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Rational Expectations and the Dynamic Structure of Macroeconomic Models:A Critical Review

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  • Robert J. Shiller

Abstract

The recent literature on rational expectations in macroeconomic theory is surveyed here with the objective of distilling from the various papers useful suggestions for econometric methodology. The paper is not concerned with the empirical questions with which these models have been associated, but rather with the value and usefulness of the concept of rational expectations. The paper begins with a brief discussion of the theory of martingales as it has been applied to microeconomic theory. Then, the general linear rational expectations model (of which most models discussed in the literature are, in terms of their structure, special cases) is developed arid its properties, advantages and drawbacks discussed. The paper concludes with a discussion of the possibilities for estimation arid application of such linear models.

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File URL: http://www.nber.org/papers/w0093.pdf
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 0093.

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Date of creation: Jun 1975
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Publication status: published as Shiller, Robert. "Rational Expectations and the Dynamic Structure of Macroeconomic Models: A Critical Review." Journal of Monetary Economics, Vol. 4,(January 1978), pp. 1-44.
Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:0093

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  1. Roll, Richard, 1974. "Rational Response to the Money Supply," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 82(3), pages 587-97, May/June.
  2. Stanley Diller, 1969. "Expectations in the Term Structure of Interest Rates," NBER Chapters, in: Economic Forecasts and Expectations: Analysis of Forecasting Behavior and Performance, pages 112-166 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Modigliani, Franco & Shiller, Robert J, 1973. "Inflation, Rational Expectations and the Term Structure of Interest Rates," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 40(157), pages 12-43, February.
  4. Jacob A. Mincer, 1969. "Models of Adaptive Forecasting," NBER Chapters, in: Economic Forecasts and Expectations: Analysis of Forecasting Behavior and Performance, pages 83-111 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  5. Taylor, John B, 1975. "Monetary Policy during a Transition to Rational Expectations," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 83(5), pages 1009-21, October.
  6. Cyert, Richard M & DeGroot, Morris H, 1974. "Rational Expectations and Bayesian Analysis," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 82(3), pages 521-36, May/June.
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