We propose finite sample tests and confidence sets for models with unobserved and generated regressors as well as various models estimated by instrumental variables methods. The validity of the procedures is unaffected by the presence of identification problems or "weak instruments", so no detection of such problems is required. We study two distinct approaches for various models considered by Pagan (1984). The first one is an instrument substitution method which generalizes an approach proposed by Anderson and Rubin (1949) and Fuller (1987) for different (although related) problems, while the second one is based on splitting the sample. The instrument substitution method uses the instruments directly, instead of generated regressors, in order to test hypotheses about the "structural parameters" of interest and build confidence sets. The second approach relies on "generated regressors", which allows a gain in degrees of freedom, and a sample split technique. For inference about general possibly nonlinear transformations of model parameters, projection techniques are proposed. A distributional theory is obtained under the assumptions of Gaussian errors and strictly exogenous regressors. We show that the various tests and confidence sets proposed are (locally) "asymptotically valid" under much weaker assumptions. The properties of the tests proposed are examined in simulation experiments. In general, they outperform the usual asymptotic inference methods in terms of both reliability and power. Finally, the techniques suggested are applied to a model of Tobin’s q and to a model of academic performance.
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Paper provided by Universite de Montreal, Departement de sciences economiques in its series Cahiers de recherche with number
9812.
Find related papers by JEL classification: C1 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: General C12 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: General - - - Hypothesis Testing C3 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables C5 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling E22 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomics: Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Capital; Investment; Capacity I2 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Education J24 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Human Capital; Skills; Occupational Choice; Labor Productivity
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