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Monetary Policy and Long-Term Interest Rates: An Efficient Markets Approach

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Frederic S. Mishkin

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Abstract

This paper is an application of efficient markets theory to analyze empirically the relationship of money supply growth and long-term interest rates. This approach has the advantage over earlier research on this subject in that it imposes a theoretical structure on this relationship that allows easier interpretation of the empirical results as well as more powerful statistical tests. In the interest of ascertaining the robustness of the results, many different empirical tests are carried out in this paper, and they uniformly do not support the proposition that increases in the money supply are correlated with declines in long rates.

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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 0517.

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Date of creation: Apr 1981
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Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:0517

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  1. Sule Ozler, 1986. "Valuation of Rescheduled Loans, 1978-1983: A Rational Expectations Approach," UCLA Economics Working Papers 414, UCLA Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  2. Christoph Zenger, 1985. "Zinssätze und Inflation in der Schweiz: Ein alternativer Test des Fisher-Effektes," Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics (SJES), Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics (SSES), vol. 121(IV), pages 353-374, December. [Downloadable!]
  3. David S. Jones & V. Vance Roley, 1984. "Rational Expectations, the Expectations Hypothesis, and Treasury Bill Yields: An Econometric Analysis," NBER Working Papers 0869, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Karen K. Lewis, 1993. "Are Forign Exchange Intervention and Monetary Policy Related and Does it Really Matter?," NBER Working Papers 4377, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. V. Vance Roley & Carl E. Walsh, 1984. "Unanticipated Money and Interest Rates," NBER Working Papers 1278, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  6. Paul Evans, 1981. "Why have interest rates been so volatile?," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Sum, pages 7-20. [Downloadable!]
  7. Sule Ozler, 1988. "Rescheduling and Bank Value: A Rational Expectations Approach," UCLA Economics Working Papers 488, UCLA Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  8. Benjamin J. C. Kim & Noor A. Ghazali, 1998. "The Liquidity Effect Of Money Shocks On Short-Term Interest Rates: Some International Evidence," International Economic Journal, Korean International Economic Association, vol. 12(4), pages 49-63, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Graciela L. Kaminsky & Karen K. Lewis, 1996. "Does foreign exchange intervention signal future monetary policy?," Working Papers 96-7, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  10. Tony Caporale & Barbara McKiernan, 1999. "Monetary policy shocks and interest rates: Further evidence on the liquidity effect," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer, vol. 135(2), pages 306-316, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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