Forecasting the Depression: Harvard versus Yale
AbstractWas the Depression forecastable? After the crash, how long should it have taken contempo rary forecasters to realize how severe the downturn was going to be? These questions are addressed by studying the predictions of the Harv ard Economic Service and Yale's Irving Fisher during 1929 and the ear ly 1930s. The data assembled by the Harvard and Yale forecasters, tog ether with modern historical data, are subjected to statistical analy sis to learn whether their verbal pronouncements were consistent with the data. Both the Harvard and Yale forecasters were systematically too optimistic. Yet, nothing in the data suggests that the optimism w as unwarranted. Copyright 1988 by American Economic Association.
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Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by American Economic Association in its journal American Economic Review.
Volume (Year): 78 (1988)
Issue (Month): 4 (September)
Other versions of this item:
- Ray C. Fair & Matthew D. Shapiro & Kathryn M. Dominguez, 1986. "Forecasting the Depression: Harvard Versus Yale," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 808, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
- Ray C. Fair & Matthew D. Shapiro & Kathryn M. Dominguez, 1986. "Forecasting the Depression: Harvard Versus Yale," NBER Working Papers 2095, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Hamilton, James D., 1987. "Monetary factors in the great depression," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 19(2), pages 145-169, March.
- Matthew D. Shapiro & N. Gregory Mankiw, 1984.
"Trends, Random Walks, and Tests of the Permanent Income Hypothesis,"
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
725, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
- Gregory Mankiw, N. & Shapiro, Matthew D., 1985. "Trends, random walks, and tests of the permanent income hypothesis," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 16(2), pages 165-174, September.
- Nelson, Charles R & Kang, Heejoon, 1979.
"Spurious Periodicity in Inappropriately Detrended Time Series,"
The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS)
161, University of Warwick, Department of Economics.
- Nelson, Charles R & Kang, Heejoon, 1981. "Spurious Periodicity in Inappropriately Detrended Time Series," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 49(3), pages 741-51, May.
- Mankiw, N Gregory & Miron, Jeffrey A & Weil, David N, 1987.
"The Adjustment of Expectations to a Change in Regime: A Study of the Founding of the Federal Reserve,"
American Economic Review,
American Economic Association, vol. 77(3), pages 358-74, June.
- N. Gregory Mankiw & Jeffrey A. Miron & David N. Weil, 1987. "The Adjustment of Expectations to a Change in Regime: A Study of the Founding of the Federal Reserve," NBER Working Papers 2124, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Romer, Christina D, 1986. "Is the Stabilization of the Postwar Economy a Figment of the Data?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 76(3), pages 314-34, June.
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