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Explosive Behavior in the 1990s Nasdaq: When Did Exuberance Escalate Asset Values?

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  • Peter C. B. Phillips

    (Yale University)

  • Yangru Wu

    (Rutgers University, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research)

  • Jun Yu

    (Singapore Management University)

Abstract

A recursive test procedure is suggested that provides a mechanism for testing explosive behavior, date-stamping the origination and collapse of economic exuberance, and providing valid confidence intervals for explosive growth rates. The method involves the recursive implementation of a right-side unit root test and a sup test, both of which are easy to use in practical applications, and some new limit theory for mildly explosive processes. The test procedure is shown to have discriminatory power in detecting periodically collapsing bubbles, thereby overcoming a weakness in earlier applications of unit root tests for economic bubbles. Some asymptotic properties of the Evans (1991) model of periodically collapsing bubbles are analyzed and the paper develops a new model in which bubble duration depends on the strength of the cognitive bias underlying herd behavior in the market. The paper also explores alternative propagating mechanisms for explosive behavior based on economic fundamentals under time varying discount rates. An empirical application to the Nasdaq stock price index in the 1990s provides confirmation of explosiveness and date-stamps the origination of financial exuberance to June 1995, prior to the famous remark in December 1996 by Alan Greenspan about irrational exuberance in financial markets, thereby giving the remark empirical content.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research in its series Working Papers with number 222007.

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Length: 40 pages
Date of creation: 2007
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:hkm:wpaper:222007

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Keywords: Explosive root; irrational exuberance; mildly explosive process; Nasdaq bubble; periodically collapsing bubble; sup test; time-varying discount rate; unit root test;

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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Peter C.B. Phillips & Shu-Ping Shi & Jun Yu, 2011. "Testing for Multiple Bubbles," Working Papers 09-2011, Singapore Management University, School of Economics.
  2. Otavio Ribeiro de Medeiros and Vitor Leone, 2012. "Multiple Changes in Persistence vs. Explosive Behaviour: The Dotcom Bubble," Working Papers 2012/02, Nottingham Trent University, Nottingham Business School, Economics Division.
  3. Xiaohu Wang & Jun Yu, 2012. "Double Asymptotics for Explosive Continuous Time Models," Working Papers 16-2012, Singapore Management University, School of Economics.
  4. M. Frömmel & R. Kruse, 2011. "Testing for a rational bubble under long memory," Working Papers of Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Ghent University, Belgium 11/722, Ghent University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration.
  5. Vittorio Peretti & Rangan Gupta & Roula Inglesi-Lotz, 2012. "Do House Prices Impact Consumption and Interest Rate in South Africa? Evidence from a Time-Varying Vector Autoregressive Model," Working Papers 201216, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
  6. Xiaohu Wang & Jun Yu, 2011. "Double Asymptotics for an Explosive Continuous Time Model," Working Papers 16-2011, Singapore Management University, School of Economics.
  7. Peter C. B. Phillips & Jun Yu, 2009. "Dating the Timeline of Financial Bubbles During the Subprime Crisis," Finance Working Papers 23051, East Asian Bureau of Economic Research.
  8. Shu-Ping Shi & Peter C. B. Phillips & Jun Yu, 2011. "Specification Sensitivities in Right-Tailed Unit Root Testing for Financial Bubbles," Working Papers 172011, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research.
  9. José Eduardo Gómez & Jair Ojeda Ojeda & Catalina Rey Guerra & Natalia Sicard, 2013. "Testing for Bubbles in Housing Markets: New Results Using a New Method," BORRADORES DE ECONOMIA 010456, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA.
  10. Martin Bohl & Philipp Kaufmann & Patrick Stephan, 2012. "From Hero to Zero: Evidence of Performance Reversal and Speculative Bubbles in German Renewable Energy Stocks," CQE Working Papers 2412, Center for Quantitative Economics (CQE), University of Muenster.
  11. Goodness C. Aye & Rangan Gupta & Alain Kaninda & Wendy Nyakabawo & Aarifah Razak, 2013. "House Price, Stock Price and Consumption in South Africa: A Structural VAR Approach," Working Papers 201309, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
  12. Efthymios Pavlidis & Ivan Paya & D Peel, 2012. "A New Test for Rational Speculative Bubbles using Forward Exchange Rates: The Case of the Interwar German Hyperinflation," Working Papers 18599597, Lancaster University Management School, Economics Department.
  13. Timo Bettendorf & Wenjuan Chen, 2013. "Are There Bubbles in the Sterling-dollar Exchange Rate? New Evidence from Sequential ADF Tests," SFB 649 Discussion Papers SFB649DP2013-012, Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany.

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