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The expectation hypothesis of the term structure of very short-term rates: statistical tests and economic value

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  • Pasquale Della Corte
  • Lucio Sarno
  • Daniel L. Thornton

Abstract

This paper re-examines the validity of the Expectation Hypothesis (EH) of the term structure of US repo rates ranging in maturity from overnight to three months. We extend the work of Longstaff (2000a) in two directions: (i) we implement statistical tests designed to increase test power in this context; (ii) more importantly, we assess the economic value of departures from the EH based on criteria of profitability and economic significance in the context of a simple trading strategy. The EH is rejected throughout the term structure examined on the basis of the statistical tests. However, the results of our economic analysis are favorable to the EH, suggesting that the statistical rejections of the EH in the repo market are economically insignificant.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis in its series Working Papers with number 2006-061.

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Date of creation: 2007
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Publication status: Published in Journal of Financial Economics, July 2008, 89(1), pp. 158-74
Handle: RePEc:fip:fedlwp:2006-061

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Keywords: Interest rates;

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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Della Corte, Pasquale & Sarno, Lucio & Tsiakas, Ilias, 2010. "Spot and Forward Volatility in Foreign Exchange," CEPR Discussion Papers 7893, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  2. Stephen Hall & Kavita Sirichand, 2010. "Economic Value of Stock and Interest Rate Predictability in the UK," Discussion Papers in Economics 10/13, Department of Economics, University of Leicester.
  3. Eichengreen, Barry & Mody, Ashoka & Nedeljkovic, Milan & Sarno, Lucio, 2012. "How the Subprime Crisis went global: Evidence from bank credit default swap spreads," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(5), pages 1299-1318.
  4. Daniel L. Thornton, 2009. "How did we get to inflation targeting and where do we go now? a perspective from the U.S. experience," Working Papers 2009-038, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
  5. Della Corte, Pasquale & Sarno, Lucio & Sestieri, Giulia, 2010. "The Predictive Information Content of External Imbalances for Exchange Rate Returns: How Much Is It Worth?," CEPR Discussion Papers 8045, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  6. Hernandis, Lucía & Torró, Hipòlit, 2013. "The information content of Eonia swap rates before and during the financial crisis," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(12), pages 5316-5328.
  7. Daniel L. Thornton, 2012. "Monetary policy: why money matters, and interest rates don’t," Working Papers 2012-020, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
  8. Rime, Dagfinn & Sarno, Lucio & Sojli, Elvira, 2010. "Exchange rate forecasting, order flow and macroeconomic information," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 80(1), pages 72-88, January.
  9. Kotomin, Vladimir, 2011. "A test of the expectations hypothesis in very short-term international rates in the presence of preferred habitat for liquidity," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 51(1), pages 49-55, February.
  10. Stephen Hall & Kavita Sirichand, 2010. "Decision-Based Forecast Evaluation of UK Interest Rate Predictability," Discussion Papers in Economics 10/09, Department of Economics, University of Leicester.
  11. Karstanje, Dennis & Sojli, Elvira & Tham, Wing Wah & van der Wel, Michel, 2013. "Economic valuation of liquidity timing," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(12), pages 5073-5087.
  12. Carlo Altavilla & Raffaella Giacomini & Riccardo Costantini, 2013. "Bond returns and market expectations," CeMMAP working papers CWP20/13, Centre for Microdata Methods and Practice, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
  13. Buraschi Andrea & Carnelli Andrea, 2013. "The economic value of predictability in portfolio management," Journal of Financial Management, Markets and Institutions, Società editrice il Mulino, issue 1, pages 11-25, January.
  14. Massimo Guidolin & Daniel L. Thornton, 2010. "Predictions of short-term rates and the expectations hypothesis," Working Papers 2010-013, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.

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