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Testable Implications of Indeterminacies in Models with Rational Expectations

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  • Robert P. Flood
  • Robert J. Hodrick

Abstract

The possibility that movements in market prices of assets or goods may be caused by self-fulfilling prophecies, called bubbles or sunspots, has long intrigued market observers. If bubbles or sunspots exist, market prices differ from their fundamental values, and markets do not necessarily allocate resources to their best possible uses. Some might argue then that public policies would be needed to alleviate such problems. This paper surveys the current state of the empirically-oriented literature concerning rational dynamic indeterminacies by which we mean a situation of self-fulfilling prophecy within a rational expectations model. The empirical work in this area concentrates primarily on indeterminacies in price levels, exchange rates and equity prices. We first examine a particular type of explosive indeterminacy, usually called a rational bubble, in a familiar model of equity pricing. We then consider empirical work relating to price level and exchange rate indeterminacies, before examining empirical studies of indeterminacies in stock prices. Finally, we take up some interpretive issues. We find that existing bubbles tests do not establish that rational bubbles exist in asset prices.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 2903.

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Date of creation: Mar 1989
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Publication status: published as The Journal of Economic Perspectives, vol.4, no.1, Winter 1990
Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:2903

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  18. Kenneth D. West, 1986. "A Specification Test for Speculative Bubbles," NBER Working Papers 2067, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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  28. Burmeister, Edwin & Flood, Robert P. & Garber, Peter M., 1983. "On the equivalence of solutions in rational expectations models," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 5(1), pages 311-321, February.
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  35. Tirole, Jean, 1985. "Asset Bubbles and Overlapping Generations," Econometrica, Econometric Society, Econometric Society, vol. 53(6), pages 1499-1528, November.
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Cited by:
  1. Peter Rappoport & Eugene N. White, 1991. "Was there a bubble in the 1929 Stock Market?," NBER Working Papers 3612, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Kholdy, Shady & Sohrabian, Ahmad, 1995. "Testing for the relationship between nominal exchange rates and economic fundamentals," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 6(2), pages 121-134.
  3. Froot, Kenneth A & Obstfeld, Maurice, 1991. "Intrinsic Bubbles: The Case of Stock Prices," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, American Economic Association, vol. 81(5), pages 1189-214, December.

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