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Valid Confidence Intervals and Inference in the Presence of Weak Instruments

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Author Info
Zivot, Eric
Startz, Richard
Nelson, Charles R

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Abstract

The authors investigate confidence intervals and inference for the instrumental variables model with weak instruments. Confidence intervals based on inverting the Lagrange multiplier (LM), likelihood ration (LR), and Anderson-Robin statistics perform far better than the Wald. Performance of the LM and LR statistics is improved by a degrees-of-freedom correction in the overidentified case. The practice of pretesting by looking at the significance of the first-stage regression and then making inference based on the LM or LR statistics leads to better results than pretesting and using the Wald statistic. Copyright 1998 by Economics Department of the University of Pennsylvania and the Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association.

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Publisher Info
Article provided by Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association in its journal International Economic Review.

Volume (Year): 39 (1998)
Issue (Month): 4 (November)
Pages: 1119-46
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Handle: RePEc:ier:iecrev:v:39:y:1998:i:4:p:1119-46

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  3. Angrist, Joshua D & Krueger, Alan B, 1991. "Does Compulsory School Attendance Affect Schooling and Earnings?," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 106(4), pages 979-1014, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  4. Hansen, Lars Peter, 1982. "Large Sample Properties of Generalized Method of Moments Estimators," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(4), pages 1029-54, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  10. Alastair R. Hall & Glenn D. Rudebusch & David W. Wilcox, 1994. "Judging instrument relevance in instrumental variables estimation," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 94-3, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
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  13. Jiahui Wang & Eric Zivot, 1996. "Inference on a Structural Parameter in Instrumental Variables Regression with Weak Instruments," Econometrics 9610005, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
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  14. Nelson, Charles R & Startz, Richard, 1990. "Some Further Results on the Exact Small Sample Properties of the Instrumental Variable Estimator," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 58(4), pages 967-76, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  15. Phillips, P.C.B., 1983. "Exact small sample theory in the simultaneous equations model," Handbook of Econometrics, in: Z. Griliches† & M. D. Intriligator (ed.), Handbook of Econometrics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 8, pages 449-516 Elsevier. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  1. Jean-Marie Dufour, 2001. "Logiques et tests d'hypothèses : réflexions sur les problèmes mal posés en économétrie," CIRANO Working Papers 2001s-40, CIRANO. [Downloadable!]
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  2. Richard Startz & Charles Nelson & Eric Zivot, 1999. "Improved Inference for the Instrumental Variable Estimator," Econometrics 9905001, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
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  3. Stephen L. Ross & Yves Zenou, 2007. "Are Shirking and Leisure Substitutable? An Empirical Test of Efficiency Wages Based on Urban Economic Theory," IZA Discussion Papers 2601, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA). [Downloadable!]
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  4. Lynda Khalaf & Maral Kichian, 2004. "Estimating New Keynesian Phillips Curves Using Exact Methods," Working Papers 04-11, Bank of Canada. [Downloadable!]
  5. Paul A. Bekker & Jan van der Ploeg, 2000. "Instrumental Variable Estimation Based on Grouped Data," Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers 1862, Econometric Society. [Downloadable!]
  6. Khalaf, Lynda & Kichian, Maral, 2003. "Are New Keynesian Phillips Curved Identified?," Cahiers de recherche 0312, GREEN. [Downloadable!]
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  7. Olsson, Ola, 2004. "Unbundling Ex-Colonies: A Comment on Acemoglu, Johnson, and Robinson, 2001," Working Papers in Economics 146, Göteborg University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  8. Jinyong Hahn & Atsushi Inoue, 2002. "A Monte Carlo Comparison Of Various Asymptotic Approximations To The Distribution Of Instrumental Variables Estimators," Econometric Reviews, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 21(3), pages 309-336. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. James M. Nason & Gregor W. Smith, 2005. "Identifying the New Keynesian Phillips Curve," Working Paper 2005-01, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta. [Downloadable!]
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  10. repec:bep:sndecm:11:2007:1:1434-1434 is not listed on IDEAS
  11. David Albouy, 2006. "The Colonial Origins of Comparative Development: An Investigation of the Settler Mortality Data," Center for International and Development Economics Research, Working Paper Series 1055, Center for International and Development Economics Research, Institute for Business and Economic Research, UC Berkeley. [Downloadable!]
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  12. Jinyong Hahn & Jerry Hausman & Guido Kuersteiner, 2005. "Bias Corrected Instrumental Variables Estimation for Dynamic Panel Models with Fixed E¤ects," Boston University - Department of Economics - Working Papers Series WP2005-024, Boston University - Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  13. Manjon-Antolin, M.C., 2004. "Econometric modelling in blockholder systems of corporate governance," Discussion Paper 74, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research. [Downloadable!]
  14. H.K. Van Dijk, 2002. "On Bayesian structural inference in a simultaneous equation model," Econometric Institute Report 263, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Econometric Institute. [Downloadable!]
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