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Exact linear rational expectations models: specification and estimation

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Author Info
Lars Peter Hansen
Thomas J. Sargent

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Abstract

This paper describes how to specify and estimate rational expectations models in which there are exact linear relationships among variables and expectations of variables that the econometrician observes.

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Paper provided by Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis in its series Staff Report with number 71.

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Date of creation: 1981
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Handle: RePEc:fip:fedmsr:71

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This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports: References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Hall, Robert E, 1978. "Stochastic Implications of the Life Cycle-Permanent Income Hypothesis: Theory and Evidence," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 86(6), pages 971-87, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Sims, Christopher A, 1980. "Macroeconomics and Reality," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(1), pages 1-48, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Robinson, Peter M., 1977. "The construction and estimation of continuous time models and discrete approximations in econometrics," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 6(2), pages 173-197, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Hansen, Lars Peter, 1982. "Large Sample Properties of Generalized Method of Moments Estimators," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(4), pages 1029-54, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Sargent, Thomas J, 1976. "A Classical Macroeconometric Model for the United States," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 84(2), pages 207-37, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Lars Peter Hansen & Thomas J. Sargent, 1980. "Linear rational expectations models for dynamically interrelated variables," Working Papers 135, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis. [Downloadable!]
  7. Sargent, Thomas J, 1972. "Rational Expectations and the Term Structure of Interest Rates," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 4(1), pages 74-97, Part I Fe. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Granger, C W J, 1969. "Investigating Causal Relations by Econometric Models and Cross-Spectral Methods," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 37(3), pages 424-38, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Hansen, Lars Peter & Hodrick, Robert J, 1980. "Forward Exchange Rates as Optimal Predictors of Future Spot Rates: An Econometric Analysis," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 88(5), pages 829-53, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. Robert J. Shiller, 1980. "Alternative Tests of Rational Expectations Models: The Case of the Term Structure," NBER Working Papers 0563, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  11. Shiller, Robert J, 1979. "The Volatility of Long-Term Interest Rates and Expectations Models of the Term Structure," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 87(6), pages 1190-1219, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  12. Hansen, Lars Peter & Singleton, Kenneth J, 1983. "Stochastic Consumption, Risk Aversion, and the Temporal Behavior of Asset Returns," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 91(2), pages 249-65, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  13. Singleton, Kenneth J, 1980. "Expectations Models of the Term Structure and Implied Variance Bounds," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 88(6), pages 1159-76, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  14. Thomas J. Sargent, 1978. "A note on maximum likelihood estimation of the rational expectations model of the term structure," Staff Report 26, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis. [Downloadable!]
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  15. Kohn, R, 1979. "Asymptotic Estimation and Hypothesis Testing Results for Vector Linear Time Series Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 47(4), pages 1005-30, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  16. Sargent, Thomas J, 1978. "Rational Expectations, Econometric Exogeneity, and Consumption," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 86(4), pages 673-700, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  17. Robert J. Shiller, 1981. "Do Stock Prices Move Too Much to be Justified by Subsequent Changes in Dividends?," NBER Working Papers 0456, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  18. Sims, Christopher A, 1972. "Money, Income, and Causality," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 62(4), pages 540-52, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  19. Robert J. Hodrick & Edward Prescott, 1981. "Post-War U.S. Business Cycles: An Empirical Investigation," Discussion Papers 451, Northwestern University, Center for Mathematical Studies in Economics and Management Science. [Downloadable!]
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  20. Hansen, Lars Peter & Sargent, Thomas J., 1980. "Formulating and estimating dynamic linear rational expectations models," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 2(1), pages 7-46, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  21. Robert B. Litterman, 1979. "Techniques of forecasting using vector autoregressions," Working Papers 115, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis. [Downloadable!]
  22. Kennan, John, 1979. "The Estimation of Partial Adjustment Models with Rational Expectations," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 47(6), pages 1441-55, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Full references

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Soren Johansen & Anders Rygh Swensen, 2007. "Exact Rational Expectations, Cointegration, and Reduced Rank Regression," Discussion Papers 07-29, University of Copenhagen. Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. Kenneth B. Dunn & Kenneth J. Singleton, 1984. "Modeling the Term Structure of Interest Rates Under Nonseparable Utilityand Duriability of Goods," NBER Working Papers 1415, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Marjorie A. Flavin, 1988. "The Excess Smoothness of Consumption: Identification and Interpretation," NBER Working Papers 2807, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Lawrence J. Christiano & Martin Eichenbaum & David Marshall, 1987. "The Permanent Income Hypothesis Revisited," NBER Working Papers 2209, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  5. Juselius, Mikael, 2008. "Cointegration implications of linear rational expectation models," Research Discussion Papers 6/2008, Bank of Finland. [Downloadable!]
  6. Jennifer E. Roush, 2001. "Evidence uncovered: long-term interest rates, monetary policy, and the expectations theory," International Finance Discussion Papers 712, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
  7. Takatoshi Ito, 1989. "Use of (Time-Domain) Vector Autoregressions to Test Uncovered Interest Parity," NBER Working Papers 1493, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  8. Robert J. Shiller & J. Huston McCulloch, 1987. "The Term Structure of Interest Rates," NBER Working Papers 2341, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. John Y. Campbell & Robert J. Shiller, 1983. "A Simple Account of the Behavior of Long-Term Interest Rates," NBER Working Papers 1203, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  10. Lawrence J. Christiano & Robert J. Vigfusson, 2001. "Maximum likelihood in the frequency domain: the importance of time-to-plan," Working Paper 0106, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  11. Lars Peter Hansen & Thomas J. Sargent, 1982. "Formulating and estimating continuous time rational expectations models," Staff Report 75, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis. [Downloadable!]
  12. Kenneth D. West, 1988. "The Insensitivity of Consumption to News About Income," NBER Working Papers 2252, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  13. John Y. Campbell & Robert J. Shiller, 1988. "Cointegration and Tests of Present Value Models," NBER Working Papers 1885, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  14. Matt Klaeffing, 2003. "Monetary policy shocks - a nonfundamental look at the data," Working Paper Series 228, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
  15. Søren Johansen and Anders Rygh Swensen, 2003. "More on Testing Exact Rational Expectations in Cointegrated Vector Autoregressive Models: Restricted Drift Terms," Discussion Papers 348, Research Department of Statistics Norway. [Downloadable!]
  16. Robert J. Shiller, 1985. "Conventional Valuation and the Term Structure of Interest Rates," NBER Working Papers 1610, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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