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Measuring Systematic Monetary Policy

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  • Kevin D. Hoover
  • Oscar Jorda

Abstract

The 1970s and early 1980s witnessed two main approaches to the analysis of monetary policy. The first is the early new classical approach of Lucas, based on the assumptions of rational expectations and market clearing. The second is the a theoretical econometrics of Sims’s VAR program. Both have developed: the new classical approach has been enriched through various accounts of price stickiness, cost of adjustment or alternative expectational schemes; the original VAR program has developed into the structural VAR program. This paper clarifies the relationship between these two programs. Based on work of Cochrane (1998), it shows that the typical method of evaluating unanticipated, unsystematic monetary policy is correct only if the conditions necessary for Lucas’s policy-ineffectiveness proposition hold, while recent methods for evaluating systematic monetary policy violate Lucas’s policy-noninvariance proposition (“the Lucas critique”). The paper shows how to construct and estimate (using regime changes) a model in which some agents form rational-expectations and others follow rules of thumb. In such a model, monetary policy actions can be validly decomposed into systematic and unsystematic components and valid counterfactual experiments on alternative systematic monetary-policy rules can be evaluated.

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Paper provided by California Davis - Department of Economics in its series Department of Economics with number 00-05.

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Handle: RePEc:fth:caldec:00-05

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Cited by:
  1. Fabio Milani & John Treadwell, 2011. "The Effects of Monetary Policy "News" and "Surprises"," Working Papers 101109, University of California-Irvine, Department of Economics.
  2. Hanson, Michael S., 2006. "Varying monetary policy regimes: A vector autoregressive investigation," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 58(5-6), pages 407-427.
  3. Oscar Jorda & Kevin Salyer, . "The Response of Term Rates to Monetary Policy Uncertainty," Department of Economics 01-06, California Davis - Department of Economics.
  4. Kenneth N. Kuttner & Patricia C. Mosser, 2002. "The monetary transmission mechanism: some answers and further questions," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, issue May, pages 15-26.
  5. Eduard Hochreiter & Anton Korinek & Pierre L. Siklos, 2002. "The Potential Consequences of Alternative Exchange Rate Regimes: A Study of Three Candidate Regions," Working Papers 76, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank).
  6. Rautureau, Nicolas, 2004. "Measuring the long-term perception of monetary policy and the term structure," Research Discussion Papers 12/2004, Bank of Finland.
  7. Sydney Ludvigson & Charles Steindel & Martin Lettau, 2002. "Monetary policy transmission through the consumption-wealth channel," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, issue May, pages 117-133.
  8. Bachmeier, Lance, 2008. "Monetary policy and the transmission of oil shocks," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 30(4), pages 1738-1755, December.

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