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Why Don't the Prices of Stocks and Bonds Move Together?

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Author Info
Barsky, Robert B

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Abstract

The 1970s were associated with very low real interest rates and a large drop in equity values relative to dividends and earnings. This paper explores the possible roles of increased risk and reduced productivity growth in accounting for the behavior of bond and stock prices in a simple general equilibrium model. Both disturbances unambiguously lower the riskless interest rate, but may cause the stock market to respond perversely depending on the degree of aversion to intertemporal substitution and the share of the corporate sector in total wealth. Copyright 1989 by American Economic Association.

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Publisher Info
Article provided by American Economic Association in its journal American Economic Review.

Volume (Year): 79 (1989)
Issue (Month): 5 (December)
Pages: 1132-45
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Handle: RePEc:aea:aecrev:v:79:y:1989:i:5:p:1132-45

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Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Prescott, Edward C & Mehra, Rajnish, 1980. "Recursive Competitive Equilibrium: The Case of Homogeneous Households," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(6), pages 1365-79, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Shiller, Robert J., 1982. "Consumption, asset markets and macroeconomic fluctuations," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 17(1), pages 203-238, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Rothschild, Michael & Stiglitz, Joseph E., 1970. "Increasing risk: I. A definition," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 2(3), pages 225-243, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Lucas, Robert E, Jr, 1978. "Asset Prices in an Exchange Economy," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 46(6), pages 1429-45, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. King, Robert G & Plosser, Charles I, 1984. "Money, Credit, and Prices in a Real Business Cycle," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 74(3), pages 363-80, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Rajnish Mehra, 2006. "Recursive Competitive Equilibrium," NBER Working Papers 12433, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Pindyck, Robert S., 1983. "Risk, inflation, and the stock market," Working papers 1423-83., Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Sloan School of Management. [Downloadable!]
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  8. Fama, Eugene F, 1976. "Inflation Uncertainty and Expected Returns on Treasury Bills," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 84(3), pages 427-48, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Donaldson, John B & Mehra, Rajnish, 1984. "Comparative Dynamics of an Equilibrium Intertemporal Asset Pricing Model," Review of Economic Studies, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 51(3), pages 491-508, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. Sandmo, Agnar, 1969. "Capital Risk, Consumption, and Portfolio Choice," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 37(4), pages 586-99, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  11. James M. Poterba, 1983. "Tax Subsidies to Owner-occupied Housing: An Asset Market Approach," Working papers 339, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Department of Economics.
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  12. Greenwood, Jeremy & Huffman, Gregory W., 1987. "A dynamic equilibrium model of inflation and unemployment," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 19(2), pages 203-228, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  13. Zvi Bodie & Alex Kane & Robert McDonald, 1985. "Inflation and the Role of Bonds in Investor Portfolios," NBER Chapters, in: Corporate Capital Structures in the United States, pages 167-196 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!]
  14. Robert E. Hall, 1988. "Intertemporal Substitution in Consumption," NBER Working Papers 0720, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  15. Campbell, John Y, 1986. "Bond and Stock Returns in a Simple Exchange Model," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 101(4), pages 785-803, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  16. Zvi Bodie & Alex Kane & Robert L. McDonald, 1985. "Inflation and the Role of Bonds in Investor Portfolios," NBER Working Papers 1091, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  17. Robert J. Shiller, 1982. "Consumption, Asset Markets, and Macroeconomic Fluctuations," NBER Working Papers 0838, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  19. Mehra, Rajnish & Prescott, Edward C., 1985. "The equity premium: A puzzle," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 15(2), pages 145-161, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  20. James M. Poterba & Lawrence H. Summers, 1984. "The Persistence of Volatility and Stock Market Fluctuations," Working papers 353, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Department of Economics.
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  21. Shiller, Robert J, 1981. "Do Stock Prices Move Too Much to be Justified by Subsequent Changes in Dividends?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 71(3), pages 421-36, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  22. Feldstein, Martin, 1980. "Inflation and the Stock Market," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 70(5), pages 839-47, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  23. Rothschild, Michael & Stiglitz, Joseph E., 1971. "Increasing risk II: Its economic consequences," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 3(1), pages 66-84, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  24. Lawrence H. Summers, 1984. "The Nonadjustment of Nominal Interest Rates: A Study of the Fisher Effect," NBER Working Papers 0836, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  25. Sandmo, Agnar, 1970. "The Effect of Uncertainty on Saving Decisions," Review of Economic Studies, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 37(3), pages 353-60, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  26. Malkiel, Burton G, 1979. "The Capital Formation Problem in the United States," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 34(2), pages 291-306, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  27. LeRoy, Stephen F & Porter, Richard D, 1981. "The Present-Value Relation: Tests Based on Implied Variance Bounds," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 49(3), pages 555-74, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  28. Mankiw, N Gregory & Romer, David & Shapiro, Matthew D, 1985. " An Unbiased Reexamination of Stock Market Volatility," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 40(3), pages 677-87, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  29. John Y. Campbell & Robert J. Shiller, 1989. "The Dividend-Price Ratio and Expectations of Future Dividends and Discount Factors," NBER Working Papers 2100, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  30. Dreze, Jacques H. & Modigliani, Franco, 1972. "Consumption decisions under uncertainty," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 5(3), pages 308-335, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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