Advanced Search
MyIDEAS: Login to save this paper or follow this series

Anticipated Tax Reforms and Temporary Tax Cuts: A General Equilibrium Analysis

Contents:

Author Info

  • Strulik, Holger
  • Trimborn, Timo

Abstract

Macroeconomic studies of tax policy in dynamic general equilibrium usually assume that reforms hit the economy unexpectedly and last forever. Here, we explore how previous results change when we allow policy changes to be pre-announced and of finite duration and when these facts are anticipated by households and firms. Quantitatively we demonstrate a headstart advantage from pre-announcement that is never caught up by a surprising reform. The welfare gain from announcement of a corporate tax cut, for example, is estimated to be around 10 percent of the total gain from the reform. We show that adjustment dynamics of important variables like firm value, dividend payout, and investment differs qualitatively depending on whether the reform comes expected or not. We are also able to demonstrate a genuine welfare gain from temporary tax cuts. Impulse responses generated by our numerical method can be retraced by phase diagram analysis which facilitates explanation and interpretation of the produced results.

Download Info

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
File URL: http://diskussionspapiere.wiwi.uni-hannover.de/pdf_bib/dp-406.pdf
Download Restriction: no

Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Leibniz Universität Hannover, Wirtschaftswissenschaftliche Fakultät in its series Hannover Economic Papers (HEP) with number dp-406.

as in new window
Length: 33 pages
Date of creation: Aug 2008
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:han:dpaper:dp-406

Contact details of provider:
Postal: Koenigsworther Platz 1, D-30167 Hannover
Phone: (0511) 762-5350
Fax: (0511) 762-5665
Web page: http://www.wiwi.uni-hannover.de
More information through EDIRC

Related research

Keywords: tax reform; anticipation effects; investment; economic growth; welfare; corporate finance; capital taxation;

Other versions of this item:

Find related papers by JEL classification:

