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Inflation, the Stock Market, and Owner-Occupied Housing

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  • Summers, Lawrence H

Abstract

This paper suggests that to a large extent. the increases in the value of housing and decreases in the value of corporate capital may have a common explanation, the inter- action of inflation and a nonindexed tax system. The acceleration of inflation has sharply increased the effective rate of taxation of corporate capital income, while reducing the effective taxation of owner- occupied housing. These changes have been capitalized in the form of changing asset prices. In the long run, they will lead to significant changes in the size and composition of the capital stock. The first section of the paper describes in more detail the nonneutralities caused by inflation. A simple model showing how inflation and taxation interact to determine asset prices is presented in the second section. The third section presents some crude empirical tests suggesting that increases in the expected rate of inflation may account for a significant part of the asset price changes which have been observed. A final section concludes the paper by commenting on some implications of the results.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by American Economic Association in its journal American Economic Review.

Volume (Year): 71 (1981)
Issue (Month): 2 (May)
Pages: 429-34

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Handle: RePEc:aea:aecrev:v:71:y:1981:i:2:p:429-34

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Cited by:
  1. Roger Craine, 1983. "The baby boom, the housing market and the stock market," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Spr, pages 6-11.
  2. Dirk Kiesewetter & Kristin Schönemann, 2011. "Der Einfluss von Steuern und Subventionen auf die Rendite fremd‐ und selbst genutzter Wohnimmobilien in Deutschland," Perspektiven der Wirtschaftspolitik, Verein für Socialpolitik, vol. 12(2), pages 104-131, 05.
  3. Madsen, Jakob B., 2009. "Taxes and the fundamental value of houses," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 39(3), pages 365-376, May.
  4. Omran, Mohammed & Pointon, John, 2001. "Does the inflation rate affect the performance of the stock market? The case of Egypt," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 2(3), pages 263-279, September.
  5. James Berkovec & Don Fullerton, 1989. "The General Equilibrium Effects of Inflation on Housing Consumption and Investment," NBER Working Papers 2826, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  6. Marjorie Flavin & Takashi Yamashita, 1998. "Owner-Occupied Housing and the Composition of the Household Portfolio Over the Life-Cycle," NBER Working Papers 6389, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  7. Bruno, Salvatore & Chincarini, Ludwig, 2010. "A historical examination of optimal real return portfolios for non-US investors," Review of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 19(4), pages 161-178, October.
  8. Jonathan Skinner, 1990. "The Dynamic Efficiency Cost of Not taxing Housing," NBER Working Papers 3454, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  9. Schulz, Rainer & Werwatz, Axel, 2011. "Is there an equilibrating relationship between house prices and replacement cost? Empirical evidence from Berlin," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 69(3), pages 288-302, May.
  10. Todd Sinai & Nicholas S. Souleles, 2003. "Owner-Occupied Housing as a Hedge Against Rent Risk," NBER Working Papers 9462, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  11. Eric M. Engen & William G. Gale & John Karl Scholz, 1996. "The Illusory Effects of Saving Incentives on Saving," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 10(4), pages 113-138, Fall.
  12. Madsen, Jakob B., 2002. "The share market boom and the recent disinflation in the OECD countries: the tax-effects, the inflation-illusion and the risk-aversion hypotheses reconsidered1," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 42(1), pages 115-141.
  13. Sellin, Peter, 1998. "Monetary Policy and the Stock Market: Theory and Empirical Evidence," Working Paper Series 72, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden).
  14. James Berkovec & Don Fullerton, 1993. "A General Equilibrium Model of Housing, Taxes, and Portfolio Choice," NBER Working Papers 3505, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  15. Sellin, Peter, 2001. " Monetary Policy and the Stock Market: Theory and Empirical Evidence," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 15(4), pages 491-541, September.
  16. Eric M. Engen & William G. Gale & John Karl Scholz, 1996. "The Effects of Tax-Based Saving Incentives On Saving and Wealth," NBER Working Papers 5759, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  17. Eric M. Engen & William G. Gale, 2000. "The Effects of 401(k) Plans on Household Wealth: Differences Across Earnings Groups," NBER Working Papers 8032, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  18. Anderson, Hamish D. & Malone, Christopher B. & Marshall, Ben R., 2008. "Investment returns under right- and left-wing governments in Australasia," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 16(3), pages 252-267, June.

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