IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/bdi/wptemi/td_354_99.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

How deep are the deep parameters?

Author

Listed:
  • Filippo Altissimo

    (Bank of Italy, Economic Research Department)

  • Stefano Siviero

    (Bank of Italy, Economic Research Department)

  • Daniele Terlizzese

    (Bank of Italy, Economic Research Department)

Abstract

Policy evaluation based on the estimation of dynamic stochastic general equilibrium models with aggregate macroeconomic time series rests on the assumption that a representative agent can be identified, whose behavioural parameters are independent of the policy rules. Building on earlier work by Geweke, the main goal of this paper is to show that the representative agent is in general not structural, in the sense that its estimated behavioural parameters are not policyindependent. The paper identifies two different sources of nonstructurality. The latter is shown to be a fairly general feature of optimizing representative agent rational expectations models estimated on macroeconomic data.

Suggested Citation

  • Filippo Altissimo & Stefano Siviero & Daniele Terlizzese, 1999. "How deep are the deep parameters?," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 354, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    • Handle: RePEc:bdi:wptemi:td_354_99
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.bancaditalia.it/pubblicazioni/temi-discussione/1999/1999-0354/tema_354_99.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Sargent, Thomas J, 1981. "Interpreting Economic Time Series," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 89(2), pages 213-248, April.
    2. Alan P. Kirman, 1992. "Whom or What Does the Representative Individual Represent?," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 6(2), pages 117-136, Spring.
    3. Hansen, Lars Peter & Sargent, Thomas J., 1980. "Formulating and estimating dynamic linear rational expectations models," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 2(1), pages 7-46, May.
    4. Lucas, Robert Jr, 1976. "Econometric policy evaluation: A critique," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 1(1), pages 19-46, January.
    5. Frank Hahn & Robert Solow, 1997. "A Critical Essay on Modern Macroeconomic Theory," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 026258154x, December.
    6. Christopher A. Sims, 1982. "Policy Analysis with Econometric Models," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 13(1), pages 107-164.
    7. Malinvaud, Edmond, 1981. "Econometrics Faced with the Needs of Macroeconomic Policy," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 49(6), pages 1363-1375, November.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Jesper Linde, 2002. "Monetary Policy Analysis in Backward-Looking Models," Annals of Economics and Statistics, GENES, issue 67-68, pages 155-182.
    2. Alexis Penot & Grégory Levieuge, 2009. "The Fed and the ECB: why such an apparent difference in reactivity?," Journal of Financial Economic Policy, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 1(4), pages 319-337, November.
    3. Salvador Barrios & Mathias Dolls & Anamaria Maftei & Andreas Peichl & Sara Riscado & Janos Varga & Christian Wittneben, 2019. "Dynamic Scoring Of Tax Reforms In The European Union," Journal of Policy Analysis and Management, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 38(1), pages 239-262, January.
    4. Hosoya, Kei, 2019. "Importance of a victim-oriented recovery policy after major disasters," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 1-10.
    5. Stefano Siviero & Daniele Terlizzese & Ignazio Visco, 1999. "Are model-based inflation forecasts used in monetary policymaking? A case study," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 357, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    6. Libero Monteforte & Stefano Siviero, 2010. "The economic consequences of euro-area macro-modelling shortcuts," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 42(19), pages 2399-2415.
    7. Ignazio Angeloni & Anil K. Kashyap & Benoit Mojon & Daniele Terlizzese, 2003. "The Output Composition Puzzle: A Difference in the Monetary Transmission Mechanism in the Euro Area and U.S," NBER Working Papers 9985, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. Fornari, F. & Pericoli, M., 2000. "Stock Values and Fundamentals: Link or Irrationality?," Papers 378, Banca Italia - Servizio di Studi.
