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Tax Policy, Asset Prices, and Growth: A General Equilibrium Analysis

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Author Info
Lawrence H. Goulder
Lawrence H. Summers

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Abstract

This paper presents a multisector general equilibrium model that is capable of providing integrated assessments of the economy's short- and long- run responses to tax policy changes. The model contains an explicit treatment of firm's investment decisions according to which producers exhibit forward- looking behavior and take account of adjustment costs inherent in the installation of new capital. This permits an examination of both short-run effects of tax policy on industry profits and asset prices as well as 1ong-term effects on capital accumulation. The model contains considerable detail on U.S. industry, corporate financial policies, and the U.S. tax system. Simulation results reveal that the effects of tax policy differ significantly depending on whether the policy is oriented toward new or old capital measures like the investment tax credit stimulate investment without conferring significant windfall gains on corporate shareholders. Corporate tax rate reductions with the same revenue cost, on the other hand, yield large windfalls to shareholders while providing only a modest stimulus to investment in plant and equipment.

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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 2128.

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Date of creation: Jan 1987
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Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:2128

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Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Fullerton, Don, 1983. "Transition Losses of Partially Mobile Industry-Specific Capital," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 98(1), pages 107-25, February.
    Other versions:
  2. Shoven, John B. & Whalley, John, 1972. "A general equilibrium calculation of the effects of differential taxation of income from capital in the U.S," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 1(3-4), pages 281-321, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  3. James M. Poterba & Lawrence H. Summers, 1985. "The Economic Effects of Dividend Taxation," NBER Working Papers 1353, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  4. Blanchard, Olivier J, 1985. "Debt, Deficits, and Finite Horizons," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 93(2), pages 223-47, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  5. Fair, Ray C & Taylor, John B, 1983. "Solution and Maximum Likelihood Estimation of Dynamic Nonlinear Rational Expectations Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 51(4), pages 1169-85, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  6. Shoven, John B & Whalley, John, 1984. "Applied General-Equilibrium Models of Taxation and International Trade: An Introduction and Survey," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 22(3), pages 1007-51, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Lawrence H. Summers, 1981. "Taxation and Corporate Investment: A q-Theory Approach," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 12(1981-1), pages 67-140. [Downloadable!]
  8. Lawrence H. Summers, 1988. "Taxation and the Size and Composition of the Capital Stock: An Asset Price Approach," NBER Working Papers 1709, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Tobin, James, 1969. "A General Equilibrium Approach to Monetary Theory," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 1(1), pages 15-29, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. James M. Poterba, 1985. "Inflation, Income Taxes, and Owner-Occupied Housing," NBER Working Papers 0553, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  11. Alan J. Auerbach & James R. Hines Jr., 1986. "Tax Reform, Investment, and the Value of the Firm," NBER Working Papers 1803, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  12. Robert E. Lucas & Jr., 1967. "Adjustment Costs and the Theory of Supply," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 75, pages 321. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Diao, X. & Roe, T.L. & Yeldan, A.E., 1998. "How Fiscal (Mis)-Management May Impede Trade Reform: Lessons From an Intertemporal, Multi-Sector General Equilibrium Model for Turkey," Bulletins 7459, University of Minnesota, Economic Development Center. [Downloadable!]
  2. Don Fullerton & Yolanda K. Henderson, 1990. "The Marginal Excess Burden of Different Capital Tax Instruments," NBER Working Papers 2353, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  3. Diao, Xinshen & Roe, Terry, 1996. "A Dynamic CGE Model of R&D Based Growth in the U.S. Economy: An Experiment Using the New Growth Theory," 1996: Implications of the New Growth Theory to Agricultural Trade Research and Trade Policy Conference, December 1996, Washington DC 50866, International Agricultural Trade Research Consortium. [Downloadable!]
  4. Lawrence H. Goulder & Barry Eichengreen, 1989. "Savings Promotion, Investment Promotion, and International Competitiveness," NBER Working Papers 2635, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  5. James M. Poterba, 1991. "Taxation and Housing Markets: Preliminary Evidence on the Effects of Recent Tax Reforms," NBER Working Papers 3270, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Christian Keuschnigg, 1991. "The Transition to a Cash Flow Income Tax," Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics (SJES), Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics (SSES), vol. 127(II), pages 113-140, June. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  7. Leon Bettendorf & Albert van der Horst, 2006. "Documentation of CORTAX," CPB Memoranda 161, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis. [Downloadable!]
  8. Chirinko, Robert S. & Schiantarelli, Fabio, 1991. "Delivery Lags, Adjustment Costs, and Econometric Investment Models," Working Papers 91-41, C.V. Starr Center for Applied Economics, New York University. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  9. Lawrence H. Goulder & Barry Eichengreen, 1989. "Trade Liberalization in General Equilibrium: Intertemporal and Inter-Industry Effects," NBER Working Papers 2965, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  10. AKITOBY, Bernardin, 1997. "Rigidité normale, dévaluation et équilibre général intertemporel," Cahiers de recherche 9708, Universite de Montreal, Departement de sciences economiques. [Downloadable!]
  11. Jukka Lassila & Tarmo Valkonen, 2002. "Social Security Financing and External Shocks," Discussion Papers 662, The Research Institute of the Finnish Economy. [Downloadable!]
  12. Bruce F. Parsell & Alan A. Powell & Peter J. Wilcoxen, 1989. "The Reconciliation of Computable General Equilibrium and Macroeconomic Modelling: Grounds for Hope?," Centre of Policy Studies/IMPACT Centre Working Papers ip-44, Monash University, Centre of Policy Studies/IMPACT Centre. [Downloadable!]
  13. Diao, Xinshen & Somwaru, Agapi, 1997. "Trade Creation And Trade Diversion Under Mercorsur: A Global Intertemporal General Equilibrium Analysis," Staff Papers 13977, University of Minnesota, Department of Applied Economics. [Downloadable!]
  14. Go, Delfin S., 1991. "External shocks, adjustment policies, and investment : illustrations from a forward-looking CGE model of the Philippines," Policy Research Working Paper Series 737, The World Bank. [Downloadable!]
  15. Michael Dotsey, 1987. "The economic effects of corporate taxes in a stochastic growth model," Working Paper 87-04, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond. [Downloadable!]
  16. Peter Berck & Andrew Dabalen, 1995. "A CGE model for California tax policy analysis: a review of literature," Department of Agricultural & Resource Economics, UC Berkeley, Working Paper Series 767, Department of Agricultural & Resource Economics, UC Berkeley. [Downloadable!]
  17. Wilbur John Coleman II, 1989. "Equilibrium in a production economy with an income tax," International Finance Discussion Papers 366, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  18. Lawrence H. Goulder, 1989. "Tax Policy, Housing Prices, and Housing Investment," NBER Working Papers 2814, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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