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Consumption, Asset Markets, and Macroeconomic Fluctuations

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Robert J. Shiller

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Abstract

A broad exploratory data analysis is conducted to assess the promise of a kind of model in which long-term asset prices change through time primarily due to consumption related changes in the rate of discount. Aggregate consumption data are used to infer ex-post marginal rates of substitution. Prices of stocks, bonds, short debt, land and housing are examined for the period 1890 to 1980, Methods are explored of evaluating this kind of model in the absence of accurate data on consumption.

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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 0838.

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Date of creation: Jan 1982
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Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:0838

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  1. John H. Cochrane, 1997. "Where is the market going? Uncertain facts and novel theories," Economic Perspectives, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, issue Nov, pages 3-37. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. Selahattin Imrohoroglu, 2004. "A Note on the McGrattan and Prescott (2003) Adjustments and the Equity Premium Puzzle," Macroeconomics 0402009, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
  3. Robert E. Hall, 1987. "Consumption," NBER Working Papers 2265, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Ricardo M. Sousa, 2007. "Expectations, Shocks, and Asset Returns," NIPE Working Papers 29/2007, NIPE - Universidade do Minho. [Downloadable!]
  5. Robert J. Shiller, 2002. "From Efficient Market Theory to Behavioral Finance," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1385, Cowles Foundation, Yale University. [Downloadable!]
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  6. David A. Chapman, 2002. "Does Intrinsic Habit Formation Actually Resolve the Equity Premium Puzzle?," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 5(3), pages 618-645, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Wayne E. Ferson & Andrew Siegel, 2002. "Stochastic Discount Factor Bounds with Conditioning Information," NBER Working Papers 8789, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  8. Jeffrey A. Miron, 1987. "Seasonal Fluctuations and the Life Cycle-Permanent Income Model of Consumption," NBER Working Papers 1845, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  9. Jonathan Parker & Bruce Preston, 2002. "Precautionary Saving and Consumption Fluctuations," NBER Working Papers 9196, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  10. Matthew D. Shapiro & N. Gregory Mankiw, 1985. "Risk and Return: Consumption Beta Versus Market Beta," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 738, Cowles Foundation, Yale University. [Downloadable!]
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  11. Tack Yun & Wooheon Rhee, 2004. "Implications of Quasi-Geometric Discounting on the Observable Sharpe Ratio," Econometric Society 2004 North American Summer Meetings 243, Econometric Society. [Downloadable!]
  12. Robert B. Barsky, 1986. "Why Don't the Prices of Stocks and Bonds Move Together?," NBER Working Papers 2047, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  13. Jonathan A. Parker, 2003. "Consumption Risk and Expected Stock Returns," NBER Working Papers 9548, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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