This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

References

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
as in new window
  1. Alvarez, Luis H. R. & Kanniainen, Vesa & Sodersten, Jan, 1998. "Tax policy uncertainty and corporate investment: A theory of tax-induced investment spurts," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 69(1), pages 17-48, July.
  2. Mendoza, Enrique G. & Milesi-Ferretti, Gian Maria & Asea, Patrick, 1997. "On the ineffectiveness of tax policy in altering long-run growth: Harberger's superneutrality conjecture," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 66(1), pages 99-126, October.
  3. Karel Mertens & Morten Overgaard Ravn, 2010. "Online Appendix to "Understanding the Aggregate Effects of Anticipated and Unanticipated Tax Policy Shocks"," Technical Appendices 09-221, Review of Economic Dynamics.
  4. Kenneth L. Judd, 1983. "Short-Run Analysis of Fiscal Policy in a Simple Perfect Foresight Model," Discussion Papers 559, Northwestern University, Center for Mathematical Studies in Economics and Management Science.
  5. Rmalho, Rita & Ganser, Tim Christian & Shleifer, Andrei & McLiesh, Caralee & Djankov, Simeon, 2010. "The Effect of Corporate Taxes on Investment and Entrepreneurship," Scholarly Articles 8705900, Harvard University Department of Economics.
  6. Enrique G. Mendoza & Linda L. Tesar, 1995. "Supply-Side Economics in a Global Economy," NBER Working Papers 5086, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  7. James Poterba, 2004. "Taxation and Corporate Payout Policy," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 94(2), pages 171-175, May.
  8. Cooley, Thomas F. & Hansen, Gary D., 1992. "Tax distortions in a neoclassical monetary economy," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 58(2), pages 290-316, December.
  9. Holger Strulik, 2008. "The Credit Channel of Capital Tax Policy," Journal of Public Economic Theory, Association for Public Economic Theory, vol. 10(5), pages 717-742, October.
  10. Ballard, Charles L. & Fullerton, Don & Shoven, John B. & Whalley, John, 2009. "A General Equilibrium Model for Tax Policy Evaluation," National Bureau of Economic Research Books, University of Chicago Press, edition 0, number 9780226036335, August.
  11. Fran�ois Gourio & Jianjun Miao, 2010. "Firm Heterogeneity and the Long-Run Effects of Dividend Tax Reform," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 2(1), pages 131-68, January.
  12. Andrew Mountford & Harald Uhlig, 2008. "What are the Effects of Fiscal Policy Shocks?," NBER Working Papers 14551, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  13. Per Krusell & Anthony A. Smith, Jr., . "On the Welfare Effects of Eliminating Business Cycles," GSIA Working Papers 243, Carnegie Mellon University, Tepper School of Business.
  14. John R. Graham, 2000. "How Big Are the Tax Benefits of Debt?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 55(5), pages 1901-1941, October.
  15. Karl-Josef Koch & Timo Trimborn & Thomas M. Steger, 2005. "Multi-Dimensional Transitional Dynamics: A Simple Numerical Procedure," Volkswirtschaftliche Diskussionsbeiträge 121-05, Universität Siegen, Fakultät Wirtschaftswissenschaften, Wirtschaftsinformatik und Wirtschaftsrecht.
  16. King, R.G. & Baxter, M., 1990. "Fiscal Policy In General Equilibrium," RCER Working Papers 244, University of Rochester - Center for Economic Research (RCER).
  17. Turnovsky, Stephen J., 1990. "The effects of taxes and dividend policy on capital accumulation and macroeconomic behavior," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 14(3-4), pages 491-521, October.
  18. Roger H. Gordon & Young Lee, 1999. "Do Taxes Affect Corporate Debt Policy? Evidence from US Corporate Tax Return Data," NBER Working Papers 7433, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  19. Ellen R. McGrattan, 1991. "The macroeconomic effects of distortionary taxation," Discussion Paper / Institute for Empirical Macroeconomics 37, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
  20. Kenneth L. Judd, 1984. "The Welfare Cost of Factor Taxation in a Perfect Foresight Model," Discussion Papers 643, Northwestern University, Center for Mathematical Studies in Economics and Management Science.
  21. Nancy L. Stokey & Sergio Rebelo, 1993. "Growth Effects of Flat-Rate Taxes," NBER Working Papers 4426, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  22. Jeremy Greenwood & Gregory W. Huffman, 1991. "Tax analysis in a real business cycle model: on measuring Harberger triangles and Okun gaps," Staff Report 138, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
  23. King, Robert G & Rebelo, Sergio, 1990. "Public Policy and Economic Growth: Developing Neoclassical Implications," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 98(5), pages S126-50, October.
  24. Gruner, Hans Peter & Heer, Burkhard, 2000. "Optimal Flat-Rate Taxes on Capital--A Re-examination of Lucas' Supply Side Model," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 52(2), pages 289-305, April.
  25. Alan J. Auerbach, 1986. "Tax Reform and Adjustment Costs: The Impact on Investment and Market Value," NBER Working Papers 2103, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  26. Howitt, Peter & Sinn, Hans-Werner, 1989. "Gradual Reforms of Capital Income Taxation," Munich Reprints in Economics 19370, University of Munich, Department of Economics.
  27. Gordon, Roger & Lee, Young, 2007. "Interest Rates, Taxes and Corporate Financial Policies," National Tax Journal, National Tax Association, vol. 60(1), pages 65-84, March.
  28. Ellen R. McGrattan & Edward C. Prescott, 2005. "Taxes, regulations, and the value of U.S. and U.K. corporations," Staff Report 309, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
  29. David Carey & Harry Tchilinguirian, 2000. "Average Effective Tax Rates on Capital, Labour and Consumption," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 258, OECD Publishing.
  30. Mathias Trabandt, 2006. "Optimal Pre-Announced Tax Reforms Under Valuable And Productive Government Spending," 2006 Meeting Papers 668, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  31. Lawrence H. Summers, 1981. "Taxation and Corporate Investment: A q-Theory Approach," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 12(1), pages 67-140.
  32. Paul Klein & David Domeij, 1998. "Pre-announced optimal tax reform," Macroeconomics 9804002, EconWPA.
  33. Strulik, Holger, 2003. "Capital tax reform, corporate finance, and economic growth and welfare," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 28(3), pages 595-615, December.
  34. Olivier J. Blanchard, 1984. "Debt, Deficits and Finite Horizons," NBER Working Papers 1389, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  35. Lucas, Robert E, Jr, 1990. "Supply-Side Economics: An Analytical Review," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 42(2), pages 293-316, April.
  36. Auerbach, Alan J., 2002. "Taxation and corporate financial policy," Handbook of Public Economics, in: A. J. Auerbach & M. Feldstein (ed.), Handbook of Public Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 19, pages 1251-1292 Elsevier.
  37. Laitner, John, 1995. "Quantitative Evaluations of Efficient Tax Policies for Lucas' Supply Side Models," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 47(3), pages 471-92, July.
  38. Mertens, Karel & Ravn, Morten O., 2009. "Understanding the Aggregate Effects of Anticipated and Unanticipated Tax Policy Shocks," CEPR Discussion Papers 7505, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  39. Abel, Andrew B., 1982. "Dynamic effects of permanent and temporary tax policies in a q model of investment," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 9(3), pages 353-373.
  40. Osterberg, William P., 1989. "Tobin's q, investment, and the endogenous adjustment of financial structure," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 40(3), pages 293-318, December.
  41. Kim, Se-Jik, 1998. "Growth effect of taxes in an endogenous growth model: to what extent do taxes affect economic growth?," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 23(1), pages 125-158, September.
  42. Turnovsky, Stephen J., 1982. "The incidence of taxes : A dynamic macroeconomic analysis," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(2), pages 161-194, July.
  43. Brunner, Martin & Strulik, Holger, 2002. "Solution of perfect foresight saddlepoint problems: a simple method and applications," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 26(5), pages 737-753, May.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

Citations

Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
as in new window

Cited by:
  1. Kaushik Mitra & George W. Evans & Seppo Honkapohja, 2011. "Policy Change and Learning in the RBC Model," CDMA Working Paper Series 201111, Centre for Dynamic Macroeconomic Analysis.
  2. Strulik, Holger & Trimborn, Timo, 2012. "Laffer strikes again: Dynamic scoring of capital taxes," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 56(6), pages 1180-1199.
  3. Strulik, Holger & Trimborn, Timo, 2013. "The dark side of fiscal stimulus," Center for European, Governance and Economic Development Research Discussion Papers 150, University of Goettingen, Department of Economics.
  4. Strulik, Holger & Trimborn, Timo, 2009. "Fiscal Stimulus: A Neoclassical Perspective," Hannover Economic Papers (HEP) dp-421, Leibniz Universität Hannover, Wirtschaftswissenschaftliche Fakultät.
  5. Kizuku Takao, 2014. "Dynamic effects of anticipated and temporary tax changes in a R&D-Based growth model," Discussion Papers in Economics and Business 14-10, Osaka University, Graduate School of Economics and Osaka School of International Public Policy (OSIPP).
  6. Strulik, Holger & Trimborn, Timo, 2013. "The dark side of fiscal stimulus," Center for European, Governance and Economic Development Research Discussion Papers 150, University of Goettingen, Department of Economics.

Lists

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

Statistics

Access and download statistics

Corrections

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:han:dpaper:dp-406. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Heidrich, Christian).

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.