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Statistical Inference for Computable General Equilibrium Models with Application to a Model of the Moroccan Economy

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  • ABDELKHALEK, Touhami
  • DUFOUR, Jean-Marie

Abstract

We study the problem of measuring the uncertainty of CGE (or RBC)-type model simulations associated with parameter uncertainty. We describe two approaches for building confidence sets on model endogenous variables. The first one uses a standard Wald-type statistic. The second approach assumes that a confidence set (sampling or Bayesian) is available for the free parameters, from which confidence sets are derived by a projection technique. The latter has two advantages: first, confidence set validity is not affected by model nonlinearities; second, we can easily build simultaneous confidence intervals for an unlimited number of variables. We study conditions under which these confidence sets take the form of intervals and show they can be implemented using standard methods for solving CGE models. We present an application to a CGE model of the Moroccan economy to study the effects of policy-induced increases of transfers from Moroccan expatriates.

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File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/1866/448
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Universite de Montreal, Departement de sciences economiques in its series Cahiers de recherche with number 9713.

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Length: 40 pages
Date of creation: 1997
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:mtl:montde:9713

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Keywords: confidence interval; confidence set; comtable general equilibrium models; sensitivity analysis; calibration; ojection; Morocco; fiscal licy;

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References

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  1. Dufour, J.M. & Kiviet, J.F., 1995. "Exact Inference Methods for First-Order Autoregressive Distributed Lag Models," Cahiers de recherche 9547, Centre interuniversitaire de recherche en économie quantitative, CIREQ.
  2. Kiviet, Jan F. & Dufour, Jean-Marie, 1997. "Exact tests in single equation autoregressive distributed lag models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 80(2), pages 325-353, October.
  3. Pagan, A R & Shannon, J H, 1987. "How Reliable Are ORAN I Conclusions?," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 63(180), pages 33-45, March.
  4. Dufour, J.-M., 1986. "Exact tests and confidence sets in linear regressions with autocorrelated errors," CORE Discussion Papers 1986037, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
  5. Jean-Marie Dufour, 1997. "Some Impossibility Theorems in Econometrics with Applications to Structural and Dynamic Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 65(6), pages 1365-1388, November.
  6. Shoven,John B. & Whalley,John, 1992. "Applying General Equilibrium," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521266550, April.
  7. Allan W. Gregory & Gregor W. Smith, 1987. "Calibration as Estimation," Working Papers 700, Queen's University, Department of Economics.
  8. Harrison, Glenn W. & Jones, Richard & Kimbell, Larry J. & Wigle, Randal, 1993. "How robust is applied general equilibrium analysis?," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 15(1), pages 99-115, February.
  9. Feve, Patrick & Langot, Francois, 1994. "The RBC Models through Statistical Inference: An Application with French Data," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 9(S), pages S11-35, Suppl. De.
  10. Allan W. Gregory & Gregor W. Smith, 1991. "Calibration in Macroeconomics," Working Papers 826, Queen's University, Department of Economics.
  11. Wigle, Randall M, 1991. "The Pagan-Shannon Approximation: Unconditional Systematic Sensitivity in Minutes," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 16(1), pages 35-49.
  12. Scarf,Herbert E. & Shoven,John B., 2008. "Applied General Equilibrium Analysis," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521070935, April.
  13. Campbell, B. & Dufour, J.M., 1994. "Excat Nonparametric Tests of Orthogonality and Random Walk in the Presence of a Drift Parameter," Cahiers de recherche 9407, Universite de Montreal, Departement de sciences economiques.
  14. Dufour, Jean-Marie, 1989. "Nonlinear Hypotheses, Inequality Restrictions, and Non-nested Hypotheses: Exact Simultaneous Tests in Linear Regressions," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(2), pages 335-55, March.
  15. Dufour, Jean-Marie & Kiviet, Jan F., 1996. "Exact tests for structural change in first-order dynamic models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 70(1), pages 39-68, January.
  16. Shoven, John B & Whalley, John, 1984. "Applied General-Equilibrium Models of Taxation and International Trade: An Introduction and Survey," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 22(3), pages 1007-51, September.
