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Macroeconometric Modelling for Policy Evaluation and Design

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  • Willem H. Buiter

Abstract

The paper reviews recent developments in macroeconomic theory and their implications for econometric modelling and for policy design. The following issues are addressed. 1) The theoretical and practical problems of modelling sequence economies. 2) Problems of evaluating the role of money given the absence of reasonable microfoundations for monetary theory. 3) The implications of the view that macroeconomic models should be viewed as non-cooperative differential games. 4) Identification and estimation of the policy-invariant structure of rational expectations models. 5) Time inconsistency of optimal plans and 6) The welfare economics of stabilization policy and the need to pay much greater attention to market structure if a market failure-based justification for stabilization policy is to be developed.

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File URL: http://www.nber.org/papers/t0013.pdf
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Technical Working Papers with number 0013.

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Date of creation: Jun 1981
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Publication status: published as Buiter, Willem H. "Macroeconometric Modelling for Policy Evaluation and Design." The Usefulness of Macroeconomic Models, Bank of England, (March 1981) , pp. 15-38.
Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberte:0013

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References

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  1. Thomas J. Sargent, 1980. "Interpreting economic time series," Staff Report 58, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
  2. Altonji, Joseph & Ashenfelter, Orley, 1980. "Wage Movements and the Labour Market Equilibrium Hypothesis," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 47(187), pages 217-45, August.
  3. Willem H. Buiter & James Tobin, 1978. "Debt Neutrality: A Brief Review of Doctrine and Evidence," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 497, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
  4. Hall, Robert E., 1980. "Labor supply and aggregate fluctuations," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 12(1), pages 7-33, January.
  5. Chow, Gregory C., 1980. "Econometric policy evaluation and optimization under rational expectations," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 2(1), pages 47-59, May.
  6. Weiss, Andrew W, 1980. "Job Queues and Layoffs in Labor Markets with Flexible Wages," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 88(3), pages 526-38, June.
  7. Barro, Robert J., 1974. "Are Government Bonds Net Wealth?," Scholarly Articles 3451399, Harvard University Department of Economics.
  8. Phelps, Edmund S & Taylor, John B, 1977. "Stabilizing Powers of Monetary Policy under Rational Expectations," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 85(1), pages 163-90, February.
  9. Willem H. Buiter & James Tobin, 1978. "Fiscal and Monetary Policies, Capital Formation, and Economic Activity," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 512, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
  10. Cuddington, John T, 1980. "Simultaneous-Equations Tests of the Natural Rate and Other Classical Hypotheses," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 88(3), pages 539-49, June.
  11. Willem H. Buiter & Marcus H. Miller, 1980. "Monetary Policy and International Competitiveness," NBER Working Papers 0591, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  12. Wallis, Kenneth F, 1980. "Econometric Implications of the Rational Expectations Hypothesis," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(1), pages 49-73, January.
  13. Hansen, Lars Peter & Sargent, Thomas J., 1980. "Formulating and estimating dynamic linear rational expectations models," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 2(1), pages 7-46, May.
  14. Lee A. Lillard & Robert J. Willis, 1976. "Dynamic Aspects of Earnings Mobility," NBER Working Papers 0150, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  15. Dolde, Walter, 1976. "Forecasting the Consumption Effects of Stabilization Policies," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 17(2), pages 431-46, June.
  16. Buiter, Willem H, 1980. "The Macroeconomics of Dr. Pangloss: A Critical Survey of the New Classical Macroeconomics," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 90(357), pages 34-50, March.
  17. Lucas, Robert Jr., 1972. "Expectations and the neutrality of money," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 4(2), pages 103-124, April.
  18. Kydland, Finn E & Prescott, Edward C, 1977. "Rules Rather Than Discretion: The Inconsistency of Optimal Plans," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 85(3), pages 473-91, June.
  19. Sims, Christopher A, 1972. "Money, Income, and Causality," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 62(4), pages 540-52, September.
  20. Deaton, Angus S & Muellbauer, John, 1980. "An Almost Ideal Demand System," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 70(3), pages 312-26, June.
  21. Barro, Robert J., 1977. "Long-term contracting, sticky prices, and monetary policy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 3(3), pages 305-316, July.
  22. Granger, C W J, 1969. "Investigating Causal Relations by Econometric Models and Cross-Spectral Methods," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 37(3), pages 424-38, July.
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Cited by:
  1. Willem H. Buiter, 1982. "Comment on T. J. Sargent and N. Wallace: "Some Unpleasant Monetarist Arithmetic"," NBER Working Papers 0867, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

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