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Solution and Maximum Likelihood Estimation of Dynamic Nonlinear Rational Expectations Models

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  • Fair, Ray C
  • Taylor, John B

Abstract

A solution method and an estimation method for nonlinear rational expectations models are presented in this paper. The solution method can be used in forecasting and policy applications and can handle models with serial correlation and multiple viewpoint dates. When applied to linear models, the solution method yields the same results as those obtained from currently available methods that are designed specifically for linear models. It is, however, more flexible and general than these methods. For large nonlinear models the results in this paper indicate that the method works quite well. The estimation method is based on the maximum likelihood principal. It is, as far as we know, the only method available for obtaining maximum likelihood estimates for nonlinear rational expectations models. The method has the advantage of being applicable to a wide range of models, including, as a special case, linear ,models. The method can also handle different assumptions about the expectations of the exogenous variables, something which is not true of currently available approaches to linear models.

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Article provided by Econometric Society in its journal Econometrica.

Volume (Year): 51 (1983)
Issue (Month): 4 (July)
Pages: 1169-85

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Handle: RePEc:ecm:emetrp:v:51:y:1983:i:4:p:1169-85

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  1. Taylor, John B, 1977. "Conditions for Unique Solutions in Stochastic Macroeconomic Models with Rational Expectations," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 45(6), pages 1377-85, September.
  2. Lars Peter Hansen & Thomas J. Sargent, 1979. "Formulating and estimating dynamic linear rational expectations models," Working Papers 127, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
  3. Chow, Gregory C., 1980. "Estimation of rational expectations models," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 2(1), pages 241-255, May.
  4. Sargent, Thomas J, 1981. "Interpreting Economic Time Series," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 89(2), pages 213-48, April.
  5. Wallis, Kenneth F, 1980. "Econometric Implications of the Rational Expectations Hypothesis," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(1), pages 49-73, January.
  6. Lucas, Robert E, Jr & Prescott, Edward C, 1971. "Investment Under Uncertainty," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 39(5), pages 659-81, September.
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