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The Distribution Of The Instrumental Variables Estimator And Its T-Ratio When The Instrument Is A Poor One

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Author Info

  • NELSON, C.
  • STARTZ, R.

Abstract

When the instrumental variable is a poor one, in the sense of being weakly correlated with the variable it proxies, the small sample distribution of the IV estimator is concentrated around a value that is inversely related to the feedback in the system and which is often further from the true value than is the plim of OLS. The sample variance of residuals similarly becomes concentrated around a value which reflects feedback and not the variance of the disturbance. The distribution of the t-ratio reflects both of these effects, stronger feedback producing larger t-ratios. Thus, in situations where OLS is badly biased, a poor instrument will lead to spurious inferences under IV estimation with high probability, and generally perform worse than OLS.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Department of Economics at the University of Washington in its series Discussion Papers in Economics at the University of Washington with number 88-07.

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Length: 23 pages
Date of creation: 1988
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:fth:washer:88-07

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Keywords: instrumental variables ; estimator ; econometrics;

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  1. Nelson, Charles R & Startz, Richard, 1990. "Some Further Results on the Exact Small Sample Properties of the Instrumental Variable Estimator," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 58(4), pages 967-76, July.
  2. Hall, Robert E, 1978. "Stochastic Implications of the Life Cycle-Permanent Income Hypothesis: Theory and Evidence," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 86(6), pages 971-87, December.
  3. Hansen, Lars Peter & Singleton, Kenneth J, 1982. "Generalized Instrumental Variables Estimation of Nonlinear Rational Expectations Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(5), pages 1269-86, September.
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