    9. Dolls, Mathias & Wittneben, Christian, 2017. "Dynamic Scoring of Tax Reforms in the EU," VfS Annual Conference 2017 (Vienna): Alternative Structures for Money and Banking 168261, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    10. Libero Monteforte & Stefano Siviero, 2002. "The economic consequences of euro area modelling shortcuts," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 458, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Alessio Moneta, 2005. "Causality in macroeconometrics: some considerations about reductionism and realism," Journal of Economic Methodology, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 12(3), pages 433-453.
    2. Kevin D. Hoover & Òscar Jordà, 2001. "Measuring systematic monetary policy," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 83(Jul), pages 113-144.
    3. Giorgio Fagiolo & Paul Windrum & Alessio Moneta, 2006. "Empirical Validation of Agent Based Models: A Critical Survey," LEM Papers Series 2006/14, Laboratory of Economics and Management (LEM), Sant'Anna School of Advanced Studies, Pisa, Italy.
    4. Tsai, Grace Yueh-Hsiang, 1989. "A dynamic model of the U.S. cotton market with rational expectations," ISU General Staff Papers 1989010108000012168, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
    5. Geweke, J. & Joel Horowitz & Pesaran, M.H., 2006. "Econometrics: A Bird’s Eye View," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 0655, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    6. Langley, Suchada Vichitakul, 1982. "The formation of price expectations: a case study of the soybean market," ISU General Staff Papers 198201010800009358, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
    7. Gebhard Kirchgässner, 2009. "Die Krise der Wirtschaft: Auch eine Krise der Wirtschaftswissenschaften?," Perspektiven der Wirtschaftspolitik, Verein für Socialpolitik, vol. 10(4), pages 436-468, November.
    8. Eric M. Leeper & Todd B. Walker & Shu-Chun Susan Yang, 2008. "Fiscal Foresight: Analytics and Econometrics," CAEPR Working Papers 2008-013, Center for Applied Economics and Policy Research, Department of Economics, Indiana University Bloomington.
    9. Tinsley, P A, 2002. "Rational Error Correction," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 19(2), pages 197-225, April.
    10. Duo Qin, 2006. "VAR Modelling Approach and Cowles Commission Heritage," Working Papers 557, Queen Mary University of London, School of Economics and Finance.
    11. Kevin D. Hoover & Òscar Jordà, 2001. "Measuring systematic monetary policy," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Jul, pages 113-144.
    12. Alan S. Blinder, 1983. "A Skeptical Note on the New Econometrics," NBER Working Papers 1092, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    13. Mauricio Sánchez Puerta & Marta Milena Ochoa Galeano, 2005. "Reflexiones sobre la importancia de la Crítica de Lucas," Revista Ecos de Economía, Universidad EAFIT, April.
    14. James J. Heckman, 2005. "Micro Data, Heterogeneity and the Evaluation of Public Policy Part 2," The American Economist, Sage Publications, vol. 49(1), pages 16-44, March.
    15. John S.L. McCombie & Ioana Negru, 2014. "On economic paradigms, rhetoric and the micro-foundations of macroeconomics," European Journal of Economics and Economic Policies: Intervention, Edward Elgar Publishing, vol. 11(1), pages 53-66, April.
    16. Pedro Garcia Duarte & Kevin D. Hoover, 2012. "Observing Shocks," History of Political Economy, Duke University Press, vol. 44(5), pages 226-249, Supplemen.
    17. Quah, Danny, 1994. "One business cycle and one trend from (many,) many disaggregates," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 38(3-4), pages 605-614, April.
    18. Victor Zarnowitz, 1997. "Business Cycles Observed and Assessed: Why and How They Matter," NBER Working Papers 6230, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    19. Tryphon Kollintzas, 1986. "Tax Policy under Nongeometric Physical Depreciation," Public Finance Review, , vol. 14(3), pages 263-288, July.
    20. Da Silva, Sergio, 2009. "Does Macroeconomics Need Microeconomic Foundations?," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal (2007-2020), Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel), vol. 3, pages 1-11.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Structural models; Lucas Critique;

    JEL classification:

    • C20 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - General
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • C13 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Estimation: General

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bdi:wptemi:td_354_99. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: the person in charge (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/bdigvit.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.