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Was there a bubble in the 1929 Stock Market?

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  • Peter Rappoport
  • Eugene N. White

Abstract

Standard tests find that no bubbles are present in the stock price data for the last one hundred years. In contrast., historical accounts, focusing on briefer periods, point to the stock market of 1928-1929 as a classic example of a bubble. While previous studies have restricted their attention to the joint behavior of stock prices and dividends over the course of a century, this paper uses the behavior of the premia demanded on loans collateralized by the purchase of stocks to evaluate the claim that the boom and crash of 1929 represented a bubble. We develop a model that permits us to extract an estimate of the path of the bubble and its probability of bursting in any period and demonstrate that the premium behaves as would be expected in the presence of a bubble in stock prices. We also find that our estimate of the bubble's path has explanatory power when added to the standard cointegrating regressions of stock prices and dividends, in spite of the fact that our stock price and dividend series are cointegrated.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 3612.

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Date of creation: Feb 1991
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Publication status: published as Journal of Economic History, vol. 53, no. 3 (September 1993), pp. 549-574
Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:3612

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  1. Phillips, P.C.B., 1986. "Testing for a Unit Root in Time Series Regression," Cahiers de recherche 8633, Universite de Montreal, Departement de sciences economiques.
  2. Robert P. Flood & Robert J. Hodrick, 1989. "Testable Implications of Indeterminacies in Models with Rational Expectations," NBER Working Papers 2903, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Robert B. Barsky & J. Bradford De Long, 1989. "Bull and Bear Markets in the Twentieth Century," NBER Working Papers 3171, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  4. Campbell, John & Shiller, Robert, 1987. "Cointegration and Tests of Present Value Models," Scholarly Articles 3122490, Harvard University Department of Economics.
  5. West, Kenneth D, 1987. "A Specification Test for Speculative Bubbles," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 102(3), pages 553-80, August.
  6. Merton, Robert C., 1973. "On the pricing of corporate debt: the risk structure of interest rates," Working papers 684-73., Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Sloan School of Management.
  7. Steven N. Durlauf & Peter C.B. Phillips, 1986. "Trends Versus Random Walks in Time Series Analysis," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 788, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
  8. Ray C. Fair & Matthew D. Shapiro & Kathryn M. Dominguez, 1986. "Forecasting the Depression: Harvard Versus Yale," NBER Working Papers 2095, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  9. Miron, Jeffrey A. & Romer, Christina D., 1990. "A New Monthly Index of Industrial Production, 1884–1940," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 50(02), pages 321-337, June.
  10. White, Eugene Nelson, 1986. "Before the Glass-Steagall Act: An analysis of the investment banking activities of national banks," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 23(1), pages 33-55, January.
  11. Diba, Behzad T & Grossman, Herschel I, 1987. "On the Inception of Rational Bubbles," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 102(3), pages 697-700, August.
  12. Engle, Robert F. & Yoo, Byung Sam, 1987. "Forecasting and testing in co-integrated systems," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 143-159, May.
  13. Newey, Whitney & West, Kenneth, 2014. "A simple, positive semi-definite, heteroscedasticity and autocorrelation consistent covariance matrix," Applied Econometrics, Publishing House "SINERGIA PRESS", vol. 33(1), pages 125-132.
  14. Joe Mattey and Richard Meese., 1986. "Empirical Assessment of Present Value Relations," Research Program in Finance Working Papers 162, University of California at Berkeley.
  15. Fama, Eugene F. & French, Kenneth R., 1989. "Business conditions and expected returns on stocks and bonds," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 25(1), pages 23-49, November.
  16. Hamilton, James D, 1986. "On Testing for Self-fulfilling Speculative Price Bubbles," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 27(3), pages 545-52, October.
  17. Jaffee, Dwight M., 1975. "Cyclical variations in the risk structure of interest rates," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 1(3), pages 309-325, July.
  18. White, Halbert & Domowitz, Ian, 1984. "Nonlinear Regression with Dependent Observations," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 52(1), pages 143-61, January.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Crafts, Nicholas & Fearon, Peter, 2010. "Lessons from the 1930s' Great Depression," CEPR Discussion Papers 8057, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  2. Monique Ebell & Albrecht Ritschl, 2008. "Real origins of the great depression: monopoly power, unions and the American business cycle in the 1920s," Economic History Working Papers 19566, London School of Economics and Political Science, Department of Economic History.
  3. Charles, Amélie & Darné, Olivier, 2014. "Large shocks in the volatility of the Dow Jones Industrial Average index: 1928–2013," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 188-199.
  4. Jon D. Wisman, 2013. "Labor Busted, Rising Inequality and the Financial Crisis of 1929: An Unlearned Lesson," Working Papers 2013-07, American University, Department of Economics.
  5. Campbell, Gareth & Turner, John, 2010. "‘The Greatest Bubble in History’: Stock Prices during the British Railway Mania," MPRA Paper 21820, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  6. repec:pra:mprapa:37980 is not listed on IDEAS
  7. Saumitra, Bhaduri, 2012. "Applying approximate entropy (ApEn) to speculative bubble in the stock market," MPRA Paper 38015, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  8. Caetano, Marco Antonio Leonel & Yoneyama, Takashi, 2009. "A new indicator of imminent occurrence of drawdown in the stock market," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 388(17), pages 3563-3571.
  9. Eugene N. White, 2004. "Bubbles and Busts: The 1990s in the Mirror of the 1920s," FRU Working Papers 2004/09, University of Copenhagen. Department of Economics. Finance Research Unit.
  10. Ozan Hatipoglu & Onur Uyar, 2011. "Do Bubbles Spill Over? Estimating Financial Bubbles in Emerging Markets," Working Papers 2011/06, Bogazici University, Department of Economics.
  11. Nuriddin Ikromov & Abdullah Yavas, 2012. "Cash Flow Volatility, Prices and Price Volatility: An Experimental Study," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 44(1), pages 203-229, January.
  12. John Simon, 2003. "Three Australian Asset-price Bubbles," RBA Annual Conference Volume, in: Anthony Richards & Tim Robinson (ed.), Asset Prices and Monetary Policy Reserve Bank of Australia.
  13. Caetano, Marco Antonio Leonel & Yoneyama, Takashi, 2012. "A method for detection of abrupt changes in the financial market combining wavelet decomposition and correlation graphs," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 391(20), pages 4877-4882.
  14. Charles W. Calomiris, 1993. "Financial Factors in the Great Depression," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 7(2), pages 61-85, Spring.
  15. Georgakopoulos, Nicholas L., 1996. "Why should disclosure rules subsidize informed traders?," International Review of Law and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 16(4), pages 417-431, December.
  16. Zhiguo He & Wei Xiong, 2010. "Financing Speculative Booms," Levine's Working Paper Archive 661465000000000327, David K. Levine.
  17. John R. Conlon, 2008. "Should Central Banks Burst Bubbles? Some Microeconomic Issues," Levine's Working Paper Archive 122247000000002330, David K. Levine.
  18. Ahmad, Mahyudin, 2012. "Duration dependence test for rational speculative bubble: the strength and weakness," MPRA Paper 42156, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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