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Price Convergence and Information Efficiency in German Natural Gas Markets

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  • Christian Growitsch
  • Marcus Stronzik
  • Rabindra Nepal

Abstract

type="main" xml:id="geer12034-abs-0001"> In 2007, Germany changed network access regulation in the natural gas sector and introduced a so-called entry–exit system. The spot market effects of the reregulation remain to be examined. We use cointegration analysis and a state space model with time-varying coefficients to study the development of natural gas spot prices in the two major trading hubs in Germany and the interlinked spot market in the Netherlands. To analyse information efficiency in more detail, the state space model is extended to an error correction model. Overall, our results suggest a reasonable degree of price convergence between the corresponding hubs. Market efficiency in terms of information processing has increased considerably among Germany and the Netherlands.

Suggested Citation

  • Christian Growitsch & Marcus Stronzik & Rabindra Nepal, 2015. "Price Convergence and Information Efficiency in German Natural Gas Markets," German Economic Review, Verein für Socialpolitik, vol. 16(1), pages 87-103, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:germec:v:16:y:2015:i:1:p:87-103
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    Cited by:

    1. Nick, Sebastian, 2013. "Price Formation and Intertemporal Arbitrage within a Low-Liquidity Framework: Empirical Evidence from European Natural Gas Markets," EWI Working Papers 2013-14, Energiewirtschaftliches Institut an der Universitaet zu Koeln (EWI).
    2. Sebastian Nick, 2016. "The Informational Efficiency of European Natural Gas Hubs: Price Formation and Intertemporal Arbitrage," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 2).
    3. repec:ipg:wpaper:2014-502 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. Gugler, Klaus & Haxhimusa, Adhurim & Liebensteiner, Mario, 2016. "Integration and Efficiency of European Electricity Markets: Evidence from Spot Prices," Department of Economics Working Paper Series 226, WU Vienna University of Economics and Business.
    5. Walter Cont & Diego Barril & Agustín Carbó, 2021. "Price convergence in the Central American regional electricity market," Asociación Argentina de Economía Política: Working Papers 4455, Asociación Argentina de Economía Política.
    6. Ekaterina Dukhanina & Olivier Massol, 2017. "Spatial Integration of Natural Gas Markets A Litterature Review," Working Papers hal-03187890, HAL.
    7. repec:dgr:rugsom:13004-eef is not listed on IDEAS
    8. Dukhanina, Ekaterina & Massol, Olivier & Lévêque, François, 2019. "Policy measures targeting a more integrated gas market: Impact of a merger of two trading zones on prices and arbitrage activity in France," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 132(C), pages 583-593.
    9. Do, Hung Xuan & Nepal, Rabindra & Jamasb, Tooraj, 2020. "Electricity market integration, decarbonisation and security of supply: Dynamic volatility connectedness in the Irish and Great Britain markets," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 92(C).
    10. Bastianin, Andrea & Galeotti, Marzio & Polo, Michele, 2019. "Convergence of European natural gas prices," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 793-811.
    11. Kuper, Gerard & Mulder, Machiel, 2013. "Cross-border infrastructure constraints, regulatory measures and economic integration of the Dutch - German gas market," Research Report 13001-EEF, University of Groningen, Research Institute SOM (Systems, Organisations and Management).
    12. Bhatta, Guna Raj & Nepal, Rabindra & Harvie, Charles & Jayanthakumaran, Kankesu, 2022. "Testing for the uncovered interest parity condition in a small open economy: A state space modelling approach," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 82(C).
    13. repec:dgr:rugsom:13001-eef is not listed on IDEAS
    14. Nick, Sebastian & Thoenes, Stefan, 2014. "What drives natural gas prices? — A structural VAR approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 517-527.
    15. Hulshof, Daan & van der Maat, Jan-Pieter & Mulder, Machiel, 2016. "Market fundamentals, competition and natural-gas prices," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 480-491.
    16. Huszár, Zsuzsa R. & Kotró, Balázs B. & Tan, Ruth S.K., 2023. "Dynamic volatility transfer in the European oil and gas industry," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 127(PA).
    17. Rabindra Nepal and John Foster, 2016. "Testing for Market Integration in the Australian National Electricity Market," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 4).
    18. Szafranek, Karol & Papież, Monika & Rubaszek, Michał & Śmiech, Sławomir, 2023. "How immune is the connectedness of European natural gas markets to exceptional shocks?," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 85(PA).
    19. Kuper, Gerard H. & Mulder, Machiel, 2016. "Cross-border constraints, institutional changes and integration of the Dutch–German gas market," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 182-192.
    20. Woroniuk, D. & Karam, A. & Jamasb, T., 2019. "European Gas Markets, Trading Hubs, and Price Formation: A Network Perspective," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 1964, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    21. Papież, Monika & Rubaszek, Michał & Szafranek, Karol & Śmiech, Sławomir, 2022. "Are European natural gas markets connected? A time-varying spillovers analysis," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).
    22. Nepal, Rabindra & Jamasb, Tooraj, 2012. "Interconnections and market integration in the Irish Single Electricity Market," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 425-434.
    23. Zachmann, Georg, 2013. "A stochastic fuel switching model for electricity prices," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 5-13.
    24. Bravo Caro, José Manuel & Golpe, Antonio A. & Iglesias, Jesús & Vides, José Carlos, 2020. "A new way of measuring the WTI – Brent spread. Globalization, shock persistence and common trends," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 85(C).
    25. Chyong, C-K., 2019. "Challenges to the Future of European Single Market in Natural Gas," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 1918, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading
    • L95 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Transportation and Utilities - - - Gas Utilities; Pipelines; Water Utilities

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