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Asymmetry In Economic Fluctuations In The Us Economy: The Pre-War And The 1946--1991 Preiods Compared

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MAGDA KANDIL

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Abstract

The focus of this investigation is on the asymmetric effects of monetary growth shocks in the pre- and post-war periods of United States history. The downward rigidity of nominal wages in the post-war period appears to be an important factor in differentiating the slope of the aggregate supply curve over time. Accordingly, the response of real output and price to expansionary monetary growth shocks is similar in the pre- and post-war periods. In contrast, the aggregate supply curve is flatter in the face of negative monetary growth shocks in the post-war period, excerbating output contraction and moderating price deflation. The apparent change in the asymmetric effects of monetary growth shocks has determined economic performance in the United states over time. [E30, E33, E34, E35]

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Publisher Info
Article provided by Korean International Economic Association in its journal International Economic Journal.

Volume (Year): 16 (2002)
Issue (Month): 1 (April)
Pages: 21-42
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Handle: RePEc:taf:intecj:v:16:y:2002:i:1:p:21-42

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  1. Dickey, David A & Fuller, Wayne A, 1981. "Likelihood Ratio Statistics for Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 49(4), pages 1057-72, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Kandil, Magda, 1999. "The Asymmetric Stabilizing Effects of Price Flexibility: Historical Evidence and Implications," Applied Economics, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 31(7), pages 825-39, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Kandil, Magda, 1998. "Supply-Side Asymmetry and the Non-Neutrality of Demand Fluctuations," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 20(4), pages 785-809, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Magda Kandil, 1992. "Some Evidence on Demand Fluctuations and the Increased Stability of the Post-war American Economy," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 25(4), pages 839-64, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. John B. Taylor, 1986. "Improvements in Macroeconomic Stability: The Role of Wages and Prices," NBER Chapters, in: The American Business Cycle: Continuity and Change, pages 639-678 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!]
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  6. Cover, James Peery, 1992. "Asymmetric Effects of Positive and Negative Money-Supply Shocks," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 107(4), pages 1261-82, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Kandil, Magda, 2001. "Asymmetry in the effects of us government spending shocks: evidence and implications," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 41(2), pages 137-165. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Romer, Christina D, 1986. "Is the Stabilization of the Postwar Economy a Figment of the Data?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 76(3), pages 314-34, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Gray, Jo Anna & Kandil, Magda, 1991. "Is Price Flexibility Stabilizing? A Broader Perspective," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 23(1), pages 1-12, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. Chadha, Binky, 1989. "Is Increased Price Inflexibility Stabilizing?," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 21(4), pages 481-97, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  11. Barro, Robert J, 1977. "Unanticipated Money Growth and Unemployment in the United States," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 67(2), pages 101-15, March.
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  12. Robert J. Barro & Mark Rush, 1980. "Unanticipated Money and Economic Activity," NBER Chapters, in: Rational Expectations and Economic Policy, pages 23-73 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!]
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  13. Driskill, Robert A & Sheffrin, Steven M, 1986. "Is Price Flexibility Destabilizing?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 76(4), pages 802-07, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  14. Romer, Christina, 1986. "Spurious Volatility in Historical Unemployment Data," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 94(1), pages 1-37, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  15. De Long, James Bradford & Summers, Lawrence H, 1986. "Is Increased Price Flexibility Stabilizing?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 76(5), pages 1031-44, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  16. Kandil, Magda & Mirzaie, Aghdas, 2002. "Exchange rate fluctuations and disaggregated economic activity in the US: theory and evidence," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 21(1), pages 1-31, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  17. Kandil, Magda, 1991. "The changing cyclical variability of economic activity in the United States: A sectoral investigation," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 13(1), pages 25-45. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  18. Gray, Jo Anna, 1978. "On Indexation and Contract Length," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 86(1), pages 1-18, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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