  17. Ballard, Charles L. & Fullerton, Don & Shoven, John B. & Whalley, John, 2009. "A General Equilibrium Model for Tax Policy Evaluation," National Bureau of Economic Research Books, University of Chicago Press, edition 0, number 9780226036335, January.
  18. Canova, Fabio, 1994. "Statistical Inference in Calibrated Models," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 9(S), pages S123-44, Suppl. De.
  19. Kehoe, Timothy J, 1983. "Regularity and Index Theory for Economies with Smooth Production Technologies," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 51(4), pages 895-917, July.
  20. Harrison, Glenn W & Vinod, H D, 1992. "The Sensitivity Analysis of Applied General Equilibrium Models: Completely Randomized Factorial Sampling Designs," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 74(2), pages 357-62, May.
  21. Gregory, Allan W & Smith, Gregor W, 1991. "Calibration as Testing: Inference in Simulated Macroeconomic Models," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 9(3), pages 297-303, July.
  22. Charles L. Ballard & Don Fullerton & John B. Shoven & John Whalley, 1985. "General Equilibrium Analysis of Tax Policies," NBER Chapters, in: A General Equilibrium Model for Tax Policy Evaluation, pages 6-24 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Ghazalian, Pascal & Tamini, Lota & Larue, Bruno & Gervais, Jean-Philippe, 2007. "A Gravity approach to evaluate the significance of trade liberalization in vertically-related goods in the presence of non-tariff barriers," MPRA Paper 2744, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  2. Dufour, Jean-Marie, 2001. "Logique et tests d’hypothèses," L'Actualité Economique, Société Canadienne de Science Economique, vol. 77(2), pages 171-190, juin.
  3. Tamini, Lota & Ghazalian, Pascal & Gervais, Jean-Philippe & Larue, Bruno, 2006. "Domestic support and tariff reductions in the presence of non-tariff barriers: A gravity model for primary and processed agricultural products," MPRA Paper 2743, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 01 Dec 2006.
  4. Thomas Hertel & David Hummels & Maros Ivanic & Roman Keeney, 2004. "How Confident Can We Be in CGE-Based Assessments of Free Trade Agreements?," NBER Working Papers 10477, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  5. Firmin Doko Tchatoka & Jean-Marie Dufour, 2014. "Identification-robust inference for endogeneity parameters in linear structural models," CIRANO Working Papers 2014s-17, CIRANO.
  6. Beaulieu, Marie-Claude & Dufour, Jean-Marie & Khalaf, Lynda, 2014. "Exact confidence sets and goodness-of-fit methods for stable distributions," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 181(1), pages 3-14.
  7. Jean-Marie Dufour & Abderrahim Taamouti, 2008. "Exact optimal and adaptive inference in regression models under heteroskedasticity and non-normality of unknown forms," Economics Working Papers we086027, Universidad Carlos III, Departamento de Economía.
  8. Tracy Foertsch, 2004. "Macroeconomic Impacts of Stylized Tax Cuts in an Intertemporal Computable General Equilibrium Model: Technical Paper 2004-11," Working Papers 15914, Congressional Budget Office.
  9. Dufour, Jean-Marie & Taamouti, Abderrahim, 2010. "Exact optimal inference in regression models under heteroskedasticity and non-normality of unknown form," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 54(11), pages 2532-2553, November.
  10. Dufour, J.M., 2001. "Logique et tests d'hypotheses: reflexions sur les problemes mal poses en econometrie," Cahiers de recherche 2001-15, Centre interuniversitaire de recherche en économie quantitative, CIREQ.
  11. Bolduc, Denis & Khalaf, Lynda & Yélou, Clément, 2010. "Identification robust confidence set methods for inference on parameter ratios with application to discrete choice models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 157(2), pages 317-327, August.
  12. Nabil Annabi & John Cockburn & Bernard Decaluwé, 2006. "Functional Forms and Parametrization of CGE Models," Working Papers MPIA 2006-04, PEP-MPIA.
  13. Dufour, Jean-Marie & Khalaf, Lynda & Kichian, Maral, 2013. "Identification-robust analysis of DSGE and structural macroeconomic models," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(3), pages 340-350.
  14. Robert Amano1 & Kim McPhail & Hope Pioro & Andrew Rennison, 2002. "Evaluating the Quarterly Projection Model: A Preliminary Investigation," Working Papers 02-20, Bank of Canada.
  15. Dufour, Jean-Marie & Neifar, Malika, 2002. "Méthodes d’inférence exactes pour des processus autorégressifs : une approche fondée sur des tests induits," L'Actualité Economique, Société Canadienne de Science Economique, vol. 78(1), pages 19-40, Mars.
  16. Luger, Richard, 2012. "Finite-sample bootstrap inference in GARCH models with heavy-tailed innovations," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 56(11), pages 3198-3211.
  17. Denis Bolduc & Lynda Khalaf & Clément Yélou, 2005. "Identification Robust Confidence Sets Methods for Inference on Parameter Ratios and their Application to Estimating Value-of-Time," Computing in Economics and Finance 2005 48, Society for Computational Economics.

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