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Bubbles, Human Judgment, and Expert Opinion

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Author Info
Robert J. Shiller () (Yale University, Cowles Foundation)

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Abstract

Research in psychology and behavioral finance is surveyed for evidence to what extent experts such as professional investment managers or endowment trustees may behave in such a way as to help perpetuate speculative bubbles in financial markets. This paper discusses scholarly psychological literature on the representativeness heuristic, overconfidence, attentional anomalies, self-esteem, conformity pressures, salience and justification for insights into weaknesses in expert opinion. The role of the prudent person standard and the news media in influencing experts is considered. The relevance of the literature on testing of the efficient markets theory is discussed.

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File URL: http://cowles.econ.yale.edu/P/cd/d13a/d1303.pdf
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Publisher Info
Paper provided by Cowles Foundation, Yale University in its series Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers with number 1303.

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Length: 17 pages
Date of creation: May 2001
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Handle: RePEc:cwl:cwldpp:1303

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Postal: Yale University, Box 208281, New Haven, CT 06520-8281 USA
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Web page: http://cowles.econ.yale.edu/
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Postal: Cowles Foundation, Yale University, Box 208281, New Haven, CT 06520-8281 USA

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Keywords: Institutional investors investment professionals organizations committees stock market speculative markets behavioral finance feedback groupthink representativeness heuristic conservatism subjective probability prudent person standard ERISA news media attention efficient markets conformity pressures true uncertainty

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G10 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Nicholas Barberis & Andrei Shleifer & Robert W. Vishny, 1997. "A Model of Investor Sentiment," NBER Working Papers 5926, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  2. Robert J. Shiller & John Pound, 1986. "Survey Evidence on Diffusion of Interest Among Institutional Investors," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 794, Cowles Foundation, Yale University. [Downloadable!]
  3. John Y. Campbell & Robert J. Shiller, 2001. "Valuation Ratios and the Long-run Stock Market Outlook: An Update," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1295, Cowles Foundation, Yale University. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  4. Heath, Chip & Tversky, Amos, 1991. " Preference and Belief: Ambiguity and Competence in Choice under Uncertainty," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 4(1), pages 5-28, January.
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Bjuggren, Per-Olof & Wiberg, Daniel, 2005. "Industry Specific Effects in Investment Performance and Valuation of Firms - Marginal q in a Stock Market Bubble," Working Paper Series in Economics and Institutions of Innovation 45, Royal Institute of Technology, CESIS - Centre of Excellence for Science and Innovation Studies. [Downloadable!]
  2. Glaser, Markus & Langer, Thomas & Weber, Martin, 2003. "On the trend recognition and forecasting ability of professional traders," Sonderforschungsbereich 504 Publications 03-06, Sonderforschungsbereich 504, Universität Mannheim & Sonderforschungsbereich 504, University of Mannheim.
  3. Glaser, Markus & Langer, Thomas & Weber, Martin, 2003. "On the Trend Recognition and Forecasting Ability of Professional Traders," CEPR Discussion Papers 3904, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Herrera, Santiago & Perry, Guillermo, 2001. "Tropical bubbles : asset prices in Latin America, 1980-2001," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2724, The World Bank. [Downloadable!]
  5. Qin Xiao & Randolph Gee Kwang Tan, 2006. "Signal Extraction with Kalman Filter: A Study of the Hong Kong Property Price Bubbles," Economic Growth centre Working Paper Series 0601, Nanyang Technolgical University, School of Humanities and Social Sciences, Economic Growth centre. [Downloadable!]
  6. Robert J. Shiller, 2003. "From Efficient Markets Theory to Behavioral Finance," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 17(1), pages 83-104, Winter. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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