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From Efficient Markets Theory to Behavioral Finance

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Author Info
Robert J. Shiller

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Abstract

The efficient markets theory reached the height of its dominance in academic circles around the 1970s. Faith in this theory was eroded by a succession of discoveries of anomalies, many in the 1980s, and of evidence of excess volatility of returns. Finance literature in this decade and after suggests a more nuanced view of the value of the efficient markets theory, and, starting in the 1990s, a blossoming of research on behavioral finance. Some important developments since 1990 include feedback theories, models of the interaction of smart money with ordinary investors, and evidence on obstacles to smart money.

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Publisher Info
Article provided by American Economic Association in its journal Journal of Economic Perspectives.

Volume (Year): 17 (2003)
Issue (Month): 1 (Winter)
Pages: 83-104
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Handle: RePEc:aea:jecper:v:17:y:2003:i:1:p:83-104

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  6. Garber, Peter M, 1990. "Famous First Bubbles," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 4(2), pages 35-54, Spring. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  8. John Y. Campbell & Robert J. Shiller, 1989. "The Dividend-Price Ratio and Expectations of Future Dividends and Discount Factors," NBER Working Papers 2100, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  9. Kenneth D. West, 1988. "Dividend Innovations and Stock Price Volatility," NBER Working Papers 1833, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  10. Campbell, John Y & Shiller, Robert J, 1988. " Stock Prices, Earnings, and Expected Dividends," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 43(3), pages 661-76, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  11. Shleifer, Andrei & Summers, Lawrence H, 1990. "The Noise Trader Approach to Finance," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 4(2), pages 19-33, Spring. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  12. Robert J. Shiller, 1999. "Measuring Bubble Expectations and Investor Confidence," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1212, Cowles Foundation, Yale University. [Downloadable!]
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  13. Barberis, Nicholas & Shleifer, Andrei, 2003. "Style investing," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 68(2), pages 161-199, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  14. Figlewski, Stephen, 1981. "The Informational Effects of Restrictions on Short Sales: Some Empirical Evidence," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 16(04), pages 463-476, November. [Downloadable!]
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  17. Christopher J. Jarvis, 1999. "The Rise and Fall of the Pyramid Schemes in Albania," IMF Working Papers 99/98, International Monetary Fund.
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  21. Robert J. Shiller, 1982. "Consumption, Asset Markets, and Macroeconomic Fluctuations," NBER Working Papers 0838, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  22. Robert J. Shiller, 2001. "Bubbles, Human Judgment, and Expert Opinion," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1303, Cowles Foundation, Yale University. [Downloadable!]
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  26. Shiller, Robert J, 1990. "Market Volatility and Investor Behavior," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 80(2), pages 58-62, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  27. John Y. Campbell, 1991. "A Variance Decomposition for Stock Returns," NBER Working Papers 3246, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  28. Randolph B. Cohen & Christopher Polk & Tuomo Vuolteenaho, 2001. "The Value Spread," NBER Working Papers 8242, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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    • Randolph B. Cohen & Christopher Polk & Tuomo Vuolteenaho, 2003. "The Value Spread," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 58(2), pages 609-642, 04. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  30. Charles M. Jones & Owen A. Lamont, 2001. "Short Sale Constraints and Stock Returns," NBER Working Papers 8494, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  31. Ellen R. McGrattan & Edward C. Prescott, 2001. "Taxes, regulations, and asset prices," Working Papers 610, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
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  32. Terrance Odean, 1998. "Are Investors Reluctant to Realize Their Losses?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 53(5), pages 1775-1798, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  33. LeRoy, Stephen F & Porter, Richard D, 1981. "The Present-Value Relation: Tests Based on Implied Variance Bounds," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 49(3), pages 555-74, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  34. Marimon Ramon & Spear Stephen E. & Sunder Shyam, 1993. "Expectationally Driven Market Volatility: An Experimental Study," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 61(1), pages 74-103, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  35. Mark Grinblatt & Bing Han, 2001. "The Disposition Effect and Momentum," University of California at Los Angeles, Anderson Graduate School of Management 1019, Anderson Graduate School of Management, UCLA. [Downloadable!]
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  36. Kahneman, Daniel & Tversky, Amos, 1979. "Prospect Theory: An Analysis of Decision under Risk," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 47(2), pages 263-91, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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