 26(1), pages 63-130, January.
  3. Lawrence J. Christiano & Martin Eichenbaum & David Marshall, 1987. "The Permanent Income Hypothesis Revisited," NBER Working Papers 2209, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

Lists

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

Statistics

Access and download statistics

Corrections

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:fip:fedmsr:75. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Janelle Ruswick).

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.