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Why Does the Stock Market Fluctuate?

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Author Info
Robert B. Barsky
J. Bradford De Long

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Abstract

Large long-run swings in the United States stock market over the past century correspond to swings in estimates of fundamental values calculated by using a long moving average of past dividend growth to forecast future growth rates. Such a procedure would have been reasonable if investors were uncertain of the structure of the economy. and had to make forecasts of unknown and possibly-changing long-run dividend growth rates. The parameters of the stochastic process followed by dividends over the twentieth century cannot be precisely estimated even today at the century's end. Investors in the past had even less information about the dividend process. In such a context, it is difficult to see how investors can be faulted for implicitly forecasting future dividends by extrapolating past dividend growth.

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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 3995.

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Date of creation: Feb 1992
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Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:3995

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  1. Summers, Lawrence H, 1986. " Does the Stock Market Rationally Reflect Fundamental Values?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 41(3), pages 591-601, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Stephen G. Cecchetti & Pok-sang Lam & Nelson C. Mark, 1990. "Mean Reversion in Equilibrium Asset Prices," NBER Working Papers 2762, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  3. Kleidon, Allan W, 1986. "Variance Bounds Tests and Stock Price Valuation Models," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 94(5), pages 953-1001, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Shiller, Robert J & Siegel, Jeremy J, 1977. "The Gibson Paradox and Historical Movements in Real Interest Rates," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 85(5), pages 891-907, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Mankiw, N Gregory & Romer, David & Shapiro, Matthew D, 1985. " An Unbiased Reexamination of Stock Market Volatility," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 40(3), pages 677-87, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  6. Kleidon, Allan W, 1986. "Anomalies in Financial Economics: Blueprint for Change?," Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 59(4), pages S469-99, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Barsky, Robert B & Summers, Lawrence H, 1988. "Gibson's Paradox and the Gold Standard," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 96(3), pages 528-50, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  8. Mankiw, N Gregory & Romer, David & Shapiro, Matthew D, 1991. "Stock Market Forecastability and Volatility: A Statistical Appraisal," Review of Economic Studies, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 58(3), pages 455-77, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  9. Campbell, John Y & Shiller, Robert J, 1988. " Stock Prices, Earnings, and Expected Dividends," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 43(3), pages 661-76, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  10. LeRoy, Stephen F, 1989. "Efficient Capital Markets and Martingales," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 27(4), pages 1583-1621, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  11. Fama, Eugene F & French, Kenneth R, 1988. "Permanent and Temporary Components of Stock Prices," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 96(2), pages 246-73, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  12. Poterba, James M. & Summers, Lawrence H., 1988. "Mean reversion in stock prices : Evidence and Implications," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 27-59, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  13. LeRoy, Stephen F & Porter, Richard D, 1981. "The Present-Value Relation: Tests Based on Implied Variance Bounds," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 49(3), pages 555-74, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  14. Leroy, S.F., 1989. "Efficient Capital Markets And Martingales," University of California at Santa Barbara, Economics Working Paper Series 13-89, Department of Economics, UC Santa Barbara.
  15. West, Kenneth D, 1988. " Bubbles, Fads and Stock Price Volatility Tests: A Partial Evaluation," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 43(3), pages 639-56, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  16. J. Bradford De Long & Barry Eichengreen, 1991. "The Marshall Plan: History's Most Successful Structural Adjustment Program," NBER Working Papers 3899, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  17. Grossman, Sanford J & Shiller, Robert J, 1981. "The Determinants of the Variability of Stock Market Prices," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 71(2), pages 222-27, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  18. Terry A. Marsh and Robert C. Merton., 1986. "Dividend Behavior for the Aggregate Stock Market," Research Program in Finance Working Papers 163, University of California at Berkeley.
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  19. Shiller, Robert J, 1981. "Do Stock Prices Move Too Much to be Justified by Subsequent Changes in Dividends?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 71(3), pages 421-36, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  20. Shiller, Robert J, 1988. "The Probability of Gross Violations of a Present Value Variance Inequality," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 96(5), pages 1089-92, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  21. Kleidon, Allan W, 1988. "The Probability of Gross Violations of a Present Value Variance Inequality: Reply," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 96(5), pages 1093-96, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  22. Robert J. Shiller, 1984. "Stock Prices and Social Dynamics," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 719R, Cowles Foundation, Yale University. [Downloadable!]
  23. Shiller, Robert J, 1990. "Speculative Prices and Popular Models," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 4(2), pages 55-65, Spring. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  24. Barsky, Robert B & De Long, J Bradford, 1991. "Forecasting Pre-World War I Inflation: The Fisher Effect and the Gold Standard," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 106(3), pages 815-36, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  25. Barsky, Robert B. & Long, J. Bradford De, 1990. "Bull and Bear Markets in the Twentieth Century," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 50(02), pages 265-281, June. [Downloadable!]
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