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"Excess Volatility" and the German Stock Market, 1876-1990

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  • J. Bradford De Long
  • Marco Becht

Abstract

This paper uses long-run real price and dividends series to investigate for the German stock market the questions asked of the U.S. market by Shiller (1989). It tries to determine in what periods and to what degree the German stock market has also possessed excess volatility' in the past century. It finds no evidence of excess volatility in the pre-World War I German stock market. By contrast, there is some evidence of excess volatility in the post-World War II German stock market. The role played by the German Grosbanken in the pre-World War I stock market might be the cause of low comparative volatility of German stock indices before 1914.

Suggested Citation

  • J. Bradford De Long & Marco Becht, 1992. ""Excess Volatility" and the German Stock Market, 1876-1990," NBER Working Papers 4054, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:4054
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Barsky, Robert B. & Long, J. Bradford De, 1990. "Bull and Bear Markets in the Twentieth Century," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 50(2), pages 265-281, June.
    2. John Y. Campbell & Robert J. Shiller, 1988. "Stock Prices, Earnings and Expected Dividends," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 858, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
    3. Campbell, John Y & Shiller, Robert J, 1988. " Stock Prices, Earnings, and Expected Dividends," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 43(3), pages 661-676, July.
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    Cited by:

    1. Dr. Thomas Nitschka, 2014. "The Good? The Bad? The Ugly? Which news drive (co)variation in Swiss and US bond and stock excess returns?," Working Papers 2014-01, Swiss National Bank.
    2. Thomas Nitschka, 2013. "The impact of (global) business cycle risk on the German and British stock markets: Evidence from the first age of globalization," Review of Financial Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 22(3), pages 118-124, September.
    3. Robert B. Barsky & J. Bradford De Long, 1993. "Why Does the Stock Market Fluctuate?," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 108(2), pages 291-311.
    4. Tom Engsted & Jesper Lund, 1997. "Common stochastic trends in international stock prices and dividends: an example of testing overidentifying restrictions on multiple cointegration vectors," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 7(6), pages 659-665.
    5. Hans Joachim Voth, 2001. "Inflation, political instability and stockmarket volatility in interwar Germany," Economics Working Papers 535, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra.
    6. Sandrine Jacob Leal, 2015. "Fundamentalists, Chartists and Asset pricing anomalies," Post-Print hal-01508002, HAL.
    7. Stefan Gissler, 2015. "Slow capital, fast prices: Shocks to funding liquidity and stock price reversals," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2015-43, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    8. Lund, Jesper & Engsted, Tom, 1996. "GMM and present value tests of the C-CAPM: evidence from the Danish, German, Swedish and UK stock markets," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 15(4), pages 497-521, August.
    9. Thorsten Lübbers, 2009. "Is Cartelisation Profitable? A Case Study of the Rhenish Westphalian Coal Syndicate, 1893-1913," Discussion Paper Series of the Max Planck Institute for Research on Collective Goods 2009_09, Max Planck Institute for Research on Collective Goods.

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