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Die Evaluation von Steuerreformen durch Simulationsmodelle

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  • Peichl, Andreas

Abstract

In diesem Beitrag wird die Simulationsanalyse als eine Methode zur empirischen Evaluation von Steuerreformen präsentiert und ein Überblick über die empirische Literatur gegeben. Simulationsanalysen im Bereich der Steuer- und Sozialpolitik können als ökonomisches Experiment verstanden werden, um die komplexen Auswirkungen und insbesondere die Beschäftigungseffekte einer Reform des Steuer- und Transfersystems ex ante zu quantifizieren und anhand dieser Berechnungen eine Entscheidungshilfe für die Auswahl der besten Alternative zu bieten. Im Rahmen dieser Arbeit werden fünf verschiedene Modellklassen vorgestellt, miteinander verglichen und jeweils mögliche Anwendungsgebiete beispielhaft präsentiert. Bei den makroökonometrischen Modellen haben sich die allgemeinen Gleichgewichtsmodelle gegenüber den makroökonomischen Modellen, bei den mikroökonometrischen Modellen die Mikrosimulationsmodelle gegen die Gruppensimulationsmodelle durchgesetzt. CGE-Modelle betrachten die gesamtwirtschaftlichen Effekte und basieren auf hoch aggregierten Daten, während die partialanalytischen Mikrosimulationsmodelle auf Mikrodaten zurückgreifen und deshalb die Modellierung viel komplexerer Regelungen und Reformen ermöglichen. In letzter Zeit ist mit den kombinierten Mikro-Makro-Simulationsmodellen eine neue Klasse entstanden, die die Vorteile beider Varianten zu nutzen versucht. --

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Paper provided by University of Cologne, FiFo Institute for Public Economics in its series FiFo Discussion Papers - Finanzwissenschaftliche Diskussionsbeiträge with number 05-1.

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Date of creation: 2005
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Handle: RePEc:zbw:uoccpe:5140

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Keywords: Simulation; AGE; CGE; Mikrosimulation; Steuerreform;

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References

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Cited by:
  1. Peichl, Andreas, 2008. "The benefits of linking CGE and Microsimulation Models - Evidence from a Flat Tax analysis," FiFo Discussion Papers - Finanzwissenschaftliche Diskussionsbeiträge 08-6, University of Cologne, FiFo Institute for Public Economics.
  2. Andreas Peichl & Thilo Schaefer, 2009. "FiFoSiM - an integrated tax benefit microsimulation and CGE model for Germany," International Journal of Microsimulation, Interational Microsimulation Association, vol. 2(1), pages 1-15.
  3. Fuest, Clemens & Peichl, Andreas & Schaefer, Thilo, 2007. "Is a Flat Tax Feasible in a Grown-up Welfare State?," IZA Discussion Papers 3142, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
  4. Peichl, Andreas & Fuest, Clemens & Bergs, Christian & Schaefer, Thilo, 2006. "Reformoptionen der Familienbesteuerung - Aufkommens-, Verteilungs- und Arbeitsangebotseffekte," FiFo Discussion Papers - Finanzwissenschaftliche Diskussionsbeiträge 06-8, University of Cologne, FiFo Institute for Public Economics.
  5. Schaefer, Thilo & Peichl, Andreas & Fuest, Clemens, 2007. "Is a Flat Tax politically feasible in a grown-up Welfare State?," FiFo Discussion Papers - Finanzwissenschaftliche Diskussionsbeiträge 07-6, University of Cologne, FiFo Institute for Public Economics.
  6. Clemens Fuest & Andreas Peichl & Thilo Schaefer, 2008. "Is a flat tax reform feasible in a grown-up democracy of Western Europe? A simulation study for Germany," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer, vol. 15(5), pages 620-636, October.
  7. Fuest, Clemens & Peichl, Andreas, 2009. "Grundeinkommen vs. Kombilohn: Beschäftigungs- und Finanzierungswirkungen und Unterschiede im Empfängerkreis," IZA Standpunkte 11, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
  8. Schaefer, Thilo & Peichl, Andreas, 2006. "Documentation FiFoSiM: integrated tax benefit microsimulation and CGE model," FiFo Discussion Papers - Finanzwissenschaftliche Diskussionsbeiträge 06-10, University of Cologne, FiFo Institute for Public Economics.
  9. Peichl, Andreas & Fuest, Clemens & Schaefer, Thilo, 2006. "Does tax simplification yield more equity and efficiency? An empirical analysis for Germany," FiFo Discussion Papers - Finanzwissenschaftliche Diskussionsbeiträge 06-5, University of Cologne, FiFo Institute for Public Economics.
  10. Clemens Fuest & Andreas Peichl & Thilo Schaefer, 2007. "Führt Steuervereinfachung zu einer „gerechteren” Einkommensverteilung? Eine empirische Analyse für Deutschland," Perspektiven der Wirtschaftspolitik, Verein für Socialpolitik, vol. 8(1), pages 20-37, 01.
  11. Clemens Fuest & Andreas Peichl & Thilo Schaefer, 2007. "Beschäftigungs- und Finanzierungswirkungen des Bürgergeldkonzepts von Dieter Althaus," Ifo Schnelldienst, Ifo Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 60(10), pages 36-40, 05.
  12. Peichl, Andreas & Fuest, Clemens & Schaefer, Thilo, 2005. "Dokumentation FiFoSiM: Integriertes Steuer-Transfer-Mikrosimulations- und CGE-Modell," FiFo Discussion Papers - Finanzwissenschaftliche Diskussionsbeiträge 05-3, University of Cologne, FiFo Institute for Public Economics.
  13. Clemens Fuest & Joachim Mitschke & Andreas Peichl & Thilo Schaefer, 2007. "Der Kölner Kombilohn für den Niedriglohnsektor," Ifo Schnelldienst, Ifo Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 60(11), pages 25-29, 06.
  14. Peichl, Andreas & Schaefer, Thilo & Scheicher, Christoph, 2006. "Measuring Richness and Poverty," FiFo Discussion Papers - Finanzwissenschaftliche Diskussionsbeiträge 06-11, University of Cologne, FiFo Institute for Public Economics.

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