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Seasonal Fluctuations and the Life Cycle-Permanent Income Model of Consumption

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  • Jeffrey A. Miron

Abstract

Recent empirical work has found that both aggregate and micro data reject the rational expectations version of the Life Cycle-Permanent Income model of consumption. This paper examines a new possible explanation for the rejections: the treatment of seasonal fluctuations. There are substantial seasonal fluctuations in consumption purchases, but no previous paper has determined whether these fluctuations are consistent with the Life Cycle-Permanent Income model. The results in this paper show that when the seasonal fluctuations in consumption purchases are included in an analysis of the Life Cycle-Permanent Income model there is no evidence in the aggregate data against the model. The estimates of the parameters of agents' utility functions obtained here are plausible, and the data do not reject the overidentifying restrictions on the model.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 1845.

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Date of creation: Feb 1986
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Publication status: published as Miron, Jeffrey A. "Seasonal Fluctuations and the Life Cycle-Permanent Income Model of Consumption," Journal of Political Economy, Vol. 94, No. 6, (1986), pp. 1258-1279.
Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:1845

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  1. Hall, Robert E & Mishkin, Frederic S, 1982. "The Sensitivity of Consumption to Transitory Income: Estimates from Panel Data on Households," Econometrica, Econometric Society, Econometric Society, vol. 50(2), pages 461-81, March.
  2. Roll, Richard, 1984. "Orange Juice and Weather," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 74(5), pages 861-80, December.
  3. Ben S. Bernanke, 1982. "Adjustment Costs, Durables, and Aggregate Consumption," NBER Working Papers 1038, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  4. Eichenbaum, Martin S & Hansen, Lars Peter & Singleton, Kenneth J, 1988. "A Time Series Analysis of Representative Agent Models of Consumption and Leisure Choice under Uncertainty," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, MIT Press, vol. 103(1), pages 51-78, February.
  5. Rubinstein, Mark, 1974. "An aggregation theorem for securities markets," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 1(3), pages 225-244, September.
  6. Mishkin, Frederic S, 1976. "Illiquidity, Consumer Durable Expenditure, and Monetary Policy," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 66(4), pages 642-54, September.
  7. Thomas J. Sargent, 1977. "Rational expectations, econometric exogeneity and consumption," Staff Report, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis 25, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
  8. Mankiw, N. Gregory, 1982. "Hall's consumption hypothesis and durable goods," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 10(3), pages 417-425.
  9. Mankiw, N Gregory & Rotemberg, Julio J & Summers, Lawrence H, 1985. "Intertemporal Substitution in Macroeconomics," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, MIT Press, vol. 100(1), pages 225-51, February.
  10. Grossman, Sanford J & Shiller, Robert J, 1981. "The Determinants of the Variability of Stock Market Prices," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 71(2), pages 222-27, May.
  11. Davidson, James E H, et al, 1978. "Econometric Modelling of the Aggregate Time-Series Relationship between Consumers' Expenditure and Income in the United Kingdom," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, Royal Economic Society, vol. 88(352), pages 661-92, December.
  12. Hall, Robert E, 1978. "Stochastic Implications of the Life Cycle-Permanent Income Hypothesis: Theory and Evidence," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, University of Chicago Press, vol. 86(6), pages 971-87, December.
  13. Peter M. Garber & Robert G. King, 1983. "Deep Structral Excavation? A Critique of Euler Equation Methods," NBER Technical Working Papers 0031, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  14. Davidson, James E. H. & Hendry, David F., 1981. "Interpreting econometric evidence : The behaviour of consumers' expenditure in the UK," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 16(1), pages 177-192.
  15. Shapiro, Matthew D., 1984. "The permanent income hypothesis and the real interest rate : Some evidence from panel data," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 14(1), pages 93-100.
  16. Killingsworth,Mark R., 1984. "Labor Supply," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521299169, 9.
  17. Hansen, Lars Peter, 1982. "Large Sample Properties of Generalized Method of Moments Estimators," Econometrica, Econometric Society, Econometric Society, vol. 50(4), pages 1029-54, July.
  18. Kelvin J. Lancaster, 1966. "A New Approach to Consumer Theory," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, University of Chicago Press, vol. 74, pages 132.
  19. Robert J. Shiller, 1982. "Consumption, Asset Markets, and Macroeconomic Fluctuations," NBER Working Papers 0838, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  20. Mervyn A. King, 1983. "The Economics of Saving," NBER Working Papers 1247, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  21. Flavin, Marjorie A, 1981. "The Adjustment of Consumption to Changing Expectations about Future Income," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, University of Chicago Press, vol. 89(5), pages 974-1009, October.
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  24. Fumio Hayashi, 1979. "The Permanent Income Hypothesis: Estimation and Testing," Discussion Papers 484, Northwestern University, Center for Mathematical Studies in Economics and Management Science.
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Cited by:
  1. Martin S. Eichenbaum & Kenneth J. Singleton, 1986. "Do Equilibrium Real Business Cycle Theories Explain Post-War U.S. Business Cycles?," NBER Working Papers 1932, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Attanasio, Orazio P & Weber, Guglielmo, 1995. "Is Consumption Growth Consistent with Intertemporal Optimization? Evidence from the Consumer Expenditure Survey," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, University of Chicago Press, vol. 103(6), pages 1121-57, December.
  3. Stig V. Møller & Jesper Rangvid, 2012. "End-of-the-year economic growth and time-varying expected returns," CREATES Research Papers 2012-42, School of Economics and Management, University of Aarhus.
  4. Arrau, Patricio & van Wijnbergen, Sweder, 1991. "Intertemporal substitution, risk aversion, and private savings in Mexico," Policy Research Working Paper Series 682, The World Bank.
  5. Ferson, Wayne E. & Constantinides, George M., 1991. "Habit persistence and durability in aggregate consumption: Empirical tests," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(2), pages 199-240, October.
  6. Ogaki, Masao & Park, Joon Y., 1997. "A cointegration approach to estimating preference parameters," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 82(1), pages 107-134.
  7. Martha Starr-McCluer, 2000. "The effects of weather on retail sales," Finance and Economics Discussion Series, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) 2000-08, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  8. Miron, Jeffrey A & Zeldes, Stephen P, 1988. "Seasonality, Cost Shocks, and the Production Smoothing Models of Inventories," Econometrica, Econometric Society, Econometric Society, vol. 56(4), pages 877-908, July.
  9. Hardouvelis, Gikas A & Malliaropoulos, Dimitrios, 2004. "The Yield Spread as a Symmetric Predictor of Output and Inflation," CEPR Discussion Papers 4314, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  10. Gianluca Cubadda, 2001. "Common Features In Time Series With Both Deterministic And Stochastic Seasonality," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 20(2), pages 201-216.
  11. Cellini, Roberto & Cuccia, Tiziana, 2011. "Are exchange rates really free from seasonality? An exploratory analysis on monthly time series," MPRA Paper 30888, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  12. Fumio Hayashi, 1985. "Tests for Liquidity Constraints: A Critical Survey," NBER Working Papers 1720, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  13. Masao Ogaki, 2003. "Aggregation under Complete Markets," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 6(4), pages 977-986, October.
  14. Juan-Ángel Jiménez-Martín & Rafael Flores de Frutos, 2004. "Seasonal Fluctuations and Dynamic Equilibrium Models of Exchange Rate," Documentos de Trabajo del ICAE 0413, Universidad Complutense de Madrid, Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y Empresariales, Instituto Complutense de Análisis Económico.
  15. Andrew B. Abel & Laurence J. Kotlikoff, 1988. "Does the Consumption of Different Age Groups Move Together? A New Nonparametric Test of Intergenerational Altruism," NBER Working Papers 2490, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  16. Sangdai Ryoo, 2002. "Testing for Sunspot in the Foreign Exchange Market," International Economic Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 16(3), pages 39-58.
  17. Kris Jacobs & Kevin Q. Wang, 2002. "Idiosyncratic Consumption Risk and the Cross-Section of Asset Returns," CIRANO Working Papers 2002s-11, CIRANO